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Wednesday, July 24: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 24, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Saratoga on July 24th, 2019

Today’s Bullet Drill: Preview of Races 2, 3, 4, 8 and 9 at Saratoga on July 24th, 2019 Based on Works

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is a steeplechase event, which falls out of our area of expertise.

RACE 2: Post 1:25 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Freky Styley; 3-Financialstability; 9-Golani Brigade

Forecast: This extended sprint for state-bred maidens looks fairly wide open. We’ve got it down to three main contenders and hope that will carry us through in rolling exotic play. Financialstability has a series of solid works at Monmouth Park that should have him plenty fit, and the C. Brown-trained gelding, originally a $290,000 OBS March sale purchase, really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat, at least among the known element. Brown’s other entrant, Golani Brigade, should have every chance from his cozy outside draw. A fair fourth in his debut last month but working well since, the son of Maclean’s Music retains Castellano, and with this barn’s impressive record with second-timer starters (28%) a significant forward move can be expected. We’ll also include Freky Styley, a first-timer from a stable that has excellent stats with debut runners (21% with a strong flat-bet profit) plus a decent series of workouts and Rosario in the saddle. The Scat Daddy colt is listed at 8-1 on the morning but might be better than that.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Jen’s Battle; 8-Adriatic Holiday

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and shortened to seven furlongs. Adriatic Holiday is a first-timer starter from the Tagg barn with a nice series of workouts, one that should have her plenty fit. She’s bred more for speed (Central Banker) than stamina and therefore should be aided by the change in trip. Jen’s Battle has the benefit of a prior run, a distant third place effort in a main track abbreviated sprint last month at Belmont Park. She received quite a bit of play in that race (2-1) and retains Rosario, so we’re expecting the daughter of Declaration of War to produce a forward move.

RACE 4: Post 2:36 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Annals of T

Forecast: Annals of Time narrowly missed in an outstanding effort in his first start in almost two years, and the high-class son of Temple City has trained quite well since, indicating that he should be ready for best effort. At age six, the the C. Brown-trained horse has had only six career starts, but he’s a Grade-1 winner of the Hollywood Derby and shouldn’t be too far off from that form now. There’s no wagering value to be found (he’s 4/5 on the morning line) but you can use him as a logical short price rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:16 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Surface Strike; 8-Giant Boo Boo; 9-Crea’s Bklyn Law

Forecast: We’ll triple the fifth race, a $35,000 extended sprint for fillies and mares that has a few possibilities based on whichever pace flow materializes. Giant Boo Boo, normally a committed front-runner, utilized stalking tactics in her most recent start and wound up a willingly second while earning a career top number. Similar strategy most likely will be employed, and with another forward move she could be hard to deny. Worth noting is that both of her starts over the local main track last year were excellent. The Nevin barn has two major players that bookend the field, including Surface Strike, who draws the rail and has only one way to go, to the front. She was a game winner of a nw-2 $25,000 affair in late May at Belmont Park, and a recent bullet five furlong workout over the Saratoga training track indicates she’s holding her form. Based purely on a numbers, she’s a definitely threat despite the raise in class. Nevin’s other starter, Crea’s Bklyn Law, likes to settle and produce a late run, and after finishing a solid second under these conditions at Belmont Park she should be heard from late, especially if the pace comes up hot and contested, which it very well might.

RACE 6: Post 3:55 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Another Miracle; 11-Hemlock

Forecast: This race has been transferred to the main track and takes on a different look following a couple of key scratches. Hemlock, entered for main track only, draws into the race and sports a series of impressive drills including a 47 seconds half mile gate work that was the second fastest of 127 over the Saratoga main track 11 days ago. First-timers from the Mott barn often perform better than they work, so the evidence suggests that this son of Into Mischief could be ready to win at first asking. Another Miracle, a son of American Pharoah making his second career start, finished a solid runner-up in his debut last month at Belmont Park and a similar performance might be good enough. These are the two that we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Hemlock.

RACE 7: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Rinaldi; 9-Funny Guy

Forecast: Rinaldi and Funny Guy meet again after the former edged the latter when they squared off in the New York Stallions Stakes over seven furlongs on grass at Belmont Park in late June. This time, they’ll face off around two turns at a mile. With Dynaformer on the bottom side of his pedigree, Rinaldi shouldn’t have an issue with the stretch out in trip but he must pick up seven pounds due to his stakes win. Meanwhile, Funny Guy picks up only one pound and, being by Big Brown from a mare by Distorted Humor, the Terranova-trained colt also should enjoy the change in distance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; this time around we’ll give Funny Guy the slight edge and have a few extra tickets keying him in the straight pool.

RACE 8: Post 5:09 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Mia Mischief; 6-Ours to Run

Forecast: Mia Mischief has finished first or second in 13 of 15 career starts and has won three of her last four, including the Humana Distaff S.-G1 from Marley’s Freedom two races back and most recently the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill Downs. She ran very well last year at Saratoga when placing in two graded stakes, had a sharp five furlong drill here two weeks ago to maintain her edge, and simply should outclass her rivals despite having to concede three to nine pounds to her rivals under handicap conditions. Ours to Run upset ‘Mischief at Oaklawn Park in the Carousel Stakes in April but a sloppy track may have had a lot to do with that. Still, the Louisiana-bred mare has won six straight, 12 of 20 lifetime, and won’t back down from a fight. Mia Mischief gets the edge on top but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post 5:45 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Pastime; 4-Really Proud; 6-Enthusiastic Gal; 7-Mentality

Forecast: This second-level turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares is typically contentious rand requires a considerable spread in the rolling exotics. Enthusiastic Gal is a prototype late-running sprinter, and after a winning sharp sprint two runs back at Belmont Park she found herself in too tough when a respectable but non-threatening seventh in the Intercontinental S.-G3 in her most recent outing. With a decent pace to chase and good racing luck through the lane, the veteran mare seems capable of producing a winning late kick. Mentality returned off a layoff in winning form when beating a softer field in gate-to-wire style in late May and has been kept on edge in the interim with a healthy series of workouts. She can stalk and pounce if the race flows indicate, so Davis can play the break and pick the proper position. Really Proud was on the pace but was worn down late when third in a hot race at this level in her most recent start. She might be more effective as a stalker, so given that trip she certainly could regain her winning edge. Pastime has the rail but not a lot of gate speed, so she’ll need some luck when launching her bid at the head of the lane. The daughter of Lonhro always has preferred to run second or third rather than win, so perhaps she’s one to include only as a back-up or a saver.

RACE 10: Post 6:20 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Fair Regis; 3-Risky Mandate

Forecast: The finale, an entry-level extended sprint for fillies and mares, brings out Risky Mandate, a very impressive debut winner at Churchill Downs in June, a race in which she settled in mid-pack and then blew past her foes with ease to win with plenty left. These are tougher, of course, but the daughter of Strong Mandate appears to be made of the right stuff and should be hard to beat right back. Fair Regis is a first off a $40,000 claim for J. Servis (36% with a flat-bet profit) and is an automatic “use” based on that angle, alone. Though not as fast on pure numbers as her main rival, the veteran mare has been first or second in 15 of 26 career starts and should at least get a piece of it again despite the class hike.