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Friday, August 9: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 9, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Friday, August 9, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Two Top Plays at Saratoga on August 9th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-El Dulce

Forecast: El Dulce is a class-dropping Laurel Park shipper with the blinkers-off angle that we like so much, and the son of Twirling Candy projects as the speed of the speed in this abbreviated turf sprint for restricted (nw-2) $30,000 claimers. A winner over this course and distance two years ago, he’ll outrun this group with a repeat of his race-before-last. However, at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he won’t offer any wagering value. We can use him as a rolling exotic single, or simply pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Bebeau; 8-Super Silver

Forecast: We’ll double the second race, a maiden-claiming $40,000 router on the main track. Bebeau shows up in a seller for the first time in his first outing since January and his first as a gelding. The T. Pletcher-trained son of Bernardini should enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip and then go on with it when set down. The work tab seems healthy so we’re going to assume that he’s fit and ready for barn that has remarkable stats (32% with a flat-bet profit) with the layoff angle. Super Silver, a solid second in a similar affair over this track and distance last month, won’t need much more to graduate today. It was his first start since arriving from the Midwest and his first for B. Brown, and the effort produce a career top speed figure, one that makes him a solid contender.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Stock Trade; 2-Willing to Speed; 5-Red Right Hand

Forecast: Stock Trade should draft into an ideal pace-prompting, ground-saving trip and be able to fire his best shot in this starter’s allowance ($50,000) affair that came up evenly matched but not particularly strong. He’s one of at least three that can win. Willing to Speed in a strong fit on recent speed figures will be bearing down late. Red Right Hand didn’t get the best of runs and had to settle for third in a similar affair over this course and distance last month. He’s lightly raced with rising speed figures and with a clear run today will be right there. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-First Deputy; 10-Lord Camden

Forecast: First Deputy was impressive at the Fasig-Tipton May preview session, breezing a quarter mile in a quick 21 3/5 seconds without undue pressure before galloping out well. The son of Awesome Again hasn’t been asked to show much in the morning since arriving at the L. Rice barn but should be fit enough to be a major player in this state-bred event and will offer value at his morning line of 6-1 if you can get it. Lord Camden must overcome the extreme outside draw, but the son of Freud is bred to be quick and showed an impressive recent gate drill (4f, :47 3/5 seconds, fifth fastest of 44) here last week. The M. Casse stable sends ‘em out fit and ready (18% with a flat-bet profit with first-timers), so at 5-1 ‘Camden is worth including in your rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Lone Sailor; 2-Spinoff

Forecast: Spinoff adds blinkers for the first time while tackling older foes and after competing in four consecutive graded stakes races this drop into a second-level allowance event could help get the son of Hard Spun back on the proper track. He’s back with “win rider” Johnny V. and should settle in the second flight while saving ground and then show his best stuff from the quarter pole home. Lone Sailor is the morning line favorite (7/5) and will get plenty of play based on the company he’s been keeping. The son of Majestic Warrior likes to lag and produce a late run and after chasing the best older horses on both coasts in recent starts this group should be well within his range. We’ll give the younger Spinoff the edge on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Voting Agreement

Forecast: Voting Agreement has trained like an extremely quick filly for C. Brown and debuts exactly where her pedigree says she should, on turf. The daughter of More Than Ready has outworked everything led up to her and really hasn’t been allowed to show her best speed. Today, we suspect she’ll be allowed. At 7/2 on the morning with J. Castellano in the saddle, we’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Eagle Pass; 7-Shareholder Value; 9-Shut the Box

Forecast: Here’s a competitive seven furlong sprint for $25,000 claimers that has a number of possibilities. We’ll use three but you may find the need to go deeper. Shut the Box, a $50,000 claim last March at Oaklawn Park but off the track since, returns for half that amount, normally a suspicious sign, but trainer R. Diodoro, who had him before and claimed him back, wins a lot of races with aggressive moves such as this so we’re going to assume the Hard Spun gelding is fit and ready. Eagle Pass, first off the $25,000 claim for B. Levine but away since mid-May, returns at that same price, a pattern that quite frankly we’re not in love with from this particular outfit, but if the son of Super Saver fires his best shot he’ll be right there. A winner of four races from nine starts with strong, consistent speed figures, he has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint distance. Shareholder Value moves up a level in quest of his third straight score for new trainer M. Miceli and has numbers that make him dangerous despite the slight class hike. A sharp winner over this track and distance last month, the son of Uncle Mo can win on the lead or as a stalker from the second flight, so J. Lezcano, who knows him well and fits him perfectly, can adjust to whatever race flow develops.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Malakeh; 5-Dream Passage; 10-Victorine

Forecast: Dream Passage is racing in good form for B. Cox and with J. Rosario apparently opting for her over Victorine we’ll put the hard-hitting daughter of Stormy Atlantic on top. Based on the pace projection (soft) she may wind up being the controlling speed, though she has shown the ability to win from anywhere depending upon the race flow. Victorine was a listed stakes winner in France last year but hasn’t been out since last October, so she might be a race away for Clement. Both of here wins overseas came over good-to-soft turf; today she might have to show what she’s capable of doing on firm ground. Malakeh is a fit on figures but was a bit rank and failed to punch it in when tried in stakes company at Laurel Park in mid-June. Freshened and with a healthy work pattern at Fair Hill for for G. Motion, she was group-stakes placed in Germany last year and should at least get a piece of it with these.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Killybegs Captain; 3-Pat on the Back; 4-He Hate Me

Forecast: The Tale of the Cat Stakes is a restricted six furlong affair for older horses and has at least three major players that are more than capable of winning. Killybegs Captain stumbled at the start, lost his best chance, but then did well to finish third behind Promises Fulfilled in the John Nerud S.-G2 here last month. This is an easier task, so if he leaves cleanly and reproduces his best effort, the veteran son of Mizzen Mast should fold into an ideal pace-prompting position and then have every chance to exert his superiority when it matters. Pat On the Back, a tough-as-nails New York-bred sprinter, has won four of his last six starts and is eight for 24 overall. Freshened since late May, the J. Engelhart trained son of Congrats acts at any distance but at this six furlong trip he’ll most likely be ridden as a deep closing sprinter. With good racing luck and a decent pace, he should be heard from late. He Hate Me earned a career top speed figure when beating a conditioned allowance field over this track and distance last month. These are tougher for sure, but he could be dangerous if he can manufacture another forward move.

RACE 10: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Dancing Vega

Forecast: Dancing Vega is blessed with immense talent and will beat this field in her U.S. debut if she minds her manners. After winning her only start as a 2-year-old last fall at Doncaster, she returned as the favorite in the Fred Darling S.-G3 in April but finished 12th of 15 in a disappointing run. She’ll race with Lasix today for C. Brown and has been more than holding her own in recent workouts while in company with the high class Uni, so she really should have too much firepower for this first-level allowance field. However, she’s a tough ride and tends to pull hard and get rank. If I. Ortiz Jr. can get her to switch off and relax behind horses, she’ll be just fine. At 3-1 on the morning line we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.