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Saturday, July 13: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 13, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saratoga 
Saturday, July 13, 2019

Today’s Day Makers: 
Fifth Race
Sixth Race

Today’s Bullet Drills – Preview of the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga on July 13th, 2019 Based on Works

RACE 1: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 9-Warm; 10-She’s Not Bluffing 
Forecast: She’s Not Bluffing earned a pretty good number for the maiden $25,000 level when she graduated for fun last month at Belmont Park and is realistically spotted for a repeat score in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 extended sprint for fillies and mares. Drawn comfortably outside (just as she was in her win), the daughter of Verrazano should fold into a cozy stalking position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Warm shows up in a claimer for the first time, returns to the main track, and is shortened to her maiden-breaking distance of seven furlongs, so there’s plenty to like about this Monmouth Park shipper. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics, with preference on top to She’s Not Bluffing 

RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Winifred J; 2-Prisoner’s Dilemma; 5-Linda’s Ballet 
Forecast: Linda’s Ballet, Winifred J, and Prisoner’s Dilemma all were entered and withdrawn yesterday in a similar maiden $40,000 claiming grass sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. Linda’s Ballet stumbled at the start in an off-the turf affair last month, so we’ll ignore that outing and key on a pair of solid third place finishes sprinting before that on the Belmont Park lawn vs. New York-bred maiden special weight foes. We like the blinkers off move (good angle for this barn) combined with the class drop, so let’s put the daughter of Maclean’s Music slightly on top. Winifred J has a grass race last November that charts very well here, and after being off the track since February following a pair of poor runs, the Barker-trained daughter of Blame could fire a big shot fresh, especially when factoring in the first-time-for-a-tag angle. Prisoner’s Dilemma is yet another trying claimers for the first time and should improve enough to pose a strong threat. Her runner-up effort at the Big A two races back puts her solidly in the picture. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Linda’s Ballet on top. 

RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Cucina; 5-By Your Side 
Forecast: The first two-year-old stakes races of the Saratoga season drew just five runners, with By Your Side getting top billing after a debut win at Churchill Downs that earned a pretty good speed figure. The Kenneally-trained son of Constitution likely will enjoy today’s extra half-furlong and his cozy outside draw should allow I. Ortiz to pop and go or stalk and pounce, depending upon how the race flow goes. Cucina actually earned a better Beyer figure (75-70) than By Your Side in his maiden-breaking win, but that victory was accomplished over a sloppy surface, so the number might not be totally trustworthy. We’ll certainly use him in our rolling exotics, but the main push goes to By Your Side. 

RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 6-Zyramid 
Forecast: Zyramid left at 40 cents on the dollar in his debut at Churchill Downs but was beaten into third, winding up six lengths behind next-out winner Halfmoon Reef after pressing the pace to the top of the lane. Perhaps he didn’t care for the off track, or maybe he was simply over bet, but at any rate we’ll find out what he’s made of today. There are six first-timers in the field, none of whom look especially attractive, so let’s sink or swim with Zyramid in our rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Originator/1a-Noble Freud; 7-Turf War; 8-Catch a Thrill 
Forecast: This first-level allowance turf dash for fillies and mares looks on paper to be highly competitive. Small ticket players looking for a single should strongly consider Catch a Thrill. Apparently most comfortable as a late-running turf sprinter, she made the running and then faded two-turning in the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland last time out, so the daughter of City Zip turns back in trip, drops in class, and switches to Davis, one of this stable’s go-to riders. We’re expecting the Mark Casse-trained sophomore to be along in time. Originator launches a comeback for Wilkes (solid stats with layoff runners) and ran well over this course and distance as a 3-year-old when stakes placed in the listed Coronation Cup. The daughter of Artie Schiller should be running on strongly late. Noble Freud, coupled with Originator in the wagering, has been freshened since February, won sprinting on grass here two years ago, and could fire a big shot off the bench for a barn that boasts stellar stats with layoff runners. She may be the best of the speed types. Turf War makes her U.S. debut for Brown following a series of steady workouts on dirt at Monmouth Park. Her form in the French provinces last year wasn’t bad, and she could easily be better type on this side of the pond, especially as a first-time Lasix user. You have to toss her in somewhere. 

RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Kokokomo; 4-Enforceable 
Forecast: Here’s the first two-year-old maiden route affair of the season. Kokokomo has been well-backed in both of his starts but has yet to show much early speed, so this stretch out to a middle distance and the switch to grass was not unexpected. The Pletcher barn hits at 24% with the sprint-to-route angle and the son of Uncle Mo finishes his sprints like he’s begging for more ground. At 8-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble. Enforceable also has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern we like and a pedigree – he’s a full-brother to Mohaymen – that suggests he’ll enjoy the added distance. His form at Churchill Downs was okay, nothing great, but in what appears to below par field for this level he’s a contender. The main push goes to Kokokomo but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 7: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Special Story; 3-Kazmania; 8-Red Zinger 
Forecast: Kazmania didn’t get the best of runs in his first start in six months when forced to steady off heels and alter course into the lane in a similar state-bred allowance sprint last month at Belmont Park. The son of Bank Heist certainly can improve and in fact has a highly-rated win in December at Penn National that is more than good enough to beat this field. With clear sailing today, he can be along in time. Red Zinger was scratched on Thursday when entered as an MTO and today gets his preferred conditions following three bullet workouts over the Saratoga training track. The Contessa-trained colt switches to Alvarado and should fold into an ideal pace-stalking trip outside. He placed in both of his starts over the Saratoga main track last year. Special Story, a sharp Finger Lakes shipper, isn’t particularly fast on pure numbers but he’s genuine and consistent, having won three of his last four starts. The veteran Tale of the Cat gelding can be successful on the lead or from off the pace and has won under Lezcano in the past. These are the three we’ll prefer in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying Kazmania on top. 

RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Prosperity; 4-Gracious; 6-Peaceful 
Forecast: Peaceful ran well enough in her debut to be featured in a Black Book segment and should improve considerably today with that effort under her belt. A strong, closing runner-up at Monmouth Park last month, the daughter of Declaration of War gets an extra half-furlong to work with for a barn that hits at 22% with second-timers. With good racing luck she should be hard to contain in the final stages. Prosperity is a first-timer by Tapit from the Motion barn with a series of sharp works at Fair Hill on her resume. She’s the only debut runner in the field but looks very live and is a “must use. Gracious, second in both of her starts at Laurel Park in the winter, returns for a capable outfit and could easily be better this time around. She’s a daughter of Speightstown from a mare by Medaglia d’Oro, so the switch to grass shouldn’t be any issue. A bullet five furlong drill at Laurel just six days ago catches the eye. 

RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X 
Use: 2-Rushing Fall; 4-Sistercharlie 
Forecast: The Chad Brown Invitational, also known as the Grade One Diana Stakes, drew six entrants, four of which are stablemates. Rushing Fall has won eight of 9 career starts including the Lake Placid Stakes here last year and can handle any pace scenario or course condition. She’s had the benefit of two runs in 2019 while Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion Sistercharlie will be making her first start since November, so the slight edge on top may go to ‘Fall, but it’s really just splitting hairs. A good race to pass, a better one to enjoy. 

RACE 10: Post 6:19 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 5 Payne 
Forecast: Payne was worn down late by Rowayton when finishing more than six lengths clear of the rest in a tougher first-level allowance sprint than the one he’s entered in today, so we’re expecting the Brown-trained son of Paynter to handle this assignment at a short price. He’s lightly-raced, fast on numbers, switches to Castellano, and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance. At 6/5 on the morning line he’ll be too short to play in the straight pool, but we can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single. 

RACE 11: Post 6:52 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 7-Prognostication; 9-Sycamore Lane; 11-Battle of Blenheim 
Forecast: The finale is moderate $25,000 claimer over a mile on grass that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Prognostication probably was in need of the race when fading to seventh in a tougher entry-level allowance grass miler at Belmont Park last month in his first outing since last October. He’s back with “win rider” Castellano, has excellent prior form over the Saratoga lawn, and should settle in just behind the leaders and be ready to pounce when called upon. Battle of Blenheim just won a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 affair at Belmont Park and is realistically spotted at this level, his lowest ever. The Pletcher-trained son of War Front should settle in mid-pack and then have every chance to produce a winning late bid. Sycamore Lane is drawn farther out than we’d prefer, but the veteran gelding is in good form and properly spotted by Mott, so if Lezcano can negotiate a decent trip the son of Artie Schiller will be heard from when it matters. We’ll try to get by using just these three, but if you find the need to go deeper, go right ahead.