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Saturday, July 27: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 27, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 
Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-day-makers-at-saratoga-on-july-27th-2019/ 
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Teachable Moment; 10-South West Bay 

Forecast: Maiden claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the Saturday opener with class dropper Teachable Moment getting the nod on top. The More Than Ready gelding adds blinkers for the first time, is reunited with Castellano, turns back from a pair of two-turn events and should be capable of producing the last run in his first start since mid-May. A good, healthy recent work tab should have him primed and ready. South West Bay, in the money in his two prior starts (both routing) at Gulfstream Park, is a fit on numbers and looks well-placed in this abbreviated dash. Like Teachable Moment, this English-bred gelding should be dangerous from off the pace. In a wide-open grass grab bag in which nothing would surprise us, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in rolling exotic play. 

RACE 2: Post 1:36 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Rapido Gatta; 3-Doll Collection; 6-Lexintonia 

Forecast: The known element doesn’t inspire so let’s try a fresh face in this maiden special weight sprint for older fillies and mares. Lexintonia shows a bullet gate blowout on the training track 10 days ago that catches the eye, and with Rosario taking the call for Clement, there’s every indication that this daughter of Malibu Moon has some ability. In a below par field for the level, a little will go a long way, so let’s put her on top. Rapido Gatta, third in both of her starts to date, has some speed but must leave from the rail, certainly not to place to be yesterday over a muddy, drying out track. If such a bias exists today, her chances must be downgraded, but since this is the first dirt race of the day, we’re flying blind. Doll Collection turns back from a Churchill Downs one-turn mile that resulted in a runner-up effort with a career top speed figure last month, so it’s good to see that the daughter of Tapit from the brilliant race more Groupie Doll is starting to figure things out. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have a few extra tickets keying Lexintonia on top. 
RACE 3: Post 2:10 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Frisky Magician; 4-Psychic Energy; 8-Spectrolite 

Forecast: Here’s another turf raffle, this one for $25,000 claiming sprinters that requires a substantial spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope that’s sufficient. Spectrolite deserves a slight edge on top; the veteran gelding is a perfect one-for-one over this Saratoga lawn, having won here in 2017, and the dyed-in-the-wool front-runner should be quick enough to make the running and then be hard to catch in the final furlong. Frisky Magician lands the rail while dropping below his claim level for J. Servis in just his second start since January. A deep closer with good form on grass at Saratoga, he’s a fit on numbers but will need to secure racing room when launching his bid into and through the lane. Psychic Energy, claimed for 40,000 in mid-May by Rice, makes his first start since while re-surfacing well below that price in what can’t be a sign of confidence, even for a barn that hits at 28% with the first-off-the-claim angle. He’s reunited with “win rider “Castellano” and can be dangerous pressing the pace or rallying from out of it, so you have to include him. 
RACE 4: Post 2:45 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 1-Shoplifted 

Forecast: Shoplifted has done everything in the morning like an exciting prospect and makes his debut in a competitive sprint for maiden 2-year-olds. An $800,000 Fasig-Tipton March sale graduate, the son of Into Mischief looked terrific in the preview session and done nothing but excellent work in the morning since joining the Asmussen barn. A recent bullet five-furlong gate work (:59.4bg) over the Saratoga training track points him out, so let’s assume that this son of Into Mischief will run to his press clippings and make him a straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 5: Post 3:20 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 7-Emaraaty 

Forecast: Emaraaty makes his U.S debut for C. Brown and has trained very much like the colt that was so well-regarded overseas early in his career. A winner of a value handicap at Goodwood in the spring of his sophomore year, the son of Dubawi went favored in the 21-runner Jersey S.-G3 at Royal Ascot in the summer of 2018 but performed poorly both in that race and in a subsequent outing, after which he was stopped on. With a series of very impressive recent workouts, the English-bred colt gets Lasix and Castellano for his first start in more than a year and seems cranked up and ready to win right now. At 2-1 on the morning line, he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 6: Post 3:56 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 5-Flashpackinbargie; 6-Cash Offer; 7-Sweet Meadow Mist; 9-More Mischief 

Forecast: Entry-level state-bred fillies and mares sprint six furlongs in an open fray that requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play. Use as many as you can afford to. Sweet Meadow Mist, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, didn’t fire on turf in a state-bred stakes last month at Belmont Park but was undefeated in two main track events prior to that, so with the return to dirt the Baker-trained filly could regain her winning ways. A prototype late-running sprinter with Rosario staying aboard, the daughter of D’Funnybone could produce a winning late kick in a race that projects to have enough early speed to compliment her style. Flashpackinbarbie won her only outing by more than eight lengths in April at Aqueduct and makes her first start since following a healthy series of recent workouts. This is a far more competitive bunch than she faced in her maiden win but on numbers she’s a fit and there’s certainly an expectation that she can improve with experience and maturity. Cash Offer, never worse than second in four starts since joining the Hennig barn, will help ensure a fast pace and will take them as far as she can. The last time she competed at this exact six furlong distance she destroyed state-bred maidens by more than 12 lengths, an effort which, if repeated today, will make her hard to beat. More Mischief broke her maiden at Saratoga last year and was good second in her comeback in May at Belmont Park behind a next-out winner. She’s likely to produce a forward move and enjoy a nice stalking trip outside, so with Castellano riding her back for C. Brown the daughter of Into Mischief is a “must use.” 
RACE 7: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 11-Eagerly 

Forecast: The scratching of major contender Economic Policy leaves the door open for Eagerly, who draws in from the also-eligible and looks capable of winning at first asking despite his extreme outside draw. The son of American Pharoah has done some excellent work in the morning for Pletcher with a healthy series of drills that should have him plenty fit for a major effort first crack out of the box. He appears best of the newcomers and the known element doesn’t impress, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope that Johnny V. can get over from his outside post, save some ground, and then give this colt his best chance when it matters from the top of the stretch to the wire. 
RACE 8: Post 5:09 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 4-Chateau; 5-Fortune’s Fool; 6-Morning Breeze 

Forecast: Fortune’s Fool has rapidly rising speed figures and most recently earned a strong career top when finishing second to the classy Endorsed at this level last month at Belmont Park. The son of Arch was three clear of the rest after pressing the pace throughout, and not much more will be needed to outrun this group. Castellano should have him on or near the lead throughout. Morning Breeze is fast on numbers and adds blinkers for the first time, so the Morning Line gelding must be considered a threat despite his record of three wins from 22 starts to go along with 13 seconds and thirds. But adding the hood could make a difference, so we’ll use him. Chateau may be the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as he can. Freshened since early June, the Monmouth Park invader is another with a history of finishing second or third more times than he wins but just in case he gets brave we’ll include him on a ticket or two as a saver. 
RACE 9: Post 5:44 ET. Grade: X 
Use: 1-Mitole; 3-Imperial Hint 

Forecast: Mitole is clearly the one to beat and deserves to be the short priced favorite, rail and all, following his superb career-top win in the Met Mile, his eighth victory from 11 career starts. Yesterday, the inside part of the track was treacherous, so if you’re inclined to take the short price, watch races earlier today to detect whether the anti-inside bias remains in effect. Imperial Hint ran the race of his life when winning the 2018 edition of the Vanderbilt, doing so from slightly off the pace to produce a spectacular performance. He’s been freshened since finishing a respectable third in the Golden Shaheen Stakes in Dubai in March and has a history of exploding off the bench, so we’re expecting his best stuff today. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while recognizing that, all things being equal, Mitole will be hard to handle. 
RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Arklow; 2-Sadler’s Joy; 3-Ya Primo 

Forecast: So, whose turn is it today? The North American older turf division has no leader, just a whole lot of contenders, and this year’s edition of the Bowling Green Stakes drew 12 starters simply because nobody is afraid of anybody. Sadler’s Joy, a two-time stakes winner over the Saratoga turf course and most recently a distant third behind Enable in the BC Turf last November, launches a comeback and most likely is a race or two away from being at his very best, but if he’s feeling good the veteran son of Kitten’s Joy certainly is capable of winning. Arklow has been racing in some tough luck lately, finishing second by a neck in his last two starts against similar opposition. Today he draws the rail and should have every chance to break through after a ground-saving trip. Gun to our head, that’s the one we’d probably put on top (but certainly not single). Ya Primo represents stranger danger from Brazil; he’s unbeaten in three starts this year in South American graded stakes company and has trained like he’s fit and ready for C. Brown, but still must prove he’s a fit at this level on this circuit. These are three contenders in a field with several more, but in an inscrutable affair rolling exotic players should spread as deeply as their budget allows. 
RACE 11: Post 6:51 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 4-Global Campaign; 5-Tactitus 

Forecast: Tacitus lost much more ground than he was beaten by when runner-up in the third jewel of racing’s Triple Crown but with a better trip today he seems quite capable of making amends. A Tapit colt from the terrific mare Close Hatches, the Mott-trained colt continues to impress in the morning and with any kind of racing luck should be able to return to the winner’s circle. Global Campaign, conqueror of subsequent Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston, missed a scheduled start in the Ohio Derby a few weeks back due to a minor ailment but is another who has looked especially sharp in the morning of late and could be very dangerous as the controlling speed. The main push goes to Tacitus but we’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 12: Post 7:23 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 4-My Macho; 12-Letterman 

Forecast: The nightcap is a messy turf miler for restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claimers. My Macho seems as good as any; the lightly-raced gelding surfaces in a seller for the first time and should thoroughly enjoy the class relief. The Motion-trained 3-year-olds is a solid fit on speed figures, picks up J. Ortiz for just his second outing since February and should be ready to produce his best effort to date. Letterman is stuck on the far outside but a repeat of his race-before-last – a clever maiden $40,000 win at Aqueduct in May - charts well here. If the son of Hard Spun can negotiate a decent trip, he’ll have a look. We’ll prefer My Macho on top but use both in our rolling exotics.