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Sunday, August 4: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 4, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/recent/jeff-siegels-top-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-4th-2019/ 

Today’s Bullet Drill: https://www.xbtv.com/video/bullet-drill/preview-of-races-5-6-and-7-at-del-mar-on-august-4th-2019-based-on-works/ 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-And Counting; 4-Bunny Yogurt 

Forecast: And Counting got rank early and then was eased late in a tougher starter’s allowance miler last month but she’s back around one-turn where she belongs and we’re expecting the R. Becerra-trained filly to regain her best form. A recent solid five furlong workout over the Del Mar main track indicates she came out of her last race in good order and her maiden claiming win two runs back, if repeated, should be good enough in this modest affair. Bunny Yogurt has been away since January but is returning in a logical spot and is a fit on figures based on her best race. She has a gap of 26 days in her work pattern between her second to last and most recent drill, so that’s a bit troubling, but we’ll still toss her in on a ticket or two while preferring And Counting on top. 
RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Boa Nova; 5-Unbridled’s Sky 

Forecast: Unbridled’s Sky is a first-time gelding for M. Puype and that alone gives him a license to improve in this turf sprint for 3-year-old $40,000 claimers. Both of his grass races were sharp and with this drop in class for the money run the son of Old Fashioned should be able to produce the last run. Boa Nova, fourth in the same tougher race Unbridled’s Sky exits, appears to be the quickest in the field and will take them as far as he can. The Irish-bred gelding is a non-winner in the U.S but has gotten close on a couple of occasions and if he can get away with a soft opening quarter he make forget to stop. 
RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Wishful; 7-Dr Wysong 

Forecast: Dr Wysong lands the cozy outside post and is guaranteed a soft, pace-stalking trip in this entry-level allowance main track sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. She was tried long on the lawn in her last pair without the desired results, so the daughter of Cyclotron turns back to a sprint and switches back to dirt, conditions that suit her best. She’s also reunited with “win rider” Prat, so it all adds up. Wishful loses Prat but picks up good bug boy Velez while getting a big break in the weights in the process. She actually has a bit better speed figures than her chief rival and probably a bit more early speed, as well. We’ll still prefer Dr Wysong on top but include both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Gabo’s Macondo; 8-Offshore; 10-Bam Bam Bryan 

Forecast: This $25,000 claiming turf miler has several possibilities; we’ll try to survive and advance going three-deep but if you find the need to use more, go right ahead. Offshore seems as good as any. The R. Baltas-trained gelding crushed a restricted (nw-2) field for this price on New Year’s Eve at Santa Anita, then disappeared, but returns for a barn that has superior stats (24%) with layoff runners and shows a steady, healthy series of recent workouts to have him fit enough. The son of Exchange Rate also has a prior win over the Del Mar turf course, adding another positive factor to the mix. Gabo’s Macondo lands the good rail and projects to be in a good ground-saving, pace-stalking position throughout. Also a prior winner over the Del Mar lawn and dropping to a realistic level, the J. Wong-trained gelding should appreciate the return to grass after failing as the favorite on dirt at Pleasanton last month. Bam Bay Bryan has to overcome the extreme outside post but with his kind of early speed he should be able to comfortably get over and secure his coveted front-running trip. Eligible to the valuable ship-and-win purse bonus, the Lone Star Park invader has numbers that can win if he can run as well for his new connections as he did for the high-percentage southwest-based trainer K. Broberg. 
RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 6-Eight Rings 

Forecast: Eight Rings has trained like a very good colt – one of B. Baffert’s better 2-year-olds at this stage – and makes his debut in an intriguing maiden affair that showcases a number of well-bred, highly-regarded prospects. Although not really bred to sprint on the top side (Empire Maker), the $500,000 Keeneland yearling purchase was produced by the good sprinting mare Purely Hot and shown quickness in a.m. drills. With two bullet gate drills back-to-back leading up to this race, he’ll certainly take plenty of action and deservedly so. Let’s take a stand and make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 4-Rafal; 6-Landeskog; 12-Distinctive B 

Forecast: Here’s a difficult and highly contentious first-level allowance sprint offering several contenders and requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We know Distinctive B likes the Del Mar surface, having finished first or second in five of six career starts, and though he hasn’t been out since March the veteran gelding has shown the ability to fire fresh in the past and hails from a barn that hits a strong 19% with layoff runners. Drawn nicely outside, the P. Miller-trained eight-year-old does his best on the lead but can press and pounce if the race flow dictates. Also, check out his record under F. Prat (he’s two-for two). Rafal graduated in good style on dirt two runs back but then faded to third behind the next-out Saratoga stakes winner Listing in the Desert Code S. on grass in his most recent outing. Back on the main track today and returning to the allowance ranks, the B. Baffert-trained colt should be on the pace and take them as far as he can. Midwest invader Landeskog also is exiting a tougher race and should be able to act with these. Unplaced in the Woody Stephens S.-G1 at Belmont Park and before that the runner-up in the Bachelor S. at Oaklawn Park, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding is a fit on speed figures but will have to show he can sit off the leaders, who appear quicker than he is, rather than jet to the front as he did when breaking his maiden. 
RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-Stubbins; 6-Jasikan 

Forecast: Stubbins had an excellent sprint prep just 11 days ago against the best older turf sprinters in the West and did quite well to finish third before galloping out strongly (and in front) into the first turn. Today he’s back with his own age group and stretches out to a mile, the distance of his eight length Pasadena Stakes romp last winter, though that win did come over a sloppy track. With Kingly adding blinkers and likely to be sent from his inside post, Stubbins seems assured of a comfortable pace-stalking trip, and we’re going to assume that’s the strategy that his connections will employ. Jasikan was impressive winning an allowance race at Santa Anita in May and even more so when rallying late to take the opening day Oceanside Stakes in a desperate finish. He gets an extra half furlong to work with and should have enough pace to compliment his style, so the Irish-bred colt appears the one to beat. We’ll have extra tickets keying Stubbins on top but include both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 8: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 7-Vermeer; 9-Wilt; 10-Passing 

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claimers sprint six furlongs in the finale. Wilt is a Bay area invader showing up in a seller for the first time and appears to have found his friends. He’s two-turned in four of his five career starts and his one sprint try wasn’t much, but against this bunch the A. Mathis-trained gelding seems properly spotted for a win. He draws a nice outside post that should ensure a comfortable pace-stalking trip and he gets plenty of weight off with the switch to bug boy Diaz. There’s some value here at 9/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Passing moves to the J. Wong barn, adds blinkers, gets a nice outside draw following a rugged trip over this track last month, and seems capable of improving enough to be a contender. Vermeer, third in all three of his starts since arriving from Parx, drops again in class and projects to be part of the pace. His numbers aren’t much but he’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two.