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Friday, August 16: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 16, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-two-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-16th-2019

RACE 1: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+ 
Single: 1-Conquest Smartee 

Forecast: Conquest Smartee has a decided edge on speed figures in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint but had the misfortune of drawing the dreaded rail. He’s in good form for new trainer R. Hanson, exits a hot race, and was well clear of the rest in his most recent outing so if he can duplicate that effort today he should be tough to beat, poor draw notwithstanding. However, with all that said, he’s not trustworthy (he’s 1-for-14 with nine seconds and thirds) so if you want the action you can use him as a rolling exotic single, or better yet, simply pass the race. 

RACE 2: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Zipper Mischief; 3-Tiger Dad; 4-Tristram Speaker 

Forecast: Tristram Speaker broke his maiden for fun up north in his debut and then verified the performance when finishing a good third in a much tougher first-level allowance affair here last month. The A. Mathis-trained gelding switches to F. Prat in his first try on turf, and if he can duplicate his dirt form on the sod he should be capable of winning this state-bred abbreviated sprint. Tiger Dad is fast on figures, having earned a career top when a sharp runner-up over this course and distance last month in a similar event. It was his first start since January, so if the son of Smiling Tiger can produce a forward move he’ll be the one to beat. Zipper Mischief got away with a very soft opening quarter and then crushed a modest maiden field under these conditions just eight days ago. He’s wheeled back quickly by B. Heap, but with just two career starts under his belt the son of Into Mischief has plenty of room for further improvement. These are the three we’ll be using in rolling exotic play; let’s give Tristram Speaker a very slight edge on top. 

RACE 3: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 5-Cleveland Cat; 8-Tap Back; 10-Mainstream Judy 

Forecast: The third race is a maiden special weight sprint for juveniles and appears to be a better-than-par race for the level. Tap Back is an intriguing Bay Area invader in the J. Bonde barn and could spring an upset based on his sneaky good work tab at Golden Gate Fields. Two bullet drills jump off the page, so while he’s hardly bred to be a precocious, quick-type, the son of Einstein appears to have quite a bit of run. Mainframe Judy is a first-timer from the P. Miller barn with F. Prat aboard, so you know this colt will take plenty of play, and deservedly so. A 59 4/5 seconds drill over the deepish Del Mar main track (fastest of 31) provides strong evidence that this son of Atilla’s Storm is fit and ready. Cleveland Cat was fractious loading in his debut, then showed no early speed to the head of the lane before suddenly taking hold and finishing a distant second while never a worry to easy winner Big Returns, who came out of the race to win the Graduation Stakes earlier this month. If ‘Cat can display some early speed today, he’ll be a strong threat, but if he spots the field 10 lengths again he’ll probably give himself too much to do. 
RACE 4: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Silky Slew; 3-Stylishly; 4-Andyoushallreceive 

Forecast: Silky Slew won over this course last year and launches a comeback for a barn that has terrific stats with layoff runners. In a race without much speed, the lightly-raced five-year-old mare could be quick enough to be on or near the front end, and off the career top speed figure that earned here last year could be good enough to spring a mild surprise in a wide open turf sprint for fillies and mares. Stylishly took advantage of a perfect trip to win well over this course and distance when breaking her maiden in her first start since arriving from New York. She has a right to produce a forward move for S. Callaghan and looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types. Andyoushallreceive won her debut as a 2-year-old, so we know she can fire fresh, and she was listed stakes-placed in her other outing last year, so the daughter of Fed Biz has displayed some quality in her brief career. She makes her first start since last October with a series of slow and easy drills, but the Koriner-barn is excellent with comebackers and could have this 3-year-old ready for a top effort in the seasonal bow. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press keying Silky Slew on top. 

RACE 5: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Rizzie’s Honors; 4-Party Hostess; 6-Red Livy 

Forecast: Here’s a messy bottom-rung claiming sprint for fillies and mares that is difficult to grasp. We’ll use three but without any real conviction. Rizzie’s Honours is a perfect one-for-one over the Del Mar main track and has back numbers that would be more than good enough to win at this level. Red Livy makes her first start since being claimed for this price by B. McLean and could improve enough to take this field gate to wire. She knows how to win races (5-for-20) and a repeat of her race before last at Los Alamitos puts her right in the hunt. Party Hostess does her best work as a late-running sprinter and if the pace melts down she should be heard from in the final furlong. With the switch to R. Bejarano, she’ll get the patient ride she needs. 
RACE 6: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Distorted Win; 7-Shear Class; 8-Blue Moonrise 

Forecast: Blue Moonrise burned money when beaten at 50 cents on the dollar in a similar maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares last month but this appears to be an easier bunch and with the always significant blinkers-off angle jumping off the page the B. Baffert-trained daughter of Malibu Moon may deserve one more chance. Shear Class has shown some ability in the a.m. for J. Sherriffs, whose record with first-time starters is a bit better than you’d expect for a trainer not known to crank up his maidens. The daughter of Curlin probably will do better with experience and distance but may be worth a look under M. Smith, nonetheless. Distorted Win is buried on the rail but has a right to step forward after showing a bit of ability in her debut when a close fifth in a turf sprint. She gets Lasix today for R. Mandella, whose second-timers usually improve. Also, the switch to dirt shouldn’t be an issue for a filly whose pedigree suggests she’ll do better on the main track. 

RACE 7: Post 7:00 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Pantsonfire; 5-Lostintranzlation 

Forecast: Pantsonfire is winless in seven career starts over the Del Mar turf course, but that’s the only negative we can find for the Irish-bred mare, who should outclass this listed stakes field over a mini-marathon distance that she’s proven she can handle. Third in the Possibly Perfect Stakes in mid-June in her last outing, the R. Baltas-trained daughter of Sir Percy retains F. Prat and beats this field with a repeat of either one of her last two starts. Baltas also sends out another main player, Lostintranzlation, a gate-to-wire winner over this course and distance vs. first-level allowance competition last month. She’s a need-the-lead type and likely will get her coveted trip today so we’ll include her in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 8: Post 7:30 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 5-Dawood; 6-Refractometer 

Forecast: Dawood and Refractometer finished two-three in a similar maiden $20,000 claimer at Los Alamitos last month and in a below standard race for the level they’re the two main players once again. Neither one can be considered trustworthy but both come from a top stable and can be expected to run their race. Dawood gets a very slight edge on top due to his superior speed figures, and his dirt form clearly is better than his efforts on grass. Both should be used in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.