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Saturday, August 17: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 17, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-two-plays-at-saratoga-on-august-17th-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Market Impact; 9-Acre 

Forecast: The first race has been taken off the turf and shortened to seven furlongs. Market Impact, entered as an MTO, will now run and makes his debut after doing some very good work in the morning for C. Brown, though his actual workout times don’t jump off the page. He’s really never been asked to show his best, but the son of Carpe Diem appears to have enough talent to handle this assignment. Acre has the benefit of a prior run, finishing seventh in a fast, highly-rated race won by the promising Shoplifted. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Blame figures to improve with experience and distance and can be included in rolling exotic play as at least a saver. 

RACE 2: Post 1:35 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Miss Imperial; 6-Carizzo 

Forecast: Carizzo demolished a $25,000 claiming field last month and was haltered by D. Cannizzo, who, in a sign of confidence, raises her all the way up to the $75,000 level. Based on the speed figure she just earned, the daughter of Paynter should be more than capable of taking the class hike in stride from her cozy outside draw. Miss Imperial is worth including as well. The J. Servis-trained filly is moving in the opposite direction – down in class – after exiting a series of stakes races in which she has managed to hit the board in her four most recent outings. Numbers-wise, she’s right there with Carizzo, but must leave from the rail. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics; Carizzo likely will be a tad better price so we’ll give her a slight edge on top. 

RACE 3: Post 2:08 ET. Grade: C 
Single: 7-All About It 

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf. All About It has a suspicious pattern, and what you see might not be what you get. Second in his debut behind the very talented Fog of War and then a very respectable fourth (beaten just over a length) in the Indian Summer Stakes last fall at Keeneland, the $425,000 2-year-old in training purchase makes his comeback in $40,000 seller as if to indicate that his current connections don’t believe he has a long term future. If the G. Weaver-trained sophomore has one good one left, he’ll beat this field (assuming he stays in the race) but that may be a big if. We’ll put him on top, but if there’s a race to simply sit out and pass today, this is it. 

RACE 4: Post 2:41 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 4-Giant Boo Boo 

Forecast: Giant Boo Boo drops significantly in class for the money run and if the Frost Giant gelding has at least one good one left he’ll likely beat this $14,000 claiming field. He’s a fast horse on his best day and against this group he should be able to control proceedings from start to finish, with only There He Goes owning the kind of speed that might keep him company early on. Reunited with “win rider” J. Ortiz, the J. Englehart-trained 4-year-old would appear to offer some value at his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it. 

RACE 5: Post 3:14 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Devamani; 3-Stella d’Oro; 7-Bird’s Eye View 

Forecast: This mini-marathon allowance optional claimer on grass appears fairly contentious. We’ll go three deep while preferring Devamani slightly on top. The French-bred gelding takes a slight drop in class, projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip throughout in this three-turn affair and has earned consistently good speed figures that are better than par for this level. He’s back with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. and should be able to produce the last run. Stella d’Oro is intriguing; he’s had only three career starts so his upside is unknown. The son of See the Stars won his U.S. debut in an off-the-turfer at Arlington Park last month in game style, and while this is a tougher group he picks up J. Rosario and stretches out to a distance he’s bred to handle. At 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth using. Bird’s Eye View should be on or near the lead throughout and has shown the ability to win at this trip. If not pressured early, he may never look back. 

RACE 6: Post 3:47 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 8-Sayyaaf 

Forecast: Sayyaf was quite impressive beating maidens over this course and distance last month with a big figure, one that should allow him to successfully handle this class hike in a race that he should be able to control from start to finish. The C. Brown-trained colt has looked good in the morning since that win, retains J. Castellano, and appears to be a 3-year-old on the way up. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 7: Post 4:20 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 4-Candy Tycoon 

Forecast: Candy Tycoon has done everything asked of him in the morning, acts like a superior prospect for T. Pletcher, and seems certain to be a short price favorite when the latch is sprung in this six and one-half furlong sprint for 2-year-olds. The son of Twirling Candy, a $170,000 OBS April sale purchase, shows two eye-catching recent gate works to have him fit and ready for a barn that has strong stats with debut runners. At 2-1 on the morning line – he could easily go lower – he’s a logical rolling exotic single. 

RACE 8: Post 4:53 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 5-Morticia 

Forecast: Here’s another likely short-priced winning favorite and logical rolling exotic single. Morticia suffered through a brutal trip when third as the favorite in the Caress Stakes under these conditions last month – she was blocked badly most of the stretch drive and had no chance to mount a rally – but today she can make amends with any kind of decent trip. The thoroughly genuine and consistent daughter of Twirling Candy regains the services of “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr. and should be within striking range to the head of the lane before uncorking her late kick. She’s even money on the morning line for a reason. 

RACE 9: Post 5:26 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Varenka; 4-Blowout; 5-Regal Glory 

Forecast: The Lake Placid Stakes brings together a group of evenly matched 3-year-old fillies. Varenka was very impressive beating a lesser field over this course and distance last month, and while this is a raise up the class ladder she’s a strong fit on speed figures and could easily be up to the task. Regal Glory and Blowout were the one-two finishers in the Lake George S.-G3 – they were separated by a half-length at the wire – and today there’s a two pound shift in weights in favor of Blowout, for whatever that’s worth. These three are very tough to separate, so in a race we’ll otherwise pass, we’ll include all three in our rolling exotics. 

RACE 10: Post 5:59 ET. Grade: B+ 
Single: 1-Dunbar Road 

Forecast: Dunbar Road was a much-the-best winner of the Mother Goose S.-G2 at Belmont Park in late June and has looked sensational in the morning since for C. Brown. The daughter of Quality Road should absolutely love today’s 10 furlong trip and may be on the verge of super stardom in what will be just her fifth career outing. From her inside draw J. Ortiz can let her run out of the gate and then settle wherever he wants to be. At 8/5 on the morning line – and we hope we can get it – she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 11: Post 6:32 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Sweet Meadow Mist; 5-More Mischief 

Forecast: Sweet Meadow Mist has no early speed but she can turn it on late, and at this extended sprint distance the New York-bred 3-year-old filly could produce the last run with a bit of help up front. J. Rosario knows her well and stays aboard, and at 3-1 on the money line she might offer a bit of value in the win pool as well as in rolling exotic play. More Mischief should be included as well. The C. Brown-trained filly has enough tactical speed to be within striking range throughout, and although she’s a grinder without a true turn of foot the daughter of Into Mischief should have every chance at a trip that compliments her style well.