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Friday, July 12: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 12, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saratoga 
Friday, July 12, 2019

Today’s Day Maker: Fifth Race - Lotta Ott

Today’s Bullet Drills: Second and Seventh Race

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Derby Memories; 5-French Revolution; 9-Oso Negro 

Forecast: The opener is a messy maiden claiming nine-furlong main track affair. Derby Memories, in his second off a long layoff for Gargan (strong stats), was given a run on turf at Churchill Downs against tougher foes and was never in the hunt but should get much more serious today with this drop to the bottom. He’s shown some early speed, and in a field comprised mostly of plodders the son of Curlin could find himself on or near a soft pace. A sharp half-mile move in 48 seconds (fourth fastest of 54) last week should have him on edge. Oso Negro hasn’t shown much yet in two starts, but he’s a first-time-in-a-claimer play switching to the main track and based on his grass numbers he should be a major player in this league. The $440,000 son of Medaglia d’Oro is clearly being culled by the barn but his work tab at Monmouth Park looks healthy, so if he can run at all this would be a nice spot to show it. French Revolution has a similar pattern to Derby Memories; he has the second-off-a-layoff angle and is moving to dirt while dropping in class. Numbers-wise, he’s a fit. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play in a chaotic affair in which nothing would surprise us. 

RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 13-Daddy Knows 
Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf, and that’s good news for main track only Daddy Knows, who adds blinkers and should dominate this field, but at a short price that probably won’t be worth taking. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single, or simply pass the race. 

RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Complicit; 4-Dream Passage 
Forecast: Complicit hasn’t been seen since last October, but the daughter of Blame has trained well enough to be fit and ready for Brown (29% with comebackers) and has won off the bench in the past. She has good tactical speed, two prior wins under I. Ortiz, and is likely to benefit from the projected race-shape that favors in her second-flight style. On numbers, she’s a solid fit. Dream Passage seeks her third straight, have won from a pair from lesser fields in gate-to-wire style, both over yielding ground. She probably won’t have everything her own way today, especially if sprinter-stretching-out Pauseforthecause remains in the field, but she’s won from well off the pace as well, so Rosario can let the race develop before committing to a strategy. These are two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Complicit. 

RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Soul P Say; 4-Kahramani; 8-Lord Simba; 9-Big Muddy 
Forecast: Low-level claimers sprint seven furlongs in the fourth race, an open affair that has several possibilities. Soul P Say was claimed for $32,000 in April at Oaklawn Park and today shows up for $12,500, obviously an unhealthy pattern. But this barn has a high percentage with first-off-the-claim plays, so the connections might simply be trying to steal a purse. We like this route-to-sprint angle for the son of Soldat, who may be most comfortable around one turn, so the educated guess is that the gelding will fire a big shot fresh, something he’s proven he can do. Big Muddy lands the cozy outside draw while moving up a notch following a strong one-turn mile score at Belmont Park, and a similar effort today puts him in the picture right back. At age five he’s lightly raced (four wins in 10 starts) so he may have another forward move or two in him. Kahramani has been protected in each of his last seven starts since being claimed for $10,000 last November and hasn’t sprinted since winning at Keeneland for $7,500 a month earlier. The Sharp-trained son of Haynesfield should fire his best shot from off the pace and is worth including on a ticket or two, as is Lord Simba, a graded stakes winning sprinter in his younger days when in California for Baffert. The Kenneally-trained gelding earned a confidence-building win in a restricted $16,000 affair in Kentucky last time out; however, based strictly on speed figures he’ll need to step it up in this open claiming affair. 

RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Good Shabbos; 4-Lotta Ott 
Forecast: Lotta Ott, a Day Makers for us today, looks like a very live first-timer from the Asmussen barn in this maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. Bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree, the $110,000 Keeneland yearling buy breezed a half-mile from the gate at Keeneland in 47 2/5 seconds in mid-June, the second fastest of 112 for the distance, and then went 46 3/5 seconds from the gate (third fastest of 66) later in the month. The barn hits with 22% with debut numbers while showing a positive ROI, so we’re expecting a major effort first crack out of the box. Good Shabbos has the benefit of a prior run, having missed by a nose in a straight maiden sprint at Monmouth Park last month. She was more than three clear of the rest and earned a good speed figure, so the daughter of Munnings probably is worth including as a back-up or a saver. 

RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 1-Heavy Roller 
Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf. Heavy Roller should handle this soft assignment with anything close to his best while returning to his ($50,000) claim level for the first time since last September. First or second in 13 of 29 starts, the Sharp-trained gelding will greatly appreciate the class relief and should take full advantage of the opportunity. He’s a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 7: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: B- 
Single: 9-Filly Dilly; 15-Saloon Girl 
Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf. Filly Dilly won at first asking in an off-the-turfer at Belmont Park like a nice sort and has come back to train well since, so the daughter of Majesticperfection should be capable of winning right back. One of these days she may get a chance to run on grass, but for now she’s showing that the main track fits her just fine. Main track only Saloon Girl broke her maiden impressively last fall with a strong number and then disappeared. If the Ward-trained filly returns as well as she left, she’ll take some beating. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play, with Filly Dilly getting the edge on top. 

RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 5-Doups Point 
Forecast: With the scratching of our Day Maker Danebury, the focus shifts to Doups Point in this five-runner allowance event over nine furlongs on dirt. So far in his young career the son of Point Entry has preferred to finish second (five times) rather than win (once) and having failed as the favorite in his last two he may be hard to trust. He’ll be a short price again and really shouldn’t have any excuses. We’ll make him a no value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race. 

RACE 9: Post 5:51 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Henbree; 4-Offering Plan; 8-Qurbaan 
Forecast: Qurbaan won the Bernard Baruch Stakes over this course last year and is exiting three Grade-1 events, so this drop into Grade-3 competition might be just what he needs to get back on the beam. We like the blinkers off angle and the switch to Rosario, so we’re expecting the McLaughlin-trained veteran to be along in time. Offering Plan prefers to lag and blast home, and if a decent-to-fast pace develops as is projected his chances increase. The Brown-trained New York-bred 7-year-old always seems to run well at Saratoga. Hembree is in good form for Maker and should settle somewhere in mid-pack and then produce whatever run he’s capable of. Voodoo Song may be a race away for Rice (so-so stats with layoffs), but his record over the Saratoga turf course (5 wins in 6 starts) is hard to ignore. Still, the race flow doesn’t look too favorable for what has always been a need-the-lead type, and with Gidu certain to go from his inside draw there’s a strong possibility that the ‘Song will be relegated to a stalker or presser role, and that’s never really been his thing. 

RACE 10: Post 6:25 PT. Grade: C 
Use: 2-Fight Night; 5-Abby Normal 
>Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and leaves us with little to work with. Fight Night shows up in a seller for the first time, and in her second start off a layoff she’s likely to produce a forward move. Her California speed figures, if repeated today, makes her the one to beat, so in a weak maiden claimer for older fillies and mares we’ll give her the edge on top. Abby Normal has no early speed but has shown a desire to finish and if with some help up front the daughter of Birdstone will be heard from in the final furlong.