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Wednesday, August 7: Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 7, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on August 7th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Impossible Task; 4-Tomorrow Knows; 6-K P Indy

Forecast: The opener is a strong maiden turf dash for 2-year-olds that features a number of promising young sprinters. Impossible Task didn’t break any stopwatches when previewing in 10 2/5 seconds at the OBS April Sale but looked like a smart type with easy action and a long stride and then brought $90,000 at auction. From the first crop of Liam’s Map, the D. O’Neill-trained ridgeling has done some good work in the morning without being asked, including an easy drill when in company with the fast older sprinter Labdeskog last month on the training track at Santa Anita. He’s continued to show ability after shipping down to Del Mar with a series of steady works that should have him plenty fit for a big effort first crack out of the box. Due to price considerations (he’s 6-1 on the morning line), we’ll take a shot and put him on top. Tomorrow Knows was purchased for $185,000 at the OBS March Sale after turning some heads with a very fast 21 seconds flat quarter mile breeze during the preview session and has looked quite good since being sent to California to J. Sadler. By the freshman stallion Carpe Diem, the tall, lengthy colt has done everything asked of him leading up to his debut. K P Indy, another OBS March sale graduate ($170,000), flashed good speed when breezing in 10 seconds flat at the preview session, lands M. Smith, and is clearly well-regarded by the Mullins barn. He’s worth including in rolling exotic play as well.

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Miss Lady Ann; 4-Interesting Times

Forecast: We’ve got the second race – a starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares – down to two main contenders and both should be used in rolling exotic play. Interesting Times failed to fire in a similar affair on grass at Santa Anita but returns off a six week layoff and is back on dirt. After winning her debut in good style, the daughter of Salute the Sarge produced a significant move when runner-up at this level in her next outing while improving her speed figure by 12 points. We’ll toss out the grass outing and key on her effort two back, one that if repeated will beat this field. Miss Lady Ann, in the money in all four starts but not quite as fast on dirt figures as ‘Times, was second in the turf race that her chief rival finished seventh, so she certainly must be considered. Let’s see if she can run back to that race on the main track.

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Combat Zone; 6-Soul Beam; 7-Passionate Reward

Forecast: Restricted (nw-2) $32,000 claimers meet over a mile in a race that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Soul Beam returns to the claiming ranks for the first time since being haltered for $40,000 in June of last year at Churchill Downs, and with the switch to F. Prat the son of Perfect Soul looks like a live item. Second at even money at Pleasanton in his most recent start, the G. Vallejo-trained colt should have every chance from a second flight early position. Combat Zone, rested since mid-May, projects to draft into a nice pace-pressing/forcing trip from his inside draw and the speed figure he earned two runs back when a close fourth in a starter’s allowance race makes him a strong fit in this spot. The son of War Front ran well over this course last year and a healthy series of works in recent weeks point to a return to his best form today. Passionate Reward drops into a claimer for the first time after being freshened since early May, so his condition is a question. The Congrats gelding had one prior outing on dirt when a non-factor sprinting vs. first-level allowance foes two races back and his local workouts at Del Mar haven’t been inspiring. Due to the class drop we’ll include him on a ticket or two as a saver, nothing more.

RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Appolina; 8-Ma Bella; 10-Miss Maybell

Forecast: Miss Maybell lands the cozy outside post after finishing a distant third behind runaway debut winner Magic at Midnight last month. The daughter of Tizway shows a recent sharp workout since that race for her Los Alamitos-based connections to indicate that she came out of the race in good order and is likely to produce a forward move. Appolina, second in that same race, has been beaten three times as the favorite and isn’t one to trust, though on pure form she’s a contender again and might even go favored. Ma Bella is a first-off-the-claim play for P. Miller (a powerful 28% with this angle plus a positive ROI) and is likely to improve for that reason alone. She was fifth in that common race with Miss Maybell and Appolina but she has some early speed and in a soft race can’t be discounted. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Miss Maybell on top.

RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Quebec; 6-Toinette

Forecast: Toinette was entered in the Yellow Ribbon Handicap over the weekend but her connections sensibly opted for this easier spot. Away since last October and a graded stakes winner as a 3-year-old, the N. Drysdale-trained filly has looked sensational in the morning and should come back at least as good if not better than she was last year. If so, the daughter of Scat Daddy will be hard to beat. Quebec lands the favorable rail and could inherit the role as the controlling speed. Back in the R. Baltas barn after a handful of outings back East, she has proven winning form at Del Mar and a nice series of easy works at San Luis Rey Downs for her first start in 10 weeks. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Toinette.

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Camino de Estrella; 4-Excavation; 7-Crown the Kitten

Forecast: Here’s a wide open middle distance main track affair for $12,500 claimers. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. Crown the Kitten drops to his lowest level ever and may have found a field he can beat. In the money in five of his last six starts, the veteran Kitten’s Joy gelding has low profile connections and always has preferred to run second or third rather than win, but he’s a strong fit on numbers and a prior winner over the Del Mar main track so we’ll put him on top but without any great conviction. Excavation was a winner in an $8,000 event last month with a good number, so the S. Miyadi-trained gelding is bumped up a couple of levels. If he can turn in two alike, the son of Mineshaft should be a threat right back. Camino de Estrella was off slowly and never got involved when having his two-race winning streak snapped at Los Alamitos, but the T. Yakteen-trained gelding should be capable of getting back on track against this group, especially as a first-time gelding. There are concerns, though, as he’s winless in five starts over the Del Mar main track and his inside draw over an anti-rail biased surface does him no favors. We’ll try to get by using just these three but if you can afford to go deeper, do so.

RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Play Money; 8-Jamming Eddy

Forecast: State-bred maidens compete over a mile on grass in the nightcap. There are two main players and both should be included in rolling exotic play. Play Money is a progressive colt, and after improving to finish a solid third in a similar event last month came back to drill five furlongs in 1:00 2/5 seconds (sixth fastest of 48) to remain on edge. J. Talamo stays aboard, and with another forward move the son of Unusual Heat can get the money. Jamming Eddy has disappointed as the favorite in his last pair, though he did earn a career top speed figure when third against this level of competition at Santa Anita in his most recent start in June. He’s run well for M. Pedroza in the past and projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance when it matters.