Log In

Thursday, August 15: Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 15, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Thursday, August 15, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on August 15th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C
Single: 1-Empress of Love

Forecast: Empress of Lov draws the rail, which normally would be just fine going a mile on the main track, but the inside lanes have been deep all season (as usual) so if the C. Dollase-trained filly gets stuck down there from start to finish she could be in trouble. On pure form the daughter of Empire Way towers over this field but at 9/5 on the morning and potentially going lower you’d have to think there are better opportunities later in the program. You can use her as a rolling exotic single, try to beat her, or better yet just pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Snazzy Dresser; 3-Calle Kingpin; 6-Erotic

Forecast: Here’s another uninspiring affair, this one for $32,000 claimers over nine furlongs on grass. Calle Kingdom just won for $40,000 and today drops a level, never a healthy sign, and to make matters worse he’s facing a committed front-runner in Snazzy Dresser, so the easy front-running trip that he enjoyed in his local win last month probably won’t be available this time. On paper, it sure looks like he’s for sale, especially with Golden Gate Fields re-opening and this gelding’s ability to act both grass and the all-weather surface up north. Snazzy Dresser has numbers that make him a major player, especially if he can secure his coveted front-running trip from Calle Kingpin (and from his rail post that’s entirely possible). The Soldat gelding exits a tougher race, has a prior win over the local lawn, and can handle the nine furlong journey. Erotic is reunited with “win rider” Prat and seems the most dangerous of the deep closers. If a pace duel develops, he should be the beneficiary. In a race that we’ll otherwise sit out, all three can be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Unbroken Star; 5-Secret Courier; Tidal Effect

Forecast: Three of the six runners in this starter’s allowance main track miler have credentials to win, so this is yet another pass race. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics. Tidal Effect can win if ready for new trainer T. Yakteen, but the Malibu Moon gelding hasn’t been out since last November and the work tab, while fairly solid, doesn’t guarantee that he’s completely cranked up. On pure numbers he’s good enough to win and having finished first or second in three of his four previous outings over the track he’s proven he likes this deep surface. Secret Courier was blown away by Julius in a fast, highly-rated event on opening day but was a clear second while earning a respectable speed figure despite being beaten 11 lengths. This group presents no such challengers, and as the controlling speed the B. Koriner-trained gelding should take this field a very long way. Unbroken Star graduated at first asking with a nice number and appears to have been a timely claim by M. Puype. There’s no reason the son of Broken Vow won’t move forward, and with J. Talamo staying aboard he’ll get the patient ride he apparently prefers.

RACE 4: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Miss Tokyo; 8-Tinnie

Forecast: We’ll double the fourth race, a five furlong turf sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. Miss Tokyo hasn’t been asked to show her best stuff in the morning but this R. Baltas-trained filly should be plenty fit and ready for a top effort first crack out of the box. Tinnie, a debuting daughter of Congrats from the R. Mandella barn, has a quick gate work here last month (34 4/5 seconds) that catches the eye and with hot-riding F. Prat aboard she has the look of a live item. In a race in which the known element doesn’t impress, let’s stick with two newcomers while preferring Miss Tokyo on top.

RACE 5: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Biddy Duke; 5-Leucothea

Forecast: Here’s an oddity: both main contenders in this maiden $62,500 claiming sprint for juvenile fillies exit the same race – at Ellis Park. Leucothea gets blinkers and Lasix after finishing a troubled seventh in that July 4 race and today shows up for a high-priced tag while seeking some of that lucrative ship-and-win bonus purse money for P. Miller. She was well-backed (4-1) in that race so let’s see what she can do today with clear sailing through the lane. Biddy Duke, purchased privately out of the same race and now in the R. Hess, Jr., barn, has plenty of zip but has had some difficulty finding more when it matters in the final furlong. We’ll see how far he can take them today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Leucothea.

RACE 6: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Sheastheritestuff

Forecast: Sheastheritestuff always has liked the Del Mar main track and appears finally to have returned to her best form following a sharp third place finish in a similar state-bred optional claimer over this course and distance last month. She’s capable of better, and with another forward move today the D. O’Neill-trained mare should be along in plenty of time. We’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2.

RACE 7: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Navy Queen; 7-Liberalism; 10-I Want One

Forecast: The finale is a maiden special weight five and one-half furlong sprint for juvenile state-bred fillies. There are no world beaters among the known element, though Liberalism ran decently in her debut over this track last month when pressing the pace and then hanging on pretty well for second while earning an okay number. If she can produce a forward move for a barn that has superior stats with this angle, the daughter of Broken Vow should be home free. Navy Queen, a fair third in her debut last month in a similar event, may improve, though this barn doesn’t have a history of success with second-time starters. I Want One was beaten a half-length in her debut while competing for a $50,000 tag on the same afternoon that Liberalism ran and could improve enough for A. Lerner to be a threat despite the raise to straight maiden company. She’s drawn comfortably outside and on pure speed figures has to be given a bit of a look.