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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for 7/17/19

by Jeff Siegel

July 17, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Saratoga
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Best Bets at Saratoga on July 17th, 2019

Today’s Bullet Drills: Preview of Race 7 at Saratoga on July 17th, 2019 Based on Works

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Markhan; 5-Renown

Forecast: Renown is an has plenty of back class and can stay forever so it was hardly surprising. that he would eventually gravitate to hurdle racing. The Voss-trained gelding actually finished third (and then promoted to second via disqualification) in the Johns Call Stakes here last year and his subsequent form over the jumps – save for his most recent outing – has been solid. He’s our top pick. Markhan just won a nice race on the flat at Parx and before that crushed a maiden steeplechase field, so the ex-Irish performer probably is the one to fear most. 

RACE 2: Post 1:25 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Listentoyourheart; 3-Mission Wrapitup 

Forecast: Mission Wrapitup was quite impressive in his debut maiden win – a race good enough to be featured in a Black Book segment – so we’re expecting the son of Mission Impazible to be a major player in this state-bred sprint stakes. The B. Brown-trained juvenile gets an extra furlong to work with, and his stalking style suggests he’ll enjoy it. Listentoyourheart was another first-out winner, doing so with a speed figure that actually was a tad better than ‘Wrapitup’s (69-66). The son of Afleet Alex projects as the quickest in the field, and if not pressured early could easily take this field gate-to-wire. They’re hard to separate, so we’ll include both in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Stolen Pistol; 7-Discretionary Marq; 9-Fully Vested

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in the third race, a competitive turf sprint for second-level allowance older horses. Normally a pace forcer or presser, Fully Vested, after a slow start, ran quite well from off the pace in his grass debut at Monmouth Park last month, rallying strongly but running out of room when a sharp runner-up at this level. With an extra half-furlong to work with today, the son of Discreet Cat should be tough to contain if similar patient tactics are employed. “Win rider” Lezcano gets back aboard, an angle we always like. Stolen Pistol, away since last October but training nicely for a barn that has superior stats with layoff runners, won over this course and distance last year with a career top speed figure and always has performed best under Saez. He’s a deep closing sprinter who needs some help up front, but with decent early fractions and good racing luck the son of New Year’s Day should be heard from late. Discretionary Marq is a tough-as-nails turf sprinter who pulled off a 16-1 surprise last month vs. entry-level allowance foes in his first outing since November. He’ll have to improve a bit to win on the raise, but he’s probably worth using in your exotics as a back-up or a saver. 

RACE 4: Post 2:36 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Hope Again; 3-Seanow; 7-Hijacker 

Forecast: Hope Again is aggressively placed by Thomas after winning a restricted $16,000 affair at Monmouth last month against older horses, but despite the hike in claiming price this field featuring his own age group should be well within his capabilities. Speed figure-wise, he’s right there, and with just five career starts the English-bred gelding may have upside most of the others don’t. “Win Rider” Bravo stays aboard, so we’ll put him on top. Seanow is a need-the-lead type with numbers that make him dangerous if he’s not pressured early. The Pletcher-trained son of Tiznow faded in a recent tougher starter’s allowance affair but a repeat of his win for $40,000 two races back charts well with these. Hijacker remains well above his $20,000 claiming level and is another with recent numbers that put him right there. The Lemon Drop Kid gelding should have every chance with a second flight trip to produce the last run. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press in the straight pool using Hope Again. 

RACE 5: Post 3:16 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Myawaya; 8-Devils Rendezvous 

Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint for juveniles is restricted to horses that went through the auction ring for $45,000 or less. Talk about meeting the conditions, both Myawaya and Devils Rendezvous brought exactly $45,000, so they’re eligible and likely the two to be most concerned with. Myawaya is a New York-bred daughter of Wicked Strong from the Pletcher barn and has a solid, healthy work tab that includes a 48 1/5 seconds gate work that was the second fastest of 34 six days ago. With Johnny V aboard, she’s the one to beat. Devils Rendezvous, from the first crop of Daredevil, is bred to win early and lands Rosario, so we suspect she’ll be a live item, as well. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics in an unclassified affair with lots of question marks. 

RACE 6: Post 3:55 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Tiple; 5-Matzo Bella 

Forecast: Matzo Bella has developed into a useful and consistent turf sprinter and seem well-spotted in this restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claimer for fillies and mares for a winning performances. Her numbers are gradually rising with each outing, she switches to Rosario, and the daughter of Gio Ponti looks capable of producing the last run after just missing in a state-bred first level allowance event last month at Belmont Park. Yes, she’s returning to the claiming ranks while perhaps suspiciously leaving that valuable first allowance condition the table, but she remains above her $25,000 purchase level for Jason Servis, so we’re just fine with the placement. Tiple earned a career top speed figures – one that makes her a strong contender – when winning a maiden $40,000 grass dash last month. It may be significant that I. Ortiz, who we assume had his choice, opts for her over Matzo Bella. The Clement-trained Irish-bred filly will be running on late. 

RACE 7: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: C 
Use: 2-Alfons Walde; 6-Good Governance; 9-Border Town; 12-Bail Out 

Forecast: Older maidens compete over a mile on the inner course with several first-timers looking attractive in an open fray. Good Governance has done some good work in the a.m. for C. Brown and should be more than fit for a big effort first time out. He was especially impressive during the spring when based in Florida but for some reason never made it to the post until now. The same can be said for Brown’s other debuting entrant, Border Town, a War Front t that also has shown well in morning trials. Both are “must uses.” Bail Out has better-than-par figures for this level but is an eight-race maiden and may not be totally trustworthy, while Alfons Walde, second in his last pair and drawn nicely inside, should have every chance with a ground-saving, stalking trip, but comes from a low percentage outfit. This looks very much like a chaotic affair, so we’ll spread going four-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. 

RACE 8: Post 5:09 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Takecharge Mirella; 7-Break Curfew; 8-Sharpin

Forecast: Takecharge Mirella broke her maiden over this main track last year and seems capable of getting back on the winning track after failing to land a blow vs. tougher, older, second-level allowance foes last time out. She’s back with 3-year-olds today while surfacing for a high-price tag, so if she can leave cleanly from the rail the McLaughlin-trained daughter of Take Charge Indy should be hard to handle. Break Curfew has the first-time-in-a-claimer angle and is a strong fit based on her close third behind Takecharge Mirella in an allowance affair over a sloppy surface in late April. Off the track since then but with a steady, healthy work tab at Monmouth Park, the C. Brown-trained daughter of Into Mischief should fire her best shot. Sharpin is a “must use” as well; she’s a first-off-the-claim for Handal (22% with a strong flat-bet profit) and is comfortably drawn outside. Despite the class hike, she’s a solid fit on speed figures and should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. 

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Carrera Cat; 6-Talk Veuve to Me 

Forecast: Carrera Cat seems the solid choice is this second-level optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares after winning four straight, the last of which coming in open company over a sloppy track that produced a career-equaling top figure. The daughter of Courageous Cat certainly doesn’t require a wet track to be at her best – two of her recent wins were accomplished on dry land – but what seems clear is that she requires the front end to be at her best. The pace scenario looks highly favorable to her, so we’re expecting the Morrison-trained four-year-old to take control early and keep on going. Talk Veuve to Me has been facing infinitely tougher foes and should greatly appreciate today’s class relief. It’s worth noting that she’s eligible to this race only because she was disqualified from an allowance win in Kentucky in April due to a bad post-race test. The daughter of Violence likely will inherit an idea pace-stalking position – we don’t think she’s as quick as ‘Cat - and then have every chance to exert her past class. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Carrera Cat on top. 

RACE 10: Post 6:20 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Single Verse; 6-Darken Day; 9-Violent Point 

Forecast: State-bred juvenile fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs on grass in a wide open finale. Violent Point, with the benefit of a prior run, exits a monster race won by Fierce Lady, and while she wound up a distant third, the daughter of Violence flashed excellent early speed and should stick much better with that effort behind her. She’s also bred to like grass, so huge improvement with the surface switch wouldn’t be surprising. Among the newcomers, Single Verse may be the most intriguing. The daughter of Mineshaft is a half-sister to to New York-bred stakes winner Brother O’Connell and brought $145,000 in May at Timonium, where she previewed nicely (10 2/5 seconds). Darken a Day has displayed some ability in the a.m. for Contessa and lands I. Ortiz, so we’ll include her as well.