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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for 7/17/19

by Jeff Siegel

July 17, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Del Mar 
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Two Top Plays From Del Mar on July 17th, 2019

Today’s Bullet Drills: Preview of Races 2, 5, 7, 8 and 9 at Del Mar on July 17th, 2019 Based on Works 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-I Can Do This; 3-Julius 

Forecast: I Can Do This missed at 4/5 in a first-level state-bred allowance race at Santa Anita last month but this starter’s allowance field represents a bit of a class drop, so we’re expecting the Glatt-trained gelding to make amends in a race that should have plenty of pace to compliment his closing style. We’re curious to see how this main track plays – it can be biased one way or the other on occasion – so it may be prudent to go to school early in the opening day program – if not the entire week – to see where the winners are coming from. There’s a substantial amount of “ship and win” money available to Churchill Downs invader Julius in his first local start for the O’Neill barn, so you this Tapit gelding is cranked up and ready to show his best stuff. However, he’s clearly a need-the-lead type and is suspect around two turns, so with sprinter-stretching-out Secret Courier drawn inside and likely to be sent from the gate, the pace flow could come up fast and contested. We’ll include Julius as a saver in our rolling exotics but the main push goes to I Can Do This. 

RACE 2: Post 2:33 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Via Egnatia; 5-Starting Bloc; 6-United 

Forecast: United deserves top billing after finishing a closing second with a career-top Beyer speed figure in the Whittingham S.-G2 in late May, though this second-level allowance race really isn’t really all that much easier. The lightly-raced son of Giant’s Causeway likely has further improvement in him for Mandella and will be bearing down late in a race that should have enough pace to give the closers a reasonable look. Via Egnatia seems likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed and given that trip the improving Baltas-trained horse looks dangerous after beating an entry-level field in clever fashion at Santa Anita. A sharp recent workout indicates he’s set for another forward move. Starting Bloc ran well enough in his most race start in late May to make a Black Book segment and has shown a liking for this turf course in the past. The work tab is a little sketchy but if he shows up with his best form he’ll be in the thick of it. 

RACE 3: Post 3:05 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Clear the Mine; 3-Ted W. 

Forecast: Clear the Mine got away with a soft front-running trip and crushed a $10,000 restricted field at Santa Anita in mid-May; he makes his first start since for new trainer Spawr and is doubled jumped in class in a sign of confidence. The veteran gelding isn’t likely to benefit from a similar trip today, but he’s always been a closer or stalker anyway, so we suspect Delgadillo may choose to let the others go and then make a run. With a prior win over the course and speed figures that fit, the son of Mineshaft rates a slight edge on top. Ted W., first off the claim for Hess (22% with a flat-bet profit) and eligible for the inflated “ship and win” purse money, arrives in good form from Churchill Downs, removes blinkers, and probably will draft into pace pressing position. Around two turns he might be most comfortable on the front end and if he can make the running without being sent hard, he could be tough to catch. 

RACE 4: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Incensed; 4-Facts Matter; 5-Giddymeister 

Forecast: This $20,000 claiming sprint has at least three major contenders, so we’ll employ a spread strategy in rolling exotic play but otherwise pass the race. Facts Matter looked good winning at Pleasanton last month for this claiming price but that race was restricted and this one is open, so the task is tougher. Still, the McCanna-trained gelding, a winner of three of his last four, is a strong contender on current form. His versatility allows the son of The Factor to be dangerous on the lead or from a stalking position. Giddymeister also has won three of his last four and was impressive beating a lesser field at Los Alamitos in his most recent start while earning a career top speed figure. He hasn’t been close in three prior starts over the Del Mar main track, but he could be a better type now. Incensed, first off the claim for Steve Sherman, is a perfect one-for-one at Del Mar and may be dangerous from off the pace with one of his better efforts. 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 4-Honeyfromthesouth; 7-Miss Hot Legs 

Forecast: Honeyfromthesouth left her previous form behind with a visually pleasing maiden win sprinting on turf at Santa Anita while changing her style from a dyed-in-the-wool speed type to one that can lay back early and produce a run late. Now that Baffert and Garcia know that she can be held up early and be successful, similar tactics seem certain to be employed today, and with good racing luck she can take this class hike in stride at a generous 6-1 on the morning line. Miss Hot Legs pressed the pace and then found something extra under pressure to graduate in sharp style in her second career start last month. She has the makings of a very nice turf sprinter for Callaghan and should continue to improve with experience. We’ll prefer Honeyfromthesouth slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 6: Post 4:43 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Freedom Ride; 3-Lucky Daughter; 5-I Want One 

Forecast: Maiden claiming juvenile fillies sprint five furlongs in the sixth race, a wide-open affair in which nothing would surprise us. Two major contenders with a race under their belt – Freedom Ride and Lucky Daughter – should benefit from their bit of experience and are “must uses.” ‘Ride finished an okay fourth in a straight maiden event at Los Alamitos just 11 days ago and will appreciate this drop into a softer spot, while ‘Daughter made the pace but weakened late in straight maiden company in late June but earned a fairly decent speed figure in that fourth place effort and is the one to beat based on that performance. Among the newcomers, I Want One hails from the high-percentage Lerner barn and is bred for speed on both sides of her pedigree. The works are nothing special, but the pattern is healthy so we’ll toss her in. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics but if you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead. 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Bella Renella; 3-Smiling Shirlee; 4-Warrior’s Moon 

Forecast: Bella Renella, a promising third in her debut at Los Alamitos, switches to Bejarano and draws the rail, which is fine if she leaves with her field. She actually rallied from off the pace in her only outing but with blinkers being added today she may display more early speed. If she doesn’t leave herself with too much to do, she can be along in time. Warrior’s Moon, a fair fourth in her debut at Santa Anita, gets Lasix and retains Prat, so this Eurton-trained filly seems certain to improve. Smiling Shirlee is bred to win early (Smiling Tiger) and sports a bullet gate workout (47 2/5 seconds) in late June, so there’s reason to believe she’s pretty quick. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics but then press with extra tickets keying Bella Renella on top. 

RACE 8: Post 5:44 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 3-Jasikan 

Forecast: Jasikan was highly impressive winning a first-level allowance turf miler at Santa Anita in late May while displaying an electric turn of foot, one that should serve him well in this typically crowded Oceanside Stakes that somewhere along the way will require instant acceleration. The lightly-raced Irish-bred colt picks up Prat, lands a comfortable inside draw, and will be along in time with any degree of racing luck. For us he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 9: Post 6:14 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Cool Bobby; 3-Coil Me Home; 4-King Jack 

Forecast: King Jack was highly impressive breaking his maiden at first asking with a strong speed figure and has come back to work even better, so we’re expecting the son of Jimmy Creed to score again in this first-level allowance extended sprint. Dan Ward, long-time assistant to Jerry Hollendorfer and before that Bobby Frankel, saddles a colt that he knows very well, so don’t be concerned about the listed trainer switch. We’ll make him the main push in our rolling exotics but then save with a couple of others on a ticket or two. Cool Bobby turns back to a sprint, adds blinkers, is strong in the speed figure department and has won at Del Mar in the past, while Coil Me Home, in the money in his last six, is reunited with “win rider” Prat and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance. He should at least get a piece of it. 

RACE 10: Post 6:44 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 8-Give Me the Lute 

Forecast: With the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern, Give Me the Lute has much going for him in this maiden special weight state-bred grass miler. Beaten a half-length in a strong recent a maiden turf sprint while earning a career-top number, the Miller-trained gelding has the pedigree to handle the extra distance, retains Prat, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.