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Friday, July 26: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 26, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies 
Friday, July 26, 2019 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-two-top-plays-at-saratoga-on-july-26th-2019/ 
Today’s Bullet Drills: https://www.xbtv.com/video/bullet-drill/preview-of-races-4-6-and-9-at-saratoga-on-july-26th-2019-based-on-works/ 

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Countenance; 5-G. T. Sonia 

Forecast: The track condition has been labeled muddy to begin the program. Countenance shows up in a claimer for the first time after being away since February and if she can replicate her Tampa Bay Downs form the Clement-trained daughter of Bellamy Road should be able to earn her diploma in a modest spot. However, she’s 3/5 on the morning line, so there’s not much you can do with her. G. T. Sonia has a main track runner-up effort at this extended sprint distance three runs back that charts fairly well here, so, it you’d like to try to beat the favorite you might want to consider her at 10-1 on the morning line. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: C 
Use: 1a-Mo Ready; 2-Kobe; 6-Cold Hard Cash; 8-Assault Breaker 

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and shortened from 1 1/16 miles to seven furlongs. There are too many unknowns, too many question marks, to make this race playable, so we’ll go four deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race. Mo Ready burned a considerable amount of money – he was 40 cents on the dollar – when finishing off the board in his debut in mid-May but the Pletcher-trained colt doesn’t have much to beat here and should get plenty of play again. We doubt he’s any kind of world beater but probably won’t have to be against this modest group. Assault Breaker is comfortably drawn outside and hails from a barn that has excellent stats (28%) with second-time starters. The Street Boss gelding was a distant second in a four-runner field in his debut and seems likely to improve over a wet track he’s bred to handle. Kobe exits a fast, highly-rated race but was never really in it and was cold on the tote (33-1). However, he’s a fit on numbers and will be dangerous if he can produce a forward move. Cold Hard Cash is a first-timer from the Rice barn (modest stats with debut runners) with a work tab that doesn’t inspire, but he’s bred for speed and may show some in a field that on paper has little of it.
RACE 3: Post 2:12 ET. Grade: C 
Use: 2-Missile Bomb; 7-Bernin’ Thru Gold 

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf but remains at its original distance of five and one-half furlongs. Bernin’ Thru Gold and Missile Bomb draw in as MTO’s and will get most of the action in a field reduced to five. ‘Gold is more than fast enough on figures to win, while ‘Bomb is a real pro (10 wins in 30 starts) and has never been off the board in five career starts over a wet track. We’ll pass the race but include both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 4: Post 2:48 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 1-Queen of Beas 

Forecast: Queen of Beas returns to the allowance ranks after being pitched a tad too high in the Eight Belles S.-G2 (a distant third) and then most recently in the Acorn S.-G1 (a non-threatening fifth). Freshened since early June and looking sharp in the morning, the daughter of Flatt is reunited with “win rider” J. Ortiz, lands the rail, and will be a short price favorite (she’s 4/5 on the morning) to get back on the right track. You can use her as a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race. 
RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: C 
Use: 2-Elizabeth Nicole; 7-Riot Worthy; 8-Ivy’s College Fund; 9-Tiz R Bella 

Forecast: This is a spread race, an inscrutable $12,500 main track claiming sprint for fillies and mares made especially so over a wet or drying out track. Tiz R Bella is comfortably drawn outside and should have every chance to secure the kind of pace-stalking trip that brings out her best. First off the claim for Toscano (modest stats with this angle), the daughter of Tizway can win if she’s able to repeat either one of her last two starts for her new connections. Riot Worthy, a $12,500 Noda claim in her first start since early May, runs back for her purchase price and could produce a forward move for a solid outfit. She had been away for 16 months prior to her last start and clearly has major issues, but she’s run well at Saratoga at the past, and in her younger days would have buried this group. Elizabeth Nicole is the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. She’s another with a previous win at Saratoga and is fresh form a gate-to-wire tally against a slightly lesser field at Belmont Park in late May. Monmouth shipper Ivy’s College Fund seeks her third straight score after winning a restricted affair for this price last month. She’s a tad slow on numbers but likes to win races, so we’ll toss her in somewhere. 
RACE 6: Post 4:03 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 8-Passing Investing; 9-Balon Rose 

Forecast: Balon Rose supposedly couldn’t lose in her debut in May at Belmont Park – she left at 35 cents on the dollar – but managed to get beat, though admittedly by a nice filly that came back to win her next start. She’ll be a short price again following a continuing series of very impressive workouts for C. Brown, and if the $1.6 million yearling buy is going to develop into the type of performer she’s supposed to be we’ll probably see it today. Of some concern is the condition of the turf course, which will have plenty of moisture in it. The daughter of War Front caught yielding ground in her first start and may not have cared for it. Her main rival, perhaps her only rival, is Passive Investing, her C. Brown-trained stable mate. The daughter of Tiznow finished a reasonable second in her debut over softened turf last month while actually earning a Beyer speed figure five points better than what Balon Rose was assigned. We should probably protect on a ticket or two using her in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 7: Post 4:39 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Dizzy; 5-It Was Considered; 7-Righteous Ruby 

Forecast: Righteous Ruby is a first-off-the-claim play for Gargan (32%) so we’re expecting the lightly-raced daughter of Revolutionary to run at least as well, if not better, for her new connections in this starter’s allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares. First or second in five of seven career starts, the Churchill Downs shipper has an effective stalking style, and though this will be her first “official” sprint she is unbeaten in both of her previous one-turn races. If I Was Considered is lightly-raced with the potential to improve and may be the one to fear most. She’s turning back from a route and probably prefers one corner, plus on numbers she’s a strong fit in this league for high percentage connections. Dizzy earned a speed figure two runs back at Gulfstream Park when breaking her maiden that would easily win this race, but all of her other races, including her most recent, have fallen far short of that mark. If she gets the kind of patient ride she seems to prefer, the daughter of Curlin will be running on late and might get at least a piece of it. 
RACE 8: Post 5:15 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 6-New York’s Finest; 11-Fear; 12-Mo Diddley 

Forecast: As this is written, this race remains on turf, which is listed as yielding. It’s a treacherous affair, so tread lightly. Fear is an old pro (12 wins from 43 starts) and is fresh from a nice win at this level at Belmont Park in mid-May with a strong speed figure. Given today’s conditions, he may be the most reliable in the field. Mo Diddley is a class dropper turning back to a sprint. He’s reunited with “win rider” Johnny V. and should fold into a good stalking spot and have every chance. New York’s Finest has won four of five career starts over the Saratoga lawn and returns to the $40,000 claiming ranks for the first time since winning at the Spa at this level in July of 2017. However, his two outings this year have been well below par, so it’s entirely possible he’s not the same horse, but we’ll find out today. 
RACE 9: Post 5:51 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 3-Lookin At Bikinis; 8-Highest Honors 

Forecast: C. Brown holds the aces with two very promising colts moving into stakes company for the first time. Highest Honors graduated in his second career start in clever fashion from a next-out winner and has trained superbly since, so we’re expecting the son of Tapit to continue to move forward with experience and distance. This race doesn’t have a whole lot of speed signed on, so we’re hoping J. Ortiz opts to ride aggressively leaving the gate. Brown’s other major contender, Looking At Bikinis, might be a very good colt and today we’ll find out if he can route as well as he can sprint. Based on pedigree he should. A debut maiden winner last September before being turned out, the son of Lookin At Lucky returned with a fast, highly-rated entry-level allowance one-turn mile score last month and has looked superb in the morning since. We’ll put Highest Honor slightly on top but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 10: Post 6:25 ET. Grade: C 
Use: Pass/No Play 

Forecast: This maiden $40,000 state-bred claimer has been taken off the turf and shortened to seven furlongs. It’s a chaotic affair with a track condition that is unknown as of this writing, has nothing in it to trust, and easily could be won by either Galconda or Awesome Adversary, who are a combined 0-for-27. Rolling exotic players should spread as deeply as they can afford to; we’ll pass the race.