With just over two months until the 2026 Breeders’ Cup World Championships are held at Keeneland Race Course, it’s time to start thinking about what each of the championship races may look like and who the main players might be. Each week, I’ll adjust my personal rankings accordingly based on races and news from the weekend prior. The juvenile divisions will enter the equation once the marquee summer meetings have concluded.

Below you’ll find my rankings for nine of the Breeders' Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order.

CLASSIC (See my YouTube video analysis of Classic here.)

1 - Forever Young

To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man; likely to prep in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at BEL before heading to Kentucky…the best in the world on dirt when on his game

2 - Sovereignty

The champ was back and arguably better than ever in the Whitney; may indeed be a Saratoga move up but that doesn’t preclude him from winning a race like the Classic at KEE

3 - Magnitude

If you forgive his Saratoga form, he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney

4 - Knightsbridge

His best figure would defeat all comers, but the question about distance / class remains; will answer some, not all, questions this weekend in the PClassic at DMR


DISTAFF

1 - Nitrogen

Ran arguably the best race of her career in defeat in the Whitney; outside chance she takes on boys again but strictly the horse to beat if she tackles the females in the Distaff

2 - Counting Stars

Nitrogen’s biggest obstacle to Distaff glory may be her stablemate, who is clearly the best 3YO filly in the land; runs Saturday in the Alabama as a massive favorite (deservedly so)

3 - Always a Runner

The Kentucky Oaks winner is going away from Counting Stars to run in the Cotillion at Parx; may be of comparable ability to Counting Stars but down in the head-to-head battles

4 - Splendora

Not completely sold that she’s truly a 9F type but hard to argue with her 2026 record to this point; defending BC FM Sprint winner gives Baffert options to either go long or turn her back


SPRINT

1 - Englishman

Staggeringly good effort in the Woody Stephens, earning a 115 Beyer; returns in the Allen Jerkens at Saratoga in two weeks, where a repeat of the Stephens would result in another G1 victory

2 - T O Elvis

Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form - but may not need to find much

3 - Book’em Danno

Would have been the first or second-choice in last year’s BC Sprint; two necks away from being undefeated in his last eight starts

4 - Listenupshance

Narrowly defeated by Danno in the True North but came back to win the G1 Bing Crosby at DMR; continues to improve as the season progresses…if that trend continues, he’s interesting at a price


FM SPRINT

1 - Kilwin

Light on figs but undefeated on dirt in three tries, including a G1; division is deep but have a strong inkling we’ve still not seen this one’s best

2 - Explora

Filly had been screaming for a turn back all spring but stayed the Oaks course; since the turn back has looked like a monster…figs still light compared to the older fillies and mares but on the right path

3 - Eclatant

The best version of Eclatant is probably the best female sprinter on dirt, but she’s not always fired her best on the clock; good to know her career defining race came over course / distance in spring’s G1 Madison @ KEE

4 - Ways and Means

May simply be a Saratoga freak and a shell of herself away from the Spa; how good is her good? Arguably the best - but does that version show up in October at KEE?


TURF

1 - Burnham Square

His figs may be tapering off some but his win over course / distance this spring makes him a legit threat against all comers; a 107 Beyer in this race historically puts you right there at the wire

2 - Calandagan

Bit of a leap with any of the Euros regarding who is / isn’t coming over; may not be visiting the winner’s circle as much as he was in 2025 but still capable of firing elite-level shots at 12F

3 - Benvenuto Cellini

Has long been discussed as being the cream of the 3YO crop in Europe; first try against elders at Ascot was fine…nothing more, nothing less

4 - Ethical Diamond

The surprise winner of last year’s BC Turf (with a 107 Beyer) hasn’t had much of a campaign in 2026; stating the obvious - if he can get back to the Del Mar form he displayed last fall, he’s dangerous


MILE

1 - Gstaad

If not for the since retired Bow Echo, we may be looking at an unbeaten 3YO campaign comprised of four G1s to this point; already shown that American style of racing is no issue with last year’s BC Juvenile Turf win @ DMR

2 - Blue Bolt

She’s done little wrong in her career in Europe and has established herself as the clear leader of the filly and mare milers; Juddmonte filly would be extremely dangerous if she came over

3 - Notable Speech

Has been known to lay an egg from time to time but his North American record is quite strong; miserably unlucky at Keeneland in April, likely wins that G1 with any sort of racing luck

4 - Deterministic

Hasn’t lost a turf race since October 2024; five consecutive 100+ Beyers at distances ranging from 8F to 9.5F is no small feat…the best of the American bunch at the moment


FM TURF

1 - Thundering On

Time hasn’t been kind to the form of the Epsom Oaks, however her turn of foot was electric that day; assuming she comes over, would have to think she’s in with a big chance for Joseph O’Brien

2 - Diamond Necklace

Unbeaten filly of Aidan O’Brien’s has acted on a variety of ground over a variety of distances…nothing really to knock other than her price come BC Saturday; could see her go longer in BC Turf if connections want 12F

3 - Precise

Another of AOB’s who is at the elite level; she’s not as good as Blue Bolt (and others) at the mile, so wonder if a stretch to FM Turf’s 9.5F @ KEE is in the cards

4 - Kathynmarissa

As solid as they come in the U.S., winning the G1 Diana at Saratoga in most recent start; race being run at 9.5F works to her advantage and she’s trained by Chad Brown, who has multiple FM Turf victories on his resume


TURF SPRINT

1 - Cy Fair

Has done nothing wrong in her career and exits a win at Saratoga that has already produced two next-out winners; a 3YO filly won this race last year

2 - Ag Bullet

One of the main beneficiaries of the 5.5F trip this year; rock solid mare who fires her best more often than not

3 - Shisospicy

Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s

4 - John the Beer Man

Perhaps a slight notch below the top options but sharp at the moment and the 5.5F distance works to his advantage


DIRT MILE

1 - Knightsbridge

Another division that is in flux right up until entries are taken; assuming the distance of the Classic doesn’t work for him, hard to argue with Knightsbridge as the Belle of the Ball for the Dirt Mile

2 - Napoleon Solo

The Preakness winner would probably be a likelier Classic starter - but would have a better chance of winning the Dirt Mile; tactical speed and already a G1 winner at the mile distance in his career

3 - Bishops Bay

Solid older veteran who isn’t a true G1 caliber runner, but depending on who shows up here…this may not be a race of true G1 caliber

4 - Chunk of Gold

Gave Bishops Bay all he could handle in the Iselin last weekend @ MON - perhaps a rising 4YO who could steal this at a decent number; owns a win over the course last fall by more than 8L