The Lead:
Del Mar’s biggest weekend surfs to a close Sunday, wrapping up the Pacific Classic festivities with its Del Mar Derby Day card. The 1-1/8 miles turf test has been run at the oceanside oval since 1945 and has been won by the likes of Relaunch, Hawkster, Tight Spot, Da Hoss, Twirling Candy and Om.

The typical 5 pm ET first post time will be in play for the 9-race lineup with the featured Derby set Race 7 at for 8:00 pm ET.

​​Field Depth:
UNRIVALED TIME is the only graded-stakes winner in the lineup, winning at the Grade 3 level over this course last year. PAVLOVIAN is Grade 2-placed, while PROLETARIAT and SECURED FREEDOM are Grade 3-placed. The toughest strengths of schedule clearly belong to PAVLOVIAN and SECURED FREEDOM.
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Pace:
Expect early pace from rail-drawn PROLETARIAT, while PAVLOVIAN has shown early interest on dirt but that may or may not transfer to turf. TRIBALISM could be in the early hunt if the rider chooses. The pace looks comfortable for those near the front and a deep closer has an uphill battle.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

1-PROLETARIAT (pictured): Loved him opening day in the Del Mar Derby prep, the Oceanside, when he dominated at 6-1 odds and outran even my expectations. A 24-1/5 second quarter sealed the front-running deal and allowed him to kick home the last quarter is a mighty 22-4/5 over a mile. Pedigree says he can get the trip and his 93 BRIS late pace figure in the Oceanside adds support. Absolutely the horse to beat with no heavy hitters shipping in to disrupt his place in the local sophomore turf ranks.

2-UNRIVALED TIME: Among several in here involved in some traffic woes around the far turn of the Oceanside, but he wasn’t going anywhere at the time and probably least-impacted among the returnees. Hasn’t really improved since winning the Cecil B. DeMille, but should appreciate the additional distance and will save all the ground early as the rail speed clears out inside him.

3-SECURED FREEDOM: Oceanside runner-up made a credible turf debut in that one after testing the Santa Anita Derby trail on dirt earlier this year. Trainer Tim Yakteen’s barn is firing right now and this consistent colt matches up on class. Sharp works since the Oceanside and makes for a very logical contender if Proletariat doesn’t fire a similar shot to his last.

4-TRIBALISM: Stakes debut for stretch-out candidate whose pedigree leans heavily toward the miles he had been running prior. Light 84 and 85 BRIS late pace figures going a furlong shorter raise doubts. Joel Rosario has been riding very well of late and he’ll have a decision to make in terms of attacking the pace or stalking. Could get stuck doing the dirty work, a tough task when distance is already in doubt.

5-BUST OUT: Joins Tribalism in the gate here representing trainer Michael McCarthy, who won this race 2 years ago with Formidable Man. Jockey Umberto Rispoli looks for an unprecedented Del Mar Derby 3-peat in the saddle and his fourth career score in this race. Complexity colt had no in-race excuse in the Oceanside when a non-threatening fourth, but was returning just 20 days’ rest and a road trip to Kentucky. Sharp 47-2/5 workout Aug. 7 may tip that he’s better this time.

6-PAVLOVIAN: After 13 starts on dirt, including a Sunland Derby win, a Louisiana Derby head runner-up and a Kentucky Derby last-place finish, trainer Doug O’Neill will give turf a shot. The barn won this race in 2022 with Slow Down Andy, a fellow Cal-bred dirt horse who also failed in the Real Good Deal earlier in his Del Mar summer season. Sire Pavel’s offspring are just 3-37 on the Del Mar turf with 76% of them out of the money (coming into this racing week).

7-JORDI BEAR: Irish export has been with Phil D’Amato for 2 domestic starts now and has the biggest beef to make with the traffic issues in the Oceanside. He regrouped nicely, but could only muster a sixth-place finish despite a race-best 95 BRIS late pace figure among the returnees. This gelding was a length off Proletariat in their prior Santa Anita allowance sprint and adds blinkers. He’ll be closer to the action than last and with a clean trip will be the biggest threat to the favorite.

8-MELISMATIC: A second Phil D’Amato Irish export in the lineup, this July 19 local turf mile allowance winner hasn’t show enough late oomph to me to project to 1-1/8 miles. He’s by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues and his 77-88-89 BRIS late pace figures going shorter don’t indicate the extra ground helps. D’Amato won this race in 2014 (Midnight Storm) and 2023 (Conclude).

9-CHARLIE’S CURLIN: Trainer Jeff Mullins has the rail-drawn favorite in Proletariat and bookends the field with this longshot, seventh-place Oceanside pursuer. The Curlin colt was part of the traffic trouble last time, but already was backing away at the time and tends to lose steam on the back end of his races. He does have 4 workouts since the Oceanside vs. 3 for the others, bouncing back on the workout tab just 9 days after that race. Could be a sign he’s well and attracts Juan Hernandez off Tribalism.

Most Likely Exotics Contender:
PROLETARIAT should enjoy a reasonably comfortable trip up front and has been aces of late.

Best Longshot Contender:
CHARLIE’S CURLIN doesn’t have enough starch to contend for the top spot, but maybe sticks for a longshot share of the superfecta.
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Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$75 exacta PROLETARIAT over JORDI BEAR. $25 exacta PROLETARIAT over SECURED FREEDOM.