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Saturday, August 3: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 3, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-best-bets-at-saratoga-on-august-3rd-2019/ 
RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Chimney Rock; 5-Brewmeister; 6-Eternal Summer 

Forecast: Eternal Summer has trained like a nice sort and appears fit and ready for big effort in this maiden special weight turf router for 2-year-olds. Pletcher always has strong stats with first-time starters and this colt appears very well-meant in a race full of question marks. Chimney Rock finished an okay third in an off-the-turf sloppy track debut at Belmont Park in June and today will get his chance on the surface he’s bred to love (Artie Schiller). With blinkers on and from an inside post, the Maker-trained colt very likely employ gate-to-wire tactics. Brewmeister, a debuting Point of Entry colt trained by C. Brown, has done most of his preparatory work at Monmouth Park but must be considered good enough to be competitive on this tougher circuit. The works don’t look particularly impressive but he’s bred for grass on both sides, so we’ll include him on a few tickets in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 2: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 6-Felix in Fabula; 8-The Rock Says 

Forecast: The Rock Says has steadily rising speed figures and today adds blinkers, so it’s entirely possible that the Uncle Mo colt produces yet another forward move, one good enough to beat this first-level allowance field. In fact, in a race without much speed, the S. Hough-trained 3-year-old might try to wire the field at this nine furlong distance. Felix in Fabula, a $50,000 claim out of a winning performance here last month by an outfit that has good stats with the first-off-the-claim angle, is genuine and consistent (first or second in 14 of 24 career starts) and should enjoy a good stalking trip under Rosario. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with preference on top to The Rock Says. 
RACE 3: Post 2:10 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Height; 3-Extreme Force; 5-Wayne O 

Forecast: Wayne O has trained like a very nice prospect for S. Asmussen (strong 22% with debut runners) and the son of Into Mischief, a $750,000 Saratoga yearling last year, seems plenty fit for a major effort first crack out of the box. Seven furlongs can a be testing distance for a newcomer, but if this colt is as good as advertised, he can win. Extreme Force has the benefit of a prior outing, a solid third place effort in a fast, highly-rated race at Belmont Park last month. He’s clearly the best of the known element and is a “must use” in exotic play. Height probably is a bit better than his morning line of 10-1 and should be used as a back-up or a saver. The Mott-trained colt has done everything asked in the morning and could be late factor if allowed to settle early and produce a late run. 
RACE 4: Post 2:46 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Patriot Drive; 4-Applicator; 7-Hay Dakota 

Forecast: This grass grab bag for $50,000 older horses requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough. Hay Dakota looked good winning at this level at Churchill Downs last time out while earning a number that makes him very competitive for the same price on this circuit. From the high percentage E. Kenneally barn, the veteran gelding picks up J. Castellano, and with some help front could be hard to contain in the final furlong. Applicator, a recent $40,000 claim by L. Rice (a superb 28% with the first-off-the-claim angle), does his best running on or near the lead and wired his foes in his most recent start at Belmont Park while earning a speed figure that makes him tough right back. Patriot Drive has won three in a row, most recently for $25,000 over this turf course last month, and better will be needed to repeat on the raise, but he joins Rudy’s barn, which hits at 29% with a flat-bet profit with this angle, so a significant forward move – and another win – is a possibility at 8-1 on the morning line. 
RACE 5: Post 3:21 ET. Grade: X 
Use: 1-World of Trouble; 2-Disco Partner 

Forecast: With the scratching of World of Trouble, The Troy Stakes-G3 takes on a whole different look. Pure Sensation now benefits from a completely different pace scenario than what was originally projected and clearly is the best of the speed types, though Rocket Heat can be plenty quick, too, and will try keep the pressure on. ‘Sensation, a winner of four of his last five, earned a triple-digit Beyer figure when easily dominating the Parx Dash-G3 in his most recent start but If he’s is forced into a speed duel, his C. Clement-trained stable mate Disco Partner will be the one to contain in the final furlong. In a race we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll include both of the Clement starters in our rolling exotics with slight preference on top to Pure Sensation. 
RACE 6: Post 3:56 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 7-En Wye Cee; 8-Free Enterprise; 12-Somes Sound 

Forecast: Somes Sound is listed at 10-1 on the morning line in this highly-competitive maiden special weight seven furlong sprint despite a series of impressive workouts and a pedigree that spells nothing but speed and class. The son of Ghostzapper, a $375,000 yearling, put together back-to-back bullet drills leading up to this race, lands the cozy outside post, and will be ridden by the barn’s go-to-rider, J. Alvarado. True, J. Jerkens doesn’t often win with debut runners, but this talented colt might prove to be the exception to the rule. Free Enterprise tipped his hand with a strong runner-up performance in his debut in late June at Belmont Park, pressing the pace throughout and then proving hard to down late while earning a strong speed figure. The Curlin gelding should benefit from the outing and is the likely choice and one to beat. En Wye Cee is an intriguing first-timer by Declaration of War from the Pletcher barn. The work tab indicates ability and it’s interesting that T. Pletcher choses to debut this colt on dirt, rather than turf for which he is bred for. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; we’ll then press using Somes Sound in the straight pool at anywhere near his morning line. 
RACE 7: Post 4:31 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Lucullan; 8-Ticonderoga 

Forecast: We loved the recent win by Lucullan in his first start in more than a year, when the five-year-old son of Hard Spun sat off moderate fractions to the head of the lane, and then accelerated with determination to beat a high-priced optional claiming field with an impressive speed figure. He’s trained well since for K. McLaughlin and should run at least as well if not better today despite tackling this tougher group. We’ll put him on top but also find room on our tickets for Ticonderoga, a dangerous late-runner with prior winning form over the Saratoga turf course. The son of Tapit is reunited with “win rider” Castellano, and if the early fractions are faster than normal he will make some noise late. 
RACE 8: Post 5:06 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Bellafina; 3-Covfefe 

Forecast: Bellafina is most effective around one turn and is a perfect two-for-two at this seven furlong trip, so we’re expecting the daughter of Quality Road to bring her best stuff from California in this year’s edition of the Test S.-G1. She has excellent tactical speed to adjust to any pace scenario and can pour it on late under these conditions, so as the deserving 2-1 morning line favorite the S. Callaghan-trained 3-year-old filly is strictly the one to beat; Covfefe is the speed of the speed and is back with her own age group after disappointing when under pressure throughout in the Roxelana Stakes in Kentucky in late June. If she runs back to her amazing, track-record breaking performance in the Ms. Preakness Stakes in her race before last, the daughter of Into Mischief could be scary on the front end. 
RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X 
Use: 6-McKinzie; 8-Preservationist 

Forecast: Preservationist was superb winning the Suburban Stakes-G2 last month while earning another skyrocketing speed figure and he will move to the top of the older horse division if he can do it again in today’s Whitney S.-G1, The pace flow should be comfortable and allow J. Alvarado to pick his position from his outside draw, either on the lead or in a stalking spot. The J. Jerkens-trained son of Arch will have to beat the California shipper McKinzie, who has been trained for a peak performance by B. Baffert after finishing a very unlucky second in the Met Mile in his previous outing in early June. The son of Street Sense is most effective at a mile but can act with the best up to today’s nine furlong distance. We’ll stick with the home team – Preservationist slightly on top – but include both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 10: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 5-Rock my Love; 8-Got Stormy; 9-Stella di Camelot 

Forecast: The De La Rose Stakes, a listed affair over a mile on grass, brings together a talented but evenly matched group of fillies and mares and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Got Storm rates a very slight edge on top based on the competition she’s been keeping of late. The M. Casse-trained filly should find this field within her abilities after a strong third place effort in the Jenny Wiley S.-G1 at Keeneland in April followed by a good runner-up performance in the Distaff Turf Mile-G2 at Churchill Downs in early May. Freshened since then but training steadily and looking sharp, she should fold into a nice second-flight position and have dead aim on the leaders when the field turns for home. Stella di Camelot stretches out again after a fast-finishing third, beaten less than a length, in the Intercontinental S.-G3 over seven furlongs at Belmont Park in early June. That was her first outing since November and the Irish-bred filly should benefit greatly from that tightener. Rock my Love found herself on the lead and then faded under pressure in her North American debut at Woodbine in late June, winding up fourth in the Dance Smartly S.-G2. She shortens from 10 furlongs to a flat mile and today likely will get early cover and then be produced late. 
RACE 11: Post 6:56 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 4-Red Zinger; 8-Fled; 12-Veterans Beach 

Forecast: Fled just crushed a restricted $16,000 claiming field sprinting on grass at Laurel with complete authority, a performance that if repeated today in this first-level state-bred allowance affair could be good enough for a repeat score. It was his first career outing on grass – and he earned a career top number in winning – so maybe this Flatter gelding always has wanted to be a turf specialist. At 6-1 on the morning line he’s quite intriguing. Veterans Beach missed by a neck in a similar event here last month while earning a career top number and today he’ll be getting Lasix for the first time. Despite the extreme outside draw, the D. Donk-trained son of Big Brown is a major contender once again. Red Zinger has dirt figures that make him a strong fit, but it’s unknown how he’ll react to the switch to turf. He doesn’t exactly have a grass pedigree, but the 3-year-old son of Will Take Charge turned in a bullet blowout around dogs on the Saratoga training track turf course last week to give hope that he’ll enjoy the sod.