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Friday, July 19: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 19, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, July 19, 2019

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Two Top Plays at Saratoga on July 19th, 2019

Today’s Bullet Drills: Preview of Races 3, 7 and 9 at Saratoga on July 19th, 2019 Based on Works

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+
Single: 5-Bourbon Mission

Forecast: Bourbon Mission, in his second start off a layoff, shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and clearly is being culled from the stable after originally bringing $150,000 in the Saratoga yearling sale two years ago. He returns to the main track, adds blinkers, switches to I. Ortiz, and has numbers that are more than good enough to beat this field. Is he trustworthy? Probably not, but he does look like a logical winner in a weak affair. You can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single, or, better yet, pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Queen Kahen; 6-Carrizo

Forecast: Queen Kahen drops below her claim level, returns to dirt, switches to I. Ortiz, and should be capable of winning this $25,000 claimer for 3-year-old fillies with a repeat of her maiden claiming win two runs back. She has a good stalking style for this seven furlong trip and the barn is off to a blazing start, so all systems are go. Carrizo was claimed for $50,000 in mid-June at Churchill Downs (she finished fourth as the favorite) and today surfaces for half that amount for barn that has superior stats with first-off-the-claim plays. Is this one of those “pad your stats” maneuvers, or are there issues to be concerned with? That’s the claiming game. The daughter of Paynter has back numbers that are more than good enough to win at this level, but does she have one good one left? We’ll use her as a backup in our rolling exotics, but the main push goes to Queen Kahen

RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Paradiso; 5-Doll

Forecast: Paradiso, a promising runner-up in an off-the-turf maiden affair in her only outing last October, launches a comeback while adding blinkers, and looks dangerous off the bench following a sharp half-mile blowout (47 3/5 seconds, fourth fastest of 71) at Monmouth Park six days ago. At 10-1 on the morning line, she’s worth strong consideration in the straight pool. Doll is strictly the one to beat in her first try on grass, a surface that her pedigree suggests she’ll have no trouble handling. Freshened for seven weeks and hailing from the Jason Servis barn (33% with short layoff runners), the daughter of Verrazano is strong on speed figures with better to come, and in a field without much early zip, she should find herself on or near the lead throughout in this abbreviated sprint for maiden state-bred fillies and mares. We’ll put Paradiso on top due to price considerations but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Shareholder Value; 4-Sir Ballantine

Forecast: Shareholder Value moves up a level to the $20,000 claiming ranks after pulverizing a $16,000 field late last month at Belmont Park in a race that earned him a career top speed figure. Claiming off Jason Service can be dicey, but the Rice barn hits with 28% with the first-off-the-claim angle so we’re expecting the Uncle Mo gelding to win right back. Sir Ballantine actually ran in the Carter H.-G1 two races back and now is being cast aside by a barn that isn’t afraid to get aggressive before the wheels completely come off. The son of Stay Thirsty has won at this extended sprint distance in the past and should be moving well through the lane but given the suspicious pattern he’s at best a saver in rolling exotic play.

RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Finite; 7-Mrs. Danvers

Forecast: Maiden juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in the fifth race that features a pair of well-regarded first time starters that should attract much of the play. Finite, a $200,000 Timonium purchase in May, was a bit green in her 10 2/5 seconds breeze during the preview session but appears to have good quickness for stable that excels with first-time starters (22% with a flat-bet profit). An excellent series of workouts at Keeneland prior to her arrival at Saratoga should have her fit and cranked up. Though his record with debut runners is below average, Shug appears to have a very nice prospect in Mrs. Danvers, a homebred daughter of Tapit. A bullet 46 1/5 half mile workout at Keeneland last month catches the eye, so we’ll use her in our rolling exotics while preferring Finite on top.

RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Willing to Speed; 7-Clear for Action; 9-Labeq; 11-Cross Border

Forecast: This starter’s allowance middle distance affair is a turf raffle requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Clear for Action, first off the $40,000 claim by Kenneally and a winner of three of his last four starts, is a devout front-runner in a field that should allow him his preferred trip. This barn is off-the-charts with the first-off-the claim angle (40% with a strong flat-bet profit), and the fact this gelding is being protected indicates he’s primed for another major effort. While we prefer him on top, there are others in here that are worth consideration as well. Willing to Speed, second in his last three starts but with speed figures that fit, switches to I. Ortiz and may be the most dangerous of the closers. He’ll need some help up front, though. Labeq finally earned his diploma in his 10th career start but did so with a competitive figure and has enough tactical speed to secure a comfortable pace-stalking trip. Cross Border returned off a year layoff to finish a close second in a hot starter’s allowance turf sprint last month while earning a career top number. It’s questionable, however, if he can be just as effective around two turns.

RACE 7: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Krewe Chief; 2-Cape Angel; 7-Lemonist

Forecast: This is yet another contentious turf affair, offering a few possibilities and the potential for a nice priced winner. Let’s start with Cape Angel, a perfect two-for-two over the Saratoga grass course. The son of Cape Blanco had a solid prep in Kentucky in his first outing in six months in mid-June and can be expected to move forward with that tightener under his belt. The Sharp-trained gelding will be trying a mini-marathon distance for the first time and on pedigree this 11-furlong journey should be made to order. At 10-1 on the morning line he offers value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Krewe Chief seems to lack a winning punch (he’s 3-for-31) but will have no difficulty with the distance and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from his inside draw and be within striking range throughout. Lemonist, first or second in nine of 14 career starts, is a one-paced grinder who just ran well at trip when second in a similar affair last month at Belmont Park. He won’t have to improve much to win and is worth including somewhere as well.

RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Engage

Forecast: Engage has been away for 10 months but the C. Brown barn rarely sends out a short horse off long layoff (29% with comebackers) so we’re expecting this lightly-raced and talented son of Into Mischief to be plenty fit for a winning effort over a Saratoga main track that he’s proven he likes. Second to Promises Fulfilled in the Amsterdam S.-G1 here last year and a maiden winner over this main track as a juvenile, the son of Into Mischief should have every chance to regain his winning form with a good pace-stalking trip under regular rider J. Ortiz. The work tab indicates he’s fit and ready. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 5:51 ET. Grade: X
Single: 7-Blowout

Forecast: C. Brown saddles all three runners that remain in the Lake George S.-G3. Blowout was a very impressive winner of the listed With Applause Stakes last month, and with just four career starts the English-bred daughter of Dansili certainly has room for further progress. Her numbers have risen substantially with every outing and she may be on the verge on stardom. Pretty good payday for the barn in what is nothing more than choreographed afternoon team workout.

RACE 10: Post 6:25 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Final Say; 8-Known But to God

Forecast: Final Say has little to beat in this modest maiden claimer and the Pletcher-trained colt – originally a $470,000 2-year-old in training purchase – seems set to graduate after finishing six lengths clear of the rest when second in a slightly tougher race at Belmont Park last month. Known But to God returns to dirt, has numbers that fit, and should be prominent throughout and have every chance. He’s a 10-race maiden but is a legitimate contender pretty much by default. These are the two that are most logical in a race that offers little wagering value.