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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for 7/18/19

by Jeff Siegel

July 18, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies for Del Mar
Thursday, July 18, 2019

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on July 18th, 2019 

Today’s Bullet Drills: Preview of Races 6 and 7 at Del Mar on July 18th, 2019 Based on Works 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 3-Thanks Mr. Eidson; 7-Juggerenaut 

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in the Thursday opener, an uninspiring event for juveniles. Thanks Mr. Eidson has two runs under his belt, both good efforts, each earning respectable speed figures. The Bonde-trained colt drops into an expensive ($150,000) maiden claimer and seems the solid pick at what should be a fairly low price. Juggernaut appears the most dangerous of the new faces. The homebred son of Goldencents is comfortably drawn outside, and we assume that with trainer Keith’s brother Kent taking the mount this colt is preferred over the other Desormeaux entrant, Gorky Park. The work tab for Juggernaut seems decent enough, so we’ll toss him in even though this barn’s record with debut runners doesn’t inspire confidence. 

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C 
Single: 7-Boru 

Forecast: Boru is hardly our idea of a solid single, and if you can find something to beat him, go right ahead. We tried but couldn’t. Beaten as the favorite in his last pair, the Cerin-trained gelding will be heavily-backed again, and he may not need any improvement to handle this modest $62,500 maiden claiming field. However, the son of Curlin has never been known to find anything under pressure, so he’s clearly not one to trust. Best advice is to pass the race and look for better value later in the program. 

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Whatsittoya; 5-Mo Dinero 

Forecast: Whatsittoya broke his maiden in decent style at Pleasanton last month and the Northern California-based Kyle Frey, who was aboard for that win, shows up to ride, so we’ll take that as a positive. The lightly-raced gelding isn’t necessarily fast enough on pure numbers to win, but he’s never taken a backward move so with continued improvement he could score right back. Mo Dinero, first or second in his last three starts with steadily rising speed figures, should be set for another good effort for a high percentage outfit and is the one to beat in this $16,000 abbreviated sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. In a race without much early speed, the Munnings gelding should be able to settle just off the pace and then have every chance when it matters. We’ll prefer Whatsittoya slightly on top but use both in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 4-Samurai Charm; 5-Text Don’t Call; 6-Miss Fraulein; 9 Senora Power 

Forecast: Samurai Charm is a first-timer from the Miller barn with series of decent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs that should have her plenty fit for a good effort. The barn always has been fairly decent with debut runners, and this homebred lands Prat, so we assume she will be competitive in this maiden $50,000 claiming sprint for 2-year-old fillies. Text Don’t Call brought $40,000 in May at Timonium, where she displayed good action when previewing in 10 4/5 seconds, an okay clocking. She should fit with these. Miss Fraulein is bred for speed (Strong Mandate) and shows a bullet workout (48 seconds from the gate, fastest of 20) at a training center in Utah before arriving in California, and so perhaps she can run a bit as well. Senora Power has the benefit of a prior run, finishing a distant fourth in the powerful race won by subsequent stakes winner Comical, and obviously will find this group considerably easier. In what is nothing more than an exercise in reading tea leaves, we’ll try go four deep and hope that’s enough. 

RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-Kazan; 8-Calle Kingpin 

Forecast: Calle Kingpin looked good winning an allowance race over the Golden Gate Fields turf course in his most recent outing while on the pace throughout and earning a strong speed figure, so if he gets that type of trip again today – and based on the projected pace scenario he very well might – the S. Sherman-trained horse may be capable of springing another upset. The lightly-raced 5-year-old has a healthy work pattern since raced, so he should run at least as well and perhaps better today, the tougher assignment notwithstanding. Kozan is the likely favorite and certainly can win – he finished second in the Hollywood Derby over this course and distance last December – but the evidence suggests those glory days are behind him. He’s only made it to the post once since a February win at Santa Anita, and his recent workouts have been uninspiring, but the Baltas-trained gelding is reunited with “win rider” Prat and will be hard to beat with anything close to his bet. Calle Kingpin will be the much better price, so he’s the gamble, but both should be included in rolling exotic play. 

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: X 
Single: 1-Sneaking Out 

Forecast: Sneaking Out was not permitted to compete in the Melair Stakes that she surely would have won during the final weekend of the Santa Anita season when all of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer’s entrants were scratched by an association edict, but she’s trained well since for new trainer Desormeaux and on paper completely outclasses the field. She won her maiden over this track from the rail last year by more than 10 lengths, so we shouldn’t be concerned by her inside draw. However, at 6/5 on the morning line the daughter of Indian Evening no doubt will be too short to play, but we can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race. 

RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 6-Harmon; 11-Irish Heatwave 

Forecast: There’s little doubt that Irish Heatwave is the logical top pick and the most likely winner of the race, but we’ll be gambling on the Bay Area shipper Harmon, a lightly-raced son of Cairo Prince whose speed figures are rising with every start and whose form suggests that he’s done improving. An easy all-weather maiden winner two runs back, the Gallagher-trained gelding had trouble in deep stretch in his most recent start when finishing third and could have been right there with clear sailing. Van Dyke should have him forwardly placed throughout with dead aim at the head of the lane, so at 12-1 on the morning line there’s good long shot value in the straight pool as the vertical and horizontal exotics. Irish Heatwave has a poor outside draw, but other than that he’s genuine, consistent, a stakes-winner, and has numbers than continue to rise. He’s listed at 4-1 on the morning line but we’ll be surprised if he doesn’t go lower, and if Desormeaux can negotiate a decent trip this son of Unusual Heat may be hard to deny.