Log In

Thursday, August 8: Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 8, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Thursday, August 8, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on August 8th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Takethediamondlane; 6-Remember to Smile

Forecast: Remember to Smile has been in training forever, or so it seems, but the daughter of Smiling Tiger finally makes it to the races in a maiden special weight state-bred sprint that she seems capable of winning. Drawn comfortably outside and with a recent six furlong bullet work (1:13 flat) over this track to indicate fitness, the J. Bonde-trained 3-year-old lands M. Smith and can pop and go or stalk and pounce. She’s 5/2 on the morning line and a good gamble at that price. Takethediamondlane is the other dangerous first-timer in the field and is worth including in rolling exotic play. A $300,000 yearling purchase by Bodemeister, she’s shown plenty of speed in the morning for B. Koriner but is another that has taken a longer time than expected to finally get to the post. We’ll include her in our rolling exotics but prefer Remember to Smile on top.

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Playa Chica; 7-Tig Tog

Forecast: Playa Chica, on vacation for a couple of months, returns in a logical spot (nw-2 $32,000 claiming turf miler) and retains F. Prat for the R. Baltas barn, which is due to heat up after a sluggish first three weeks of the Del Mar season. In a soft spot, the daughter of English Channel should fire a big shot off the bench following a steady series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs, and probably will beat this field with a repeat of her most recent race. Tig Tog shows up in a claimer for the first time and has several speed figures on her resume that are good enough to win in this league. She’s been stuck on fifths this year but did break her maiden over this turf course last year, so the return to Del Mar could perk her up. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Playa Chica.

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Single: 5-Best Two Minutes

Forecast: Best Two Minutes, in the money in five of his last six starts, boasts a good record over the local main strip (never worse than second in four outings) and projects to inherit an ideal stalking position in a race that should have a very comfortable – meaning slow – early pace. He’ll have every chance to exert his superiority when the pressure is turned on from the quarter pole home; hopefully he’ll be steered to the outside lanes where most of the winners come from over this anti-inside track. In a below par race for the level, we’ll make the Successful Appeal gelding a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 3:31 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Cunning Munnings; 6-Zipper Mischief; 9-Master Ryan

Forecast: This state-bred maiden special weight turf sprint looks fairly wide. We’ll go three-deep but you should include as many as your budget allows. Zipper Mischief has been away for 10 months and was no factor in his debut two-turning on grass at Santa Anita but he could easily be a better type this time around and is bred to be much better sprinting than routing, so we’re expecting he’ll enjoy this five furlong dash. The son of Into Mischief doesn’t show anything fancy on the work tab, but hails from a clever outfit and is worth a chance at 6-1 on the morning. Master Ryan seems the logical favorite despite his outside draw. Third in both of his starts, albeit with modest speed figures, the P. D’Amato-trained son of Grazen seems likely to settle in mid-pack and then produce his run from the head of the lane to the wire. With another forward move, he’ll be right there. Also worth tossing in somewhere is the first-timer Cunning Munnings, a gelding from the M. Glatt barn with a useful series of workouts. If he can run, this would be a good place to show it.

RACE 5: Post 4:01 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Aced; 6-Emtech

Forecast: Aced exits two much tougher starter allowance sprints and today drops into a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 affair in his first start since May and his first as a gelding. The P. Eurton-trained son of Eskendereya shows a nice recent five furlong drill (1:00 2/5 seconds) over the Del Mar main track that should have him on edge, and with the switch to A. Cedillo he projects to be on or near the lead throughout. Emtech will get plenty of play, though his pattern hardly inspires confidence. A winner of his debut last fall but a voided claim for $75,000, he was turned out and then returned to action at Los Alamitos last month in a first-level allowance race. He received little action and faded after a brief display of speed but should benefit from that outing and seems likely to improve with the significant class drop.

RACE 6: Post 4:31 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Zestful; 4-Zuzanna; 7-Builder

Forecast: Recent runaway Pleasanton winner Zestful, first off the claim for M. Glatt (a terrific 26% with this angle), catches a field without pace (again) and seems capable of dominating from start to finish, even with the switch to turf, a surface he’s just 1-for-7 in his career. The Ghostzapper gelding, clearly most effective when he dictates the running, will be hard to run down unless some unexpected pace pressure materializes, but from who? Builder is drawn a little farther out than we’d prefer but if can get over, save some ground, and settle in the second flight, the Bay Area shipper certainly can act at this starter’s allowance $16,000 level. The son of Gio Ponti was a strong runner-up in the All American S.-G3 two runs back with a career top number and if brings that type of effort today he’ll be the one to fear most. Zuzanna is vastly improved since joining the R. Hess, Jr. barn and seeks her fourth win in her last five starts while tackling the boys. She was very impressive in her most recent victory while earning a career top speed figure and she has enough tactical speed to keep Zestful within shouting distance to the head of the lane. Then it’s up to her.

RACE 7: Post 5:01 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Solar Nova; 5-Kuda Huraa; 6-Destiny’s Journey

Forecast: With the scratching of Small Surprise, this race becomes a complete raffle. The known element is thoroughly uninspiring, so it would hardly be surprising if a newcomer won, but which one? Kudos Huraa and Destiny’s Journey have shown a bit of life in the morning and probably can run a tad, so we’ll include them, while Solar Nova has managed to hit the board in both of her starts but comes from a low percentage (6%) barn. We suggest you include these three in rolling exotic play and then add anything else that might catch your eye.