by Brian Nadeau
June 29, 2018
Let’s change gears a bit this week, as they’ll be giving away millions Saturday at Gulfstream Park, since the 20-cent Rainbow 6 must be paid out. And with a pool that could well approach $10 million, if not more, it warrants some serious attention, so let’s have at it.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 3pm Saturday for an update. ***
Race 9: 2yof 25k MCL at 4 ½ furlongs
Definitely tab the tote here, as seven of the 10 runners make their debut, and the two proven runners aren’t overly inspiring either. This doesn’t seem like a spot to get cute, so I’m using all the logical firsters, which include #6 SUNSHINE BAY (7-2), #7 BARGAINAIRE (4-1) and #9 MIDTOWN ROSE (6-1). I’ll also use all three of the experienced runners, since #10 PASO A LA REINA (10-1), #2 AWESOME FRIDAY (6-1) and #3 SHHH IT’S A SECRET (10-1) get bonus points for having met the starter and won’t have to improve a ton to threaten.
Pk6 A horses (listed in order of preference): 6,7,9,10,2,3
It’s tough to completely toss #8 RONEHANDOFBLACKJACK (5-1), as Ziadie is as sharp as they come, but this really isn’t his type, which is why she’s just a B. The price should be right on #5 CORN OFF THE COB (12-1), and while the works are meek, Crinchton has some big ROIs with these types, and is 4-for-12 with Gonzales.
Pk6 B horses (listed in order of preference): 8,5
Race 10: 3up 12.5k MCL at 1-mile on the turf
When you’re talking about a field littered with lifetime maidens, it’s never a bad idea to side with those who have shown promise without showing they are allergic to the winner’s circle, which is why I’ll lean on #2 FRIEND ZONE (4-1) and 9 SPANISH DUDE (6-1), as both showed potential in their lone turf starts, have plenty of upside, and meet no one to be scared of.
Pk6 A horses: 2,9
Behind the top-2 are proven refusers, so tread lightly here, even though #5 NONNO NINO (7-2) and #10 ASSERTION (6-1) have run races that make them players here. The wildcard is #11 IRON JOHNNY (3-1), who goes off the Dobles claim and figures, but drew terribly, plus it will be hard to improve his modest form off of Maker.
Pk6 B horses: 5,10,11
Race 11: 3up 6.25k claimer at 6 furlongs
The definition of a deep spread here, and the all-ball doesn’t seem like a bad idea if you can go 14-deep. We can’t, of course, but I’ll spread as far and wide as I can and use anyone with a hint of form, with a preference on top for those who have tactical speed; #13 JERSEY STREET (10-1), #5 WILD GOOD (10-1), #12 FRANCESCO APPEAL (12-1), #9 JOURNEY’S END (6-1), #10 BIG AWESOME (6-1), #1 DASH OF DAZZLE (8-1), #4 STRONG COMPOSITION (12-1), and #6 FACE OF WINNER (9-2).
*** Please note if either #15 DREAM SATURDAY (5-2) or #16 WOODBURN (15-1) draw in, they are A’s as well.
Pk6 A horses: 13,5,12,9,10,1,4,6
When you go eight-deep, you either have to think you’ll have the winner, or simply fight again another day if you don’t, so there will be no backups here.
Pk6 B horses: NONE
Race 12: 3upfm GII Princess Rooney at 7 furlongs
There’s little doubt that #1 CURLIN’S APPROVAL (6-5), who aired in this race last year and loves GP, is the gal to beat, but the rail is a worry, and her form this year hasn’t been as sharp, so while she’s an A, she’s not the top pick. That honor goes to the up-and-comer #3 MY MISS TAPIT (4-1), who was awesome winning her seasonal debut here, is 3-for-3 locally, should sit a dream trip off all the speed, and looks like an exciting new shooter.
Pk6 A horses: 3,1
When you have a strong opinion, and a sequence with a few wide-open races where you don’t, you have to take a stand somewhere, so there will be no backups here, though #6 Treble (15-1) would rank next on the list.
Pk6 B horses: NONE
Race 13: 3up GIII Smile Sprint at 6 furlongs
The Dubai layoff can be tough on a horse, but #8 X Y JET (4-5) simply lays over this field, has worked huge for this, and drew a perfect outside attack post, so even if he’s not at his very best, he should still be too good for these.
Pk6 A horses: 8
It’s tough to envision X Y Jet losing, and even tougher to figure out who would win if he does, so there’s no backups here.
Pk6 B horses: NONE
Race 14: 3up 10k MCL at 6 furlongs
The finale looks like a three-horse race, which is how I’ll play it, while running the risk of being Captain Obvious. I wouldn’t want too short of a price on #5 TALKING POINT (4-1), but he does have upside in a race where few do and seems easier to trust than #4 XIROMA (5-1), who just beat him last time, so he gets the nod. The latter returned off the long layoff to run big, but you worry about the bounce, though he’s a must-use. The other must-use is #1 ALLURSTRA (3-1), who drops, and while he has never run on a fast main track, that 5th two-back in the slop against better would make him tough to beat here.
Pk6 A horses: 5,1,4
We’ve had a lot of coverage already, and the tickets aren’t cheap, plus the gap from the top-3 to the rest seems decisive, so there will be no backups at the end. Plus, if we are fortunate enough to be alive, we can always hedge in the hopes of guaranteeing a profit.
Pk6 B horses: NONE
How I'm Betting
Main Ticket: 6,7,9,10,2,3 with 2,9 with 13,5,12,9,10,1,4,6 with 3,1 with 8 with 5,1,4 = $115.20
R9 Backup: 8,5 with 2,9 with 13,5,12,9,10,1,4,6 with 3,1 with 8 with 5,1,4 = $38.40
R10 B Backup: 6,7,9,10,2,3 with 5,10,11 with 13,5,12,9,10,1,4,6 with 3,1 with 8 with 5,1,4 = $144