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Thursday, August 8: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 8, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, August 8, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Two Plays at Saratoga on August 8th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cuddle Kitten; 6-Stay Fond

Forecast: Cuddle Kitten has won three of her last four in various starter’s allowance races on all different types of surfaces and jurisdictions and today brings her act to Saratoga where, at 8/5 on the morning line, she’s expected to continue her winning ways. The J. Navarro-trained daughter of Kitten’s Joy has numbers that fit and excellent tactical speed that she can use to gain a favorable ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. On pure numbers she’s no better than a few of these, but in her present form the 5-year-old mare should be the one to beat. Stay Fond, away since February and with just three registered workouts on the comeback trail for L. Rice, is good enough if ready, but this barn’s statistics with layoff runners is below average. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Cuddle Kitten on top.

RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Shimmering Moon; 2-My Roxy Girl

Forecast: The contention in this state-bred $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares is drawn inside, with Shimmering Moon the morning line favorite at 2-1 despite being away since mid-April. A prior winner over the Saratoga main track, the L. Rice-trained mare shows a bullet half-mile workout in 48 seconds (fastest of 93) in mid-June but only one breeze since, so her condition is a question, but if ready there’s no doubt that she can win. My Roxy Girl, claimed in mid-May for $40,000, returns below that value today but hails from the D. Gargan barn, which has terrific stats (33%) with the first-off-the-claim angle. It’s logical to assume that the daughter of Emcee will fire a big shot fresh for her new connections, but her lifetime record at Saratoga (4-0-0-0) is concerning. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two but neither will offer any real wagering value, so you can use them in rolling exotics, spread deeper if you think they’re vulnerable, or simply sit it out.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Mo Gee; 3-Bad Boy; 8-Tiz Morning

Forecast: Mo Gee has been quite popular at the claim box lately, most recently joining the high percentage R. Diodoro barn following a $30,000 purchase last month from a solid runner-up performance over this course and distance. This raise in class should be within his capabilities, especially factoring this stable’s success with the first-off-the-claim angle (26% with a flat-bet profit), and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. the son of Uncle Mo appears extremely well-meant. The concern? The 5-year-old gelding is 1-for-18 in his career with 12 seconds and thirds. Bad Boy broke his maiden for a $65,000 tag last month over the local lawn and earned a nice speed figure in doing so, one that could allow the son of Curlin to come right back and win again in this restricted (nw-2) $50,000 seller. He loses J. Ortiz for whatever reason, but under M. Franco should draft into a nice second-flight stalking spot and have every chance. Tiz Morning comes from a low-percentage outfit and is unproven on grass (unplaced in one prior turf try) but on pure numbers he’s a fit and at 10-1 on the morning line not without a long shot chance.

RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Potomac; 5-Take Your Place; 6-I’m an Ocala Dude

Forecast: Potomac was in a tad too tough in a pair of allowance races after being claimed for $50,000 in early June but drops for the money run in this $40,000 seller while turning back to seven furlongs, arguably his favorite trip. First or second in 10 of 19 career starts, the C. Martin-trained colt likes to settle and produce a run and with good racing luck can be along in time. Take Your Place, a $40,000 B. Levine claim more than two months ago, returns as that same level and retains J. Rosario, who was aboard the gelding in a solid score vs. similar at Belmont Park. The son of Into Mischief is winless in five starts at this extended sprint distance but has the proper style, so if he repeats his last outing he should be right there. I’m an Ocala Dude is a dangerous Monmouth Park shipper returning to the claiming ranks and is very competitive on speed figures. He’s probably most effective on the front end but can stalk and win as well, so M. Franco can assess the race-flow and adjust accordingly. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics while preferring Potomac on top.

RACE 5: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Perpetuate; 7-Dream Bigger

Forecast: This maiden special weight extended sprint for state-bred two-year-olds is comprised of nothing but first time starters. Dream Bigger brought $205,000 at the OBS April sale after breezing in 10 1/5 seconds, an impressive clocking considering how green he appeared moving through the lane and into the first turn. The ability is there, not doubt, and if he performs in a professional manner today for Rudy he could be hard to handle. Perpetuate vans up from Monmouth Park where he put together a solid series of workouts for the capable M. Stidham outfit. We suspect that his son of Distorted Humor will be major player, though the evidence pointing to his ability is circumstantial. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press at 4-1 on the morning line with Dream Bigger in the straight pool.

RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Tan and Tight; 8-Erin More

Forecast: This maiden special weight turf sprint for fillies and mares has a few possibilities and requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Erin More is a first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn bred for grass (More Than Ready) and training like she has some genuine talent. The barn has been red hot with debut runners this meeting and this promising 3-year-old could add to the total. Tan and Tight, in the money in both of her career outings, improved her speed figure by 14 points when a sharp third in a similar affair over this course and distance last month. With another forward move today, the C. Brown-trained daughter of Uncle Mo will be right there. Preference on top goes to the promising fresh face, Erin More, but both should be included in your rolling exotics.

RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Binkster; 6-H Man

Forecast: We’ll double the seventh race, an allowance optional claimer for entry-level state-bred sprinters, with H Man getting a chance to make amends for his defeat at 2/5 in late June at Belmont Park. The J. Servis-trained gelding might have bounced a bit from his highly-rated win just 19 days previous, but with a nice six week gap to get rejuvenated the 7-year-old with 13 career wins should be capable of regaining his winning form over a main track he’s been successful on in the past. Binkster has a big number to go back to and is in good present form for R. Handal, though he was unable to cope with H Man in in a pair of races during the spring meeting at Belmont Park. Most effective on the front end, the son of Bluegrass Cat will have to deal with other speed today but has been first or second in half of his 14 career starts and should be set for another honest effort today.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Fetching; 6-Lucky More

Forecast: Lucky More earned a career top Beyer speed figure when winning an allowance race over this track and distance last month and not much more will be needed to score again in this New York-bred hundred grander for fillies and mares. J. Rosario stays aboard the daughter of Lookin At Lucky and will produce her again from the quarter pole home. Fetching has won two of three career outings and this lightly-raced 3-year-old filly has rising speed figures and plenty of room for further growth and development. However, all three of her starts have come on grass, and today the daughter of Afleet Alex will need to prove she can be equally effective on the main track. Because she has proven her abilities on dirt, Lucky More gets top billing but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1a-Financial System

Forecast: Financial System, freshened since May and capable of winning at this level with his best race, ran very well over this course and distance last year and seems set for a huge run following a healthy, steady, series of workouts at Monmouth Park for C. Brown. The son of Twirling Candy has a good stalking style, switches to J. Castellano, and looks capable of producing a winning late kick. With this barn having scratched its other main contender, Allured, let’s make Financial System a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Rock the Causeway; 8-Go Poke the Bear

Forecast: The nightcap is a grass grab bag over nine furlong for $40,000 older claimers. We’ll try to get by just using two. Go Poke the Bar, a first-time gelding, drops below his $50,000 claiming price in his first start since mid-June. He’s a tad slow on speed figures but has room to improve for T. Pletcher (who surprisingly claimed him back in late May in a sign of confidence) and is reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. Rock the Causeway has the most room to improve, having started only five times (with two wins), and the K. O’Connell-trained gelding ships in from Monmouth Park where he earned competitive speed figures, including a career top in his most recent outing, a third place finish in a first-level allowance affair. The stretch-running son of Red Rocks prefers a faster than normal early pace, and if he gets it he’ll be heard from late.