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Thursday, August 15: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 15, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, August 15, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Saratoga on August 15th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Amazing Audrey; 4-Bareeqa

Forecast: In a race that on paper boils down to two main contenders, we’ll give the slight edge on top due to price considerations to Bareeqa, a class dropper from the hot D. Gargan barn. She remains above her claim level, but after failing in a pair of second-level allowance races, the veteran mare should thoroughly enjoy this class relief while retaining I. Ortiz, Jr. She’s won three of six races over the Saratoga turf course and with her best effort looks capable of producing the last run. Amazing Audrey can be effective on the front end but with other speed signed on is more than capable of stalking and pouncing if the situation dictates. The Midwest invader is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga lawn and is more than fast enough on speed figures to win, hence her strong morning line favoritism of 6/5. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-British Idiom; 7-Miraculousblessing; Talk You Out of It

Forecast: Miraculousblessing, a $28,000 OBS June sale purchase where despite appearing a bit green breezed quickly in 10 second flat while displaying a long, athletic stride, is a sneaky Monmouth Park shipper that we suspect is considerably better than her 12-1 morning line. Bred to have speed and from a capable outfit, the daughter of Rattlesnake Bridge may be capable of springing a surprise in a wide open maiden juvenile dash. British Idiom is another intriguing first timer showing a series of eye-catching workouts at Churchill Downs and before that Ellis Park. It’s encouraging that top trainer B. Cox – with an excellent 23% win-rate with first-timers – ships the daughter of Flashback to Saratoga, where she’s eligible to this restricted maiden special weight affair due to having been sold at auction for less than $45,000 (she actually brought $40,000 at the Fasig-Tipton October sale). She, too, looks attractive at 9/2 on the morning line. Talk You Out of It has plenty of experience, having already started four times, hitting the board in each outing. She lacks early speed and probably can’t beat a decent sort, but there may or may not be one in here. Toss her in as saver, if nothing else.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B
Single: 3-No Dozing

Forecast: No Dozing lays over this field with anything close to his best race but having been beaten as the favorite in both of his 2019 outings the veteran gelding has to prove that he can still walk the walk. The runaway winner of the Bold Ruler H.-G3 last year with a sensational 107 Beyer speed figure, the son of Union Rags hasn’t come close to repeating that but he did flash improvement between his most recent race and his race before last, and with another forward move today should be able to seal the deal. Two recent bullet workouts at Fair Hill certainly are encouraging, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single while hoping to get close to his morning line of 9/5.

RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Relentless Dancer; 4-Mystic Lancelot

Forecast: Mystic Lancelot cost $450,000 at the Timonium 2-year-old in training sale and debuts in this five and one-half furlong turf sprint as the logical top choice in a race that doesn’t appear overly strong. The son of Into Mischief breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds on the bullring and did it fairly well (was late changing leads and drifted out on the turn) but went better in a team grass work over the Saratoga turf training track six days ago while getting over the surface just fine. He’s certainly fit enough for a good effort for the Pletcher barn, which has done well with debut runners this meeting and hits with an impressive 23% overall with first-time starters. Relentless Dancer ships in from Kentucky boasting a series of impressive workouts at the Churchill Downs training center and we don’t suspect this Louisiana-bred juvenile would be here unless trainer M. Maker thought he could act on the Big Circuit. An $85,000 Ocala April sale purchase, the son of Midshipman went well enough at the preview session in 10 1/5 seconds and is worth some consideration at 8-1 on the morning line.

RACE 5: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Teachable Moment; 5-Sneakiness

Forecast: We’ll double the fifth race, a maiden $50,000 seven furlong claimer with not much in it. Sneakiness, a first-time gelding with both the maiden-to-maiden claiming class drop and blinkers off angles working for him, has a right to improve in this league and has back numbers that are more than good enough to win. J. Rosario stays aboard and should have this son of Into Mischief in a good stalking position with every chance to exert his superiority from the head of the lane to the wire. Teachable Moment, a recent $40,000 claim by a barn that has terrific stats (28%) with this angle, seems likely to improve for new connections and shouldn’t be bothered by the switch from grass to dirt, as his only prior main track effort (second, beaten a head last year in a maiden special weight sprint) was obviously pretty good. He’s not quick early and therefore the rail draw might invite traffic problems down the backstretch, but if the son of More Than Ready can work out a decent trip then he should be in the thick of things late.

RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 3-False Info; 6-Mo Zone; 11-Dull Knife

Forecast: Dull Knife clearly was well-regarded early in his career, winning his debut at Deauville before being privately purchased, but since arriving in the States, the son of Scat Daddy, who was gelded earlier this year, hasn’t progressed while failing as the favorite in three of his five local starts. Perhaps this drop to this restricted (nw-2) $30,000 level will wake him up. On numbers, the T. Pletcher-trained 3-year-old should be quite competitive, so we’ll use him but certainly not as a single. Mo Zone also shows up in a seller for the first time following two lethargic efforts but he, too, has speed figures that make him a major player in a soft affair. The E. Kenneally-trained gelding tries grass for the first time but offspring of Uncle Mo run on anything, so maybe he’ll like it. False Info, another first-time gelding, makes his first start in two months while returning to his claim level for B. Brown and could improve enough to be a threat, though on speed figures he’ll need to really step it up. At 12-1 on the morning line he’s worth including on a ticket or two.

RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Andretta; 10-Silencia; 11-Beaux Arts

Forecast: Here’s a turf raffle for state-bred first-level allowance fillies and mares sprinting five and one-half furlongs that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough, but best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Andretta finally broke her maiden in her 9th career start for Bond, James Bond, and did so with a career top speed figure, one that gives her a realistic chance right back despite the class hike. She has a good stalking style and two easy breezes since her win last month, so we’re expecting the daughter of Freud to run her race. Silencia is a useful Laurel Park invader with plenty of early speed and likely will try gate-to-wire tactics for her Maryland-based connections. If she can shake loose early without undue pressure, she could take this field a long way. Beaux Arts has hit the board in her last four starts, has speed figures that are competitive, and she’s also a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga turf course, having won here as a 2-year-old (but winless since. With low percentage connections and a habit of running second (nine times), she’s probably worth no more than a saver ticket or two, at best.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Holiday Disguise; 2-Bonita Bianca; 3-Baby Boss

Forecast: Bonita Bianca is the defending race champion and for that reason alone she has to be considered a major contender. Away since May but hailing from the J. Servis barn, whose stats with layoff runners (28%) are superb, the daughter of Curlin is re-equipped with blinkers (she’s won with them in the past) and has the proper second-flight style for this extended sprint distance. With the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr., we’re expecting to see her best stuff in the final furlong. Holiday Disguise seems pretty solid in this state-bred sprint stakes for fillies and mares, rail and all. A winner of half of her 16 career starts and fresh from a sharp score in the Dancing Renee Stakes at Belmont Park in mid-June, the L. Rice-trained mare should settle in the second flight and then, if room develops, have every chance when it matters the most. Baby Boss just earned a career top Beyer speed figure (93) in winning a Laurel Park allowance race over a track rated “good” in late June and if she can repeat that type of performance today she will pose a danger. The daughter of Frost Giant has been successful at this six and one-half furlong distance in the past but is a need-the-lead type in a field with other committed speed, so her task won’t be easy.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Sterling Beauty; 8-Kerry’s Ring; 12-Crescent Lady

Forecast: The nightcap is an inscrutable state-bred maiden special weight inner turf miler for fillies and mares; we’ll go three-deep but without any degree of confidence. Kerry’s Ring may be as good as any; she’s strong in the speed figure department, retains J. Rosario, has good tactical speed and room for improvement. However, she just failed at 3/5 without any visible excuse. Crescent Lady gets the worst of the draw and also was beaten as the choice in her last start, but with just two starts under her belt the daughter of Scat Daddy has plenty of room to improve. J. Ortiz stays aboard for Mott and a nice recent half mile dirt workout in 47 4/5 seconds (third fastest of 70) is encouraging. Sterling Beauty, got a piece of it in an New York Stallion Stakes when earning a career top (but a nothing special) speed figure, has finished third in four of her second career starts (including one in a maiden-claimer) and has a reasonable chance to at least hit the board again. Tread lightly here.