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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies for 7/21/19

by Jeff Siegel

July 21, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies 
Del Mar 
Sunday, July 21, 2019 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-two-top-plays-at-del-mar-on-july-21st-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C 
Use: 4-Trapper Peak; 5-Soul Owner; 6-Seahawk Wave 

Forecast: Soul Owner seems as good as any in the Sunday opener, a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming affair over six and one-half furlongs. The Belvoir-trained gelding has a good pace-pressing style, numbers that fit, and drops for the money run. Seahawk Wave exits the same $25,000 non-winners of two affair that Soul Owner just finished second in and seems the one to fear most. He’s drawn outside and should enjoy a pace-pressing or stalking trip and have every chance. Trapper Peak takes a nosedive in class in his first start since returning from Kentucky and in his first outing since April. The Trappe Shot gelding hails from a capable outfit and projects to settle in mid-pack and then produce his run. This extended sprint distance won’t bother him at all. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-What’sontheagenda; 7-Mr Vargas 

Forecast: Mr Vargas had a nice tightener a few weeks ago in his first outing since last summer and seems sure to be fitter and sharper today after flashing good speed before fading in the final furlong. In the money in all three of his prior grass outings, the Koriner-trained gelding should fold into an ideal pace prompting position outside while stalking What’sontheagenda and then have every chance to wear that one down in the final furlong. The latter ran lights out without winning in a pair of hot turf sprints at Santa Anita won by Eddie Haskell and doesn’t appear to have anybody that good in here to worry about. He switches to M. Garcia and will take them as far as he can on the front end. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with Mr Vargas on top. 

RACE 3: Post 3:05 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Rattle; 2-Springster 

Forecast: Springster chased much tougher maiden $50,000 foes in her debut around two turns on turf and today sinks to the bottom, switches to dirt, and turns back to a sprint. She’s also adding blinkers while retaining Prat, so if she can run at all, this is the right spot to show it. Rattle got nothing out of her comeback when she stumbled at the start and lost her rider in a maiden $30,000 sprint last month at Santa Anita. She’s worked steadily since and deserves another chance in this soft spot. Last year in four starts she did show some early speed in straight maiden company so we suspect she’ll be competitive despite her rail draw.

RACE 4: Post 3:36 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Catapult; 5-Marckie’s Water; 6-Bowie’s Hero 

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Eddie Read S.-G2 drew six runners, and each has a right to run well enough to win. We’ll go three-deep but without any conviction. Catapult won this race last year and then took the Del Mar Mile, so he’s clearly at his best over the local turf course. Though disappointing when fifth in the Shoemaker Mile-G1 in his most recent outing, the Sadler-trained veteran has trained sharply for his first outing since May and if he brings his “A” game he’ll be hard to deny. Van Dyke stays aboard and knows him well. Marckie’s Water seeks his third straight win and in his present form could be this good. The Baltas-trained son of Tribal Rule can really blast home, but in what promises to be a slowly run race early he’ll have plenty of work to do from the quarter pole home. Bowie’s Hero, a stakes winner on this turf course, is rounding to top form for D’Amato and has enough tactical speed to be positioned wherever Prat wants him. When he’s good, the son of Artie Schiller can be a tough nut at this level. 

RACE 5: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Chay Up and Away; 5-Tiki Bar Logic 

Forecast: Though she hasn’t been out for more than a year, Tiki Bar Logic appears the one to beat in this $16,000 sprint for fillies and mares. She returns for the high-percentage Spawr barn and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Talamo, her regular pilot, takes the call on the daughter of Shackleford, who has trained slowly and easily, which is typical of this barn, so we anticipate she’ll be fit enough to fire a big shot fresh. Chay Up and Away has form that puts her right there but must overcome the dreaded rail. She’s won her last pair in game style, but figures to be challenged by ‘Logic every step of the way. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Tiki Bar Logic on top. 

RACE 6: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 4-Higher Power 

Forecast: Higher Power was scratched out of yesterday’s San Diego Handicap in favor of this more logical spot, and the improving son of Medaglia d’Oro can win again after a clever allowance score over pretty much the same level of competition at Santa Anita last month. The Sadler-trained colt is a versatile type that can win on the lead or from off the pace, so Van Dyke can assess the pace flow early and then decide where he wants to be. At 5/2 on the morning line, he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 7: Post 5:08 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Disco Ball; 5-Bronn 

Forecast: There are several very nice prospects in this five furlong sprint for juveniles. Bronn, a first-timer from the Baffert barn, has looked like a very good prospect in the morning in a series of workouts and appears ready to win right now. This is Smith’s only mount of the day, and that’s really all you need to now about high well regarded this son of Conveyance is. Disco Ball isn’t bred to sprint (Orb) and had the misfortune of drawing the rail, but he’s shown plenty in the morning and may be worth including on a ticket or two, even though we suspect he’s a down-the-road type. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics, but the main push goes to Bronn. 

RACE 8: Post 5:38 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-Pride’s Gold; 8-Peter’s Kitten 

Forecast: Pride’s Gold had a nightmarish trip in her U.S. debut and did remarkably well to finish as close as she did, winding up third in what has proven to be a productive race. Off slowly and then forced to race wide without cover every step of the way, the Harty-trained daughter of Animal Kingdom gets her first crack at a mini-marathon distance and the evidence suggests she’ll handle it just fine. Peter’s Kitten is the one to fear most. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy is a consistent sort with solid speed figures for this level and, like Pride’s Gold, has the bloodlines to run all day. Prat, who rode Pride’s Gold, sticks with Peter’s Kitten, which seems to imply that he prefers the Sadler-trained filly. At any rate, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press keying the likely longer-priced runner, Pride’s Gold.