One of the biggest cards of the weekend occurs in Shelbyville, Indiana where it is Indiana Derby Day. The folks at Horseshoe Indianapolis have put together a strong 13-race card to celebrate the biggest day of their meeting. The featured event goes as Race 12 (6:40 PM eastern) and makes up the third leg of the late Pick 4. The wager has a $1 minimum denomination and if you play it at 1/ST BET or Xpressbet you will be eligible for our 2 Million Rewards Points Hit & Split. Just head over to the promotional landing page under the promotions tab, register, and you are set to automatically earn your share of the 2 million points. Here is how I plan to attack the sequence that includes three stakes and a state-bred MSW over the sod to close things out.


Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Race 10: Jonathan B Schuster Memorial
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 Seminole Chief; 5 Encino
Backups: 6 Higgins Boat; 3 Wadsworth

Forecast: This 1 1/16-mile event over the grass attracted a solid field of 10 with a noticeable lack of serious early speed. It was difficult to separate this group based on current form, so I will use those I expect to be prominently placed early. This includes 20-1 longshot #8 Seminole Chief. The son of Girvin has always shown ability for Jack Sisterson winning 5 of 15 career starts. He moved into the Joe Sharp barn last out where he was dropped in class leading to a confidence building three-quarters length win at Churchill Downs. Sharp sends him the short trip from Kentucky to Horseshoe Indy where he should find a favorable early position once again, but at a much bigger price. I will make him my lukewarm top choice with plenty of respect to both the Brad Cox runners #4 Wadsworth and #5 Encino, as well as #6 Higgins Boat.


Race 11: Indiana Oaks (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 1 Star Actress
Backups: 5 Prom Queen

Forecast: This year’s Indiana Oaks only drew a compact group of six, but it is competitive nonetheless. 9-5-ML favorite #5 Prom Queen gets some class relief as one of two fillies entered by Brad Cox. The Quality Road filly has disappointed in back-to-back starts, including the Kentucky Oaks (G1) where she did not get out of the gates well costing her any real chance. She returned in the Acorn (G1) where she was caught in a tight spot early and did her running from last, but had nothing left late when the real running started. There are certainly reasons to believe that the decrease in competition and a cleaner trip will lead to a much-improved performance, but at a short price she is not an attractive wagering option. I will instead take a swing with the longest shot on the board #1 Star Actress. The George Krikorian homebred tried the turf for the first time last out, but has been moved back to the dirt by trainer Bill Mott. She has just one win, but has not had things her way at all in her dirt races. She was down on a dead rail most of the way in her debut before finishing full of run late. Then, she handled business with a cleaner break in her next start before losing little in defeat in the Ashland (G1) and being caught wide throughout and racing against the flow on Oaks Day. She may have a lot of ground to make up late, but she is more talented than her running lines suggest. Hopefully, she shows it in this spot.


Race 12: Indiana Derby (G3)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 8 Leading Change; 3 Zihnal
Backups: None

Forecast: With #9 Desert Gate set to run in the Iowa Derby, it is likely that #8 Leading Change is sent off the heavy favorite in this year’s Indiana Derby. The Wathnan Racing colt was dominant on debut going 7-furlongs at Churchill Downs coasting to a 6-length romp. He has to prove himself at two-turns and against winners, but looks like the real deal making him tough to want to take on with confidence. That said, I will also include #3 Zihnal. I have tried to bet this gelding before in stakes spots, but he has been scratched by trainer Jonathan Thomas both times. He clearly has a lot of upside based on the way this highly respectable barn has handled him from the get-go and should get overlooked at the windows. I am unsure why the scratched him out of the Ohio Derby, but he will be on all of my tickets along with Leading Change if he remains in this spot.


Race 13:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 3 Koger Lane
Backups: 5 Haziel; 9 Hotline Iris

Forecast: The second and third place finishers from an earlier state-bred MSW at 1 1/16-miles over the turf make plenty of sense in the finale. #5 Haziel was forced to make a four-wide middle move while #9 Hotline Iris stalked three-wide into the first turn and was unable to save ground. Both were out finished that day, but in with significant chances again. That said, I prefer the likely value of second-time starter #3 Koger Lane. The daughter of Unbridled Express debuted in a dirt sprint last month for trainer Aaron West. She was out of the gates slow and ran and underwhelming third, but stretches out here and moves to the grass. Both have every right to help her against a modest group of non-winners. Hopefully, she takes to the trip with Michell Murrill back in the saddle.