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Wednesday, August 14: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 14, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Wednesday, August 14, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Best Bets at Saratoga on August 14th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Pass/No Play

Forecast: Today’s first race is for hurdlers. We will pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 1:22 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Beyond Gone

Forecast: Beyond Gone has much in his favor in this maiden special weight sprint for 2-year-olds that were sold or RNA’d for $45,000 in their most recent sale. The K. McPeek-trained colt was nearly three lengths clear of the rest when a strong runner-up in his debut last month and has since breezed three times, including a nice half-mile move in company six days ago. This barn has strong stats with second-time starters, and with the switch to J. Ortiz the son of Can the Man looks likely to graduate but at a very short price (he’s even money on the morning line). We’ll make him a no-value rolling exotic single in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: C
Use: 2-Regaliano; 3-Reason to Soar; 5-Mad Munnys

Forecast: We’ll spread the third race, a $16,000 claiming sprint for older horses. Mad Munnys plummets in class for Rudy and returns to the main track while switching to one of this barn’s go-to riders, L. Saez. Based on his current form, this drop is warranted and at this level the son of Munnings appears to have found his friends. Reason to Soar, freshened since April when his form had gone completely south, could return a much better type after the vacation for G. Weaver, who is solid with comebackers. He shows the first-time-in-claimer angle and a work tab that seems decent enough, so with J. Ortiz taking the call the veteran Soaring Empire gelding should be a contender. Regalian earned a career-top speed figure in a win at Finger Lakes last month and if he can duplicate that effort on the Big Circuit he should be right there. A prior win over the Saratoga main track looks good on the resume. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but if you can afford to go deeper, go right ahead.

RACE 4: Post 2:26 ET. Grade: C
Use: 1-Dublin Pub; 5-Honorable Hero; 7-Gosilently

Forecast: Here’s another spread race, this one a state-bred nine furlong turf event for first-level allowance runners. Gosilently needs the front end and catches a pace scenario that should allow him to be the controlling speed, but he’s 2-for-20 lifetime with 14 seconds and thirds and the final furlong has been - and likely will be today - an exercise in desperation. On his best day, he’d wire this field, but at 2-1 on the morning line he’s not terribly attractive. Bad Guy gets the worst of the draw and is 1-for-27 with 15 seconds and thirds, so he’s even less trustworthy than Gosilently. The good news is that his one victory came on grass, and with the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. following a recent bullet three furlong blowout the son of Power Broke has a healthy pattern and numbers that put him in the picture. Dublin Pub is considerably slower on figures than Gosilently but lands the rail and seems assured of a good ground-saving trip in his first outing on the Big Circuit. His form at Finger Lakes is fairly consistent and may translate to grass, though it’s fair to point out that he doesn’t have any type of turf pedigree to lean on. At 15-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two.

RACE 5: Post 2:58 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-My Bronx Tail; 6-Stand for the Flag; 7-Comic

Forecast: My Bronx Tail is a seven-race maiden and pretty much exposed at this stage but if the daughter of Speightstown repeats her last race she’ll probably earn her diploma in this better-than-average seven furlong affair for fillies and mares. Collared in the final strides by the next-out winner La Chancla while almost seven lengths clear of the rest last month at Belmont Park, the M. Nevin-trained 4-year-olds projects as the controlling speed and should be hard to run down based on speed figures. Stand for the Flag showed some talent when nosed out in her debut almost a year ago over this track and distance but then disappeared. She returns for new trainer J. Servis (an amazing 38% with a considerable flat-bet profit with comebackers) while showing a typical slow and brief series of workouts for this stable and will be dangerous if she can repeat or improve upon her 2-year-old form. Comic is an intriguing first time starter by Distorted Humor with an impressive series of workouts and a cozy outside post. The R. Brisset barn isn’t known to win first time out but this filly might have some run, and at 8-1 on the morning she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Astoria Kitten; 8-Sister Beauty

Forecast: Astoria Kitten breezed a quarter mile in 21 4/5 seconds at the OBS March sale and then brought $150,000 at auction. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy debuts where she fits – in a two-turn grass maiden special weight affair – for the high percentage D. Gargan barn, though there is a concern that this stable’s record with debut runners is below par. Still, she’s the logical top pick in this state-bred affair in which the known element doesn’t really inspire. Of those with past experience, Sister Beauty probably has the most room to improve. A non-threatening but better-than-looked fifth in her sprint debut over a wet-sealed track that she appeared to greatly dislike, the daughter of Revolutionary retains J. Rosario and seems certain to perform better under these conditions. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth consideration in rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Kimari

Forecast: Kimari broke her maiden by 15 lengths in her debut at Keeneland in April and then ran even better when a sensational second, beaten a head, in the 25-runner Queen Mary S.-G2 at Royal Ascot. She returns to the States for trainer W. Ward and will race sans blinkers and with J. Velasquez staying aboard. An easy breeze over the Saratoga turf training track four days ago should have her right on edge, but at 3/5 on the morning line she’ll offer no value, so we’ll make her a rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

RACE 8: Post 4:34 ET. Grade: C
Use: 7-Allured; 8-Passcode

Forecast: Allured has been away since February and shows up in a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claimer, which at first glance seems like a logical spot for the 3/5 favorite in this seven furlong sprint. The C. Brown barn has a terrific percentage with comebackers (27%) and on numbers the son of Flatter dominates, however, this first-time gelding was originally a $600,000 2-year-old in training purchase and clearly is being culled, plus a team workout 11 days ago was less inspiring than it should have been. Let’s put it this way: he can win, but who needs the price? Those trying to beat the favorite may consider Passcode, nosed out in a $25,000 restricted seller here last month after stumbling badly at the start and then finishing more than three lengths clear of the rest. He goes first-off-the-clam for J. Ferraro, switches to R. Santana, Jr., lands the cozy outside post, and is listed at 8-1 on the morning line.

RACE 9: Post 5:06 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Harv Won’t Tap; 11-Golden Spear

Forecast: Today’s ninth race is a grass grab bag for $25,000 claiming routers. Let’s try to get by using just two, though if you feel the need to spread, go right ahead. Harv Won’t Tap drops well below his claim level in his second start since being haltered for $40,000 by B. Brown, not a healthy pattern, but he does retain J. Rosario so we’ll assume the veteran gelding remains healthy enough. Generally an honest and consistent performer, the son of Divine Park can turn it on late and earned a respectable speed figure in his most recent start despite trying to rally wide into the teeth of slow splits, which thwarted his late bid. This is a field he can act with. Golden Spear, freshened since late June after a couple of substandard races, drops for the money run while retaining I. Ortiz, Jr. and should fold into a nice pace-prompting position outside and then have every chance when the pressure gets turned on.

RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-A Dixie Twister; 2-Morissette; 10-Linda’s Ballet

Forecast: The finale is a contentious starter’s allowance turf sprint for older fillies and mares. Morissette arrives in sharp form, having won a restricted $40,000 turf sprint at Monmouth Park in clever fashion last month while earning a speed figures that makes her a strong fit on this circuit at this level. She’s a 3-year-old with plenty of room for further development and seems primed to step forward again. A Dixie Twister, from the he M. Miceli barn, is protected today after sharp back-to-back scores vs mid-level claiming competition at Belmont Park while earning competitive speed figures. D. Davis, who fits her well, stays aboard, and should have the daughter of Hard Spun in an ideal, ground-saving, second-flight position and ready to pounce from the quarter pole home. Linda’s Ballet, a $40,000 Rudy claim, is considerably slower on speed figures than she needs to be to win at this level but who’s to say she won’t leap forward for her new connections? A maiden claiming $40,000 winner over this course and distance last month, the daughter of Maclean’s Music retains J. Lezcano and should settle outside in the second flight and then launch her bid from the top of the lane. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.