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Thursday, July 25: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 25, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on Twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, July 25, 2019

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Pair of Day Makers at Saratoga on July 25th, 2019
Today’s Bullet Drills: Preview of Races 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 and 9 at Saratoga on July 25th, 2019 Based on Works

RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: X
Pass/No play

Forecast: The first race is a steeplechase event. We’ll watch and enjoy.

RACE 2: Post 1:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Stunning Munnings: 5-Wedontbelieveher

Forecast: Wedontbelieveher breezed a furlong in a sharp 10 1/5 seconds at the Fasig-Tipton Timonium Sale in May, and then brought $50,000 at auction. She’s continued to impress in the morning since arriving at Saratoga but debuts for a $50,000 tag, possibly indicating that she’s not all that well regarded by her connections. Maybe the juicy $52,000 purse explains it. At any rate, we like her on top but will also include as a back-up Stunning Munnings, a beaten favorite last month in a similar affair at Gulfstream Park in what was a fast, highly-rated race. Since arriving at the Spa she has trained fairly well for Ward and will be a strong threat if Wedontbelieveher fails to fire for whatever reason.

RACE 3: Post 1:51 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Ratajkowski

Forecast: Ratajkokwski graduated as expected in her second career start, doing so over a sloppy track at Belmont Park last month in a productive race while giving every indication that even at age five it’s not too late for her develop into a nice race mare. She moves up to the first-level allowance ranks today while stretching out to nine furlongs, but on pedigree she should absolutely get the distance and based on the projected race flow could easily inherit the role as the controlling speed. A nice breeze earlier this month has kept her on edge, so we’re expecting the daughter of Drosselmeyer to score right back as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 2:24 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Shennan

Forecast: Shennan makes his U.S. debut for M. Casse in a moderate mini-marathon maiden affair on grass has has looked like a nice sort in morning workouts while indicating he’s fit and ready. In the money in both starts in Ireland while earning respectable Timeform ratings, the son of Rip Van Winkle gets Lasix and I. Ortiz and offers good wagering value at his morning line of 3-1 if you can get it. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:57 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Hawaiian Noises: 3-Pyron; 6-Dark Money

Forecast: Pyron shows up in a seller for the first after failing the deliver the goods when well-backed in a pair of recent first-level allowance sprints at Churchill Downs. This $75,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds is absolutely the proper spot, so against this group the son of Candy Ride rates top billing. However, he’s 8/5 on the morning line and doesn’t offer any real wagering value at that price. Dark Money, first off the $40,000 claim for Rudy (29% with this angle, has rising numbers and is a major player despite the class hike. You have to use him. Hawaiian Noises has won half of six career starts but isn’t particularly fast on speed figures. Still, he’s worth some consideration while dropping in for a tag for the first time in his first start since mid-May for Ward. He might be worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up.

RACE 6: Post 3:32 ET. Grade: B-
Use: Seaside Dancer; 11-Joy of Treasure; 12-Keota

Forecast: Here’s a difficult starter’s allowance two-turn turf event for fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope to survive and advance. Joy of Treasure has numbers that continue to ascend for good trainer Kenneally and may be capable of producing the last run. She has no tactical speed and will need racing luck when launching her bid into the lane, but with a little help up front she should be capable of getting up in time. Seaside Dancer, a razor sharp California invader from the Hess barn in her first start since being claimed for $50,000, lands the rail and has only one way to go, on the front end for as far as she can take them. A winner of her last four with solid speed figures, she arrives fresh off the plane for a barn that has excellent stats (21% with a flat-bet profit) with the first-off-the-claim angle. If not pressured, she’ll be tough to catch once again. Keota got the worst of the draw but she’s fresh from a blowout win vs. restricted $35,000 claimers in May and is a versatile sort that can win on the front end or from off the pace. She’s a first-off-the-claim for Servis (36% with a strong flat-bet profit), making her a “must use.”

RACE 7: Post 4:07 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 3-Risky Mischief

Forecast: Risky Mischief, a $350,000 Saratoga yearling buy, is bred to win right now (Into Mischief from the multi-New York stakes winning mare Risky Rachel) and has shown plenty of talent in morning trials for J. Engelhart. On July 11 she worked evenly and appeared a tad the best with My Italian Rabbi, the undefeated winner of the Stillwater Stakes here last week. In a race restricted to New York-breds, she absolutely should win - assuming she breaks with her field - so we’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post 4:42 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Mascha

Forecast: Mascha makes her U.S. debut in a first-level allowance race for C. Brown and should lay over this field. Group-placed in France last year, including a close second to the high class (and current stable mate) Homerique in the Prix de Psyche-G3 at Deauville last year, the daughter of Le Havre will race with Lasix and I. Ortiz in this middle distance turf event following a nice series of local drills that should have her plenty fit. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a straight play and logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Celtic Chaos; 4-Build to Suit; 5-Eye Luv Lulu

Forecast: The John Morrissey Stakes, an extended sprint for older New York-bred runners, drew just six starters, but most have some kind of look at it. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Build to Suit has had a sketchy career but he looked terrific in his comeback in January when winning an overnight race by more than six lengths while earning a whopping 101 Beyer speed figure. However, he’s been away since then and is launching another comeback for C. Brown. The works have been okay, not great, but this barn is superb with comebackers (28%) so we’re going to assume the son of Dominion is ready. Celtic Chaos looked very good beating a lesser field at Belmont Park in late May with a career top speed figure, and if he duplicate that effort today he’ll be a threat. The veteran son of Dublin was a close third in this race last year. Eye Luv Lulu is an old-pro that has finished first or second in 23 of 51 starts and has numbers that always makes him dangerous in state-bred stakes. Freshened since April but winless in six career start at Saratoga, the Servis-trained gelding should be included at least as a backup.

RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Way Early; 5-Macagone

Forecast: Macagone remains well above his claim level for J. Servis in a sign of confidence and looks capable of getting back on the winning track in this optional claiming state-bred $40,000 turf miler. Beaten at 60 cents on the dollar at Monmouth Park after blowing a clear lead inside the furlong pole in his most recent start, the son of Artie Schiller has been freshened since early June and should return with his best stuff. Way Early, away since December when he was unplaced and overmatched in the Hollywood Derby, returns in a realistic spot for Weaver and is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga turf course. He won his debut so we know he can fire fresh, and the work tab indicates he should be fit enough for a top try under Franco, who has won on him in the past. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Macagone.

RACE 11: Post 6:21 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Memories Eternal; 3-Recess; 12-Eighty Seven North

Forecast: The finale is a messy maiden claiming middle distance turf affair for state-bred fillies and mares. Anything goes. Memories Eternal adds blinkers for the first time, is drawn nicely inside and returns to the claiming ranks after failing to land a blow in straight maiden company in her last pair. If she can flash a bit more tactical speed, she should find herself in the second flight, saving ground, ready to pounce. Recess, a close fourth in a similar affair at Belmont Park in early June as the 4/5 favorite, will be making just her fifth career start and probably still has a bit of improvement in her. I. Ortiz stays aboard, so we’ll toss her in. Eighty Seven North is stuck way outside but drops into a seller for the first time, regains J. Ortiz, and is a fit on numbers. At 10-1 she’s probably worth including on your ticket.