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Saturday, August 17: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 17, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-two-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-17th-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 4-Paladar; 5-Fawree 

Forecast: The Pacific Classic day opener drew just six runners but this is a stronger-than-par second-level allowance main track miler with contention top to bottom. Fawree is progressing nicely for J. Sadler and earned a career top speed figure when blowing out a starter’s allowance field by six lengths at Los Alamitos in his most recent start last month. The lightly-raced Candy Ride gelding has a good stalking style and should draft into an ideal second flight position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. A sharp, healthy work tab in recent weeks indicates he’s right on edge and ready to produce another forward move. Paladar returns from the Midwest and is another that has looked fit and ready in the morning. The R. Baltas-trained son of Street Cry probably is a need-the-lead type and if he can work out that type of trip he could be hard to run down. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with the edge on top to Fawree. 

RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Seahawk Lisa; 4-Paid Informant; 6-Paid Informant 

Forecast: The second race is an expensive maiden-claimer for juveniles loaded with unknowns and question marks. Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to. Seahawk Lisa has looked pretty good in the morning for J. Hollendorfer, and a noteworthy recent team gate drill certainly makes her dangerous with this group. The daughter of Hard Spun appears to have plenty of speed and was able to match strides with Songbird’s half-sister America’s Surprise in that aforementioned Aug 4. workout, so let’s put her on top for a barn that always does well with debut runners. Paid Informant breezed a quarter mile in 21 seconds at the OBS April sale but then brought only $45,000 at auction, an unusually low price for a daughter of Into Mischief. Maybe she has issues that we’re not aware of, but with F. Prat taking the call for R. Baltas and with a work tab at San Luis Rey Downs that lists several promising drills, she’s certain to get plenty of play. Samurai Charm, a first-timer from the P. Miller barn, appears to have enough talent to be competitive at this level. A recent sharp gate blowout (35 1/5 seconds) should have her right on edge. 

RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Stormy Liberal; 5-Eddie Haskell 

Forecast: Stormy Liberal, away since finishing a strong third in the Al Quoz Sprint-G1 in Dubai in late March, won this race last year and hails from a barn that does very well with comebackers. However, the work tab is light, so we’re wondering if the two-time winner of the BC Turf Sprint-G1 is completely wound up. Probably not. Still, you have to use him, and we will along with Del Mar specialist Eddie Haskell, a winner of six of seven over this course and distance and successful in an overnight race here last month with a career-top speed figure. He’s beaten Stormy Liberal in the past and based on current form may very well do it again. In a race that we have no plans to play, we can double the race in rolling exotic play while slightly preferring Eddie Haskell on top. 

RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Oliver; 7-Santanta 

Forecast: Oliver has shown a liking for the Del Mar main track both last year and this, placing in three stakes, most recently with a career top speed figure when runner-up in the Real Good Deal S. A sharp half mile workout (47 3/5 seconds, third fastest of 90) indicates his improvement is continuing and M. Garcia, who rides him best, stays aboard. Santanta won his debut last month like a good sprinter with potential, and the son of Elusive Warning should be tough right back in this first-level state-bred allowance sprint. The barn has excellent stats with repeat winners, so we’re expecting this 4-year-old gelding to have a strong pace presence and battle hard to the wire. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Oliver on top. 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 4-Fivestar Lynch; 11-Lambeau; 12-Mo Forza 

Forecast: Mo Forza is progressing with experience and may be ready to earn his diploma despite his extreme outside draw in this maiden turf affair over a mile. The son of Uncle Mo, in the money in all three starts to date, earned a career top speed figure when a sharp runner-up vs. similar last month, and if he negotiates a decent trip the P. Miller-trained should be the one to beat. Lambeau has done some good work in the a.m. for J. Shirreffs, and while he may be a down-the-road type the son of First Samurai could easily outrun his odds under M. Smith. An impressive looking 3-year-old, he’s was a $475,000 yearling purchase and hasn’t missed a beat in the a.m. dating back a few months. Fivestar Lynch, in the frame in two of his three career outings in Ireland, shows rapidly rising Timeform ratings and should be a fit on this circuit. He’ll get Lasix and top grass rider F. Geroux, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play. 

RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Smooth Like Strait; 4-Royal Thunder; 5-Hydrogen; 7-Bronn 

Forecast: There are so many first-timer starters that are highly-regarded that this maiden special weight race is almost impossible to decipher. Bronn was beaten at 6/5 in his debut after pressing the pace and then weakening late, but the B. Baffert barn has powerful stats with second-time starters and with the blinkers off angle as well, so we’re fully expecting this son of Conveyance to step forward significantly. Baffert has another starter worth watching, Hydrogen, a $575,000 yearling by Violence from the dam of the once-promising Gettysburg. Johnny V., who rarely rides for this stable, picks up the mount on the colt that has shown enough talent in the a.m. to be given some consideration. The T. Yakteen-trained Royal Thunder shows two recent bullet gate workouts over the Del Mar main track, including a 46 4/5 seconds move on August 2 that was the fastest of 53 for the distance. The son of Mineshaft must have some ability to do that. Smooth Like Strait, from the M. McCarthy barn, has looked quite good in some of his drills, but ordinary in others. The son of Midnight Lute probably will be held up early and allowed to run late under F. Prat and offers a price chance in a wide open affair that certainly requires a spread in rolling exotic play. 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 4-Markie’s Water; 6-The Great Day 

Forecast: Marckie’s Water finished fastest of all but ran out of room when second to Bowie’s Hero in the 9F Eddie Read S.-G2 last month and today gets an extra quarter of a mile to work with in this mini-marathon turf event that appears made to order for the son of Tribal Rule. A winner over this course and distance last year, the R. Baltas-trained veteran should be able to settle in mid-pack and then produce a winning rally when the proper time comes. The Great Day, a multiple Group-1 winner in Argentina, appears to be rounding to top form following a strong runner-up effort in the Arlington H.-G3 in Chicago last month in what was just his second North American outing. On pure numbers he’s a strong fit on this circuit and if he can step forward again the son of Harlan’s Holiday could easily prove best. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while giving a slight edge on top to Marckie’s Water. 

RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 6-Sneaking Out 

Forecast: Sneaking Out was scratched out of a grass stakes last week to wait for this main track graded event and we’re expecting the daughter of Indian Evening to make amends for her recent defeat at 10 cents on the dollar in the Fleet Treat Stakes. In that race the K. Desormeaux-trained 3-year-old filly was forced to race along the deep, treacherous rail and paid the price late, but in the absence of such a blatant bias today she should have no difficulties. A strong runner-up effort, beaten a half-length, in the Summertime Oaks in May shows she can handle two-turns, and with her tactical speed she should be able to secure a good pace-stalking position and then have every chance. She’s a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 9: Post 6:10 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Cambier Parc; 4-Hard Legacy; 11-Lady Prancealot; 14-Hidden Message 

Forecast: The 14-runner Del Mar Oaks probably will be decided by whichever of the half dozen or so legitimate contenders enjoys the best trip. Cambier Parc, a New York shipper from the C. Brown stable, is a double graded stakes winner routing on turf and has won half of her six career starts. She’ll almost certainly benefit from a ground-saving trip from her rail draw and have her chance when it counts from the quarter pole home. Hidden Message is fresh off the plane following a listed stakes win over a mile at Sandown Park, a race that was assigned a Timeform rating of 102, which makes her highly-competitive with the local contingent. The extreme outside 14 post position is hardly ideal, but she has the type of acceleration that can handle traffic and tight turns, and with F. Prat calling the shots the daughter of Scat Daddy will be right there with any kind of decent racing luck. Lady Prancealot can really turn it on as well, as she showed when winning the Honeymoon S.-G3 at Santa Anita in early June. She’s been working steadily since at San Luis Rey Downs for R. Baltas and showed a liking for the local lawn when a strong second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf last year in her U.S. debut. Hard Legacy is a lightly-raced and improving Midwest shipper fresh from a smart victory in the Regret S.-G3 at this nine furlong trip while earning a speed figure that puts her right smack in the hunt with this group. 

RACE 10: Post 6:43 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 8-Campaign 

Forecast: There are a number of possibilities in one of the most wide open Pacific Classics in memory but rather than spread the race let’s just simply try to be right with just one. Campaign has won half of his 10 career starts (including the recent Cougar II H.-G3) and midway through his 4-year-old season he has developed into a genuinely consistent and high-quality dirt stayer. While he might be most comfortable at a mile and one-half, the J. Sadler-trained colt should be able to shorten to 10 furlongs and be equally effective, and over a deep track that we know he can handle the son of Curlin can take the next step and become a Grade-1 winner. R. Bejarano fits him perfectly, so at 6-1 on the morning line let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single. 

RACE 11: Post 7:12 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 7-Betty F 

Forecast: Betty F was competitive in several valuable handicaps in England both this year and last and makes her U.S. debut in a first-level allowance middle distance following a bullet workout of 47 seconds around dogs on turf, the fastest of 22 for the distance. She gets Lasix and good grass rider D. Van Dyke, so we’re expecting the P. Gallagher-trained English-bred filly to out class this field. At 5-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Frankel is a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.