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Sunday, August 18: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 18, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing. 


Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-plays-at-saratoga-on-august-18th-2019/ 
Today’s Bullet Drills: https://www.xbtv.com/video/bullet-drill/preview-of-races-3-6-and-9-at-saratoga-on-august-18th-2019-based-on-works/ 


RACE 1: Post 1:02 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Blessed Halo; 5-Shiraz 

Forecast: The first race has been taken off the turf. Blessed Halo is a first-off-the-claim play for B. Cox (a strong 24% with this angle) but hasn’t been out since December and shows an abbreviated work tab. However, J. Rosario signs on, so we’re going to assume the Kantharos gelding is fit and ready. From the rail, he’s likely to bust out and go. Shiraz shows up in a seller for the first time and may have found his friends. Just 2-for-19 during his career with 11 seconds and thirds, the M. Maker-trained gelding probably is best on the front end but there’s other speed types in here, so he may have to employ stalking tactics, not his strong suit. We’ll use him on a ticket or as a back-up, but that’s all. 
RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 3-Ivy’s College Fund; 6-Clairvoyant Lady; 7-Riot Worthy 

Forecast: Clairvoyant Lady is an intriguing class dropper for Rudy and seems capable of waking up at this level. She was eased and walked off in her most recent start but I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard and so whatever was bothering her probably isn’t anymore. This is her cheapest level ever, and when she’s good she can employ pace-stalking tactics and then kick it in when called upon. Riot Worthy, drawn comfortably outside in this seven furlong main track $16,000 claimer for fillies and mares, makes her third start off a long layoff and it should be her best. She’s always liked the Saratoga main track (never worse than second in three lifetime starts), retains J. Alvarado, and may be capable of wearing down the speed types close him. On the other hand, the fact that she has four wins from 27 career starts and with 17 seconds or thirds indicates that she doesn’t always get there. Ivy’s College Fund has won her last three races from lesser foes and is a first-off-the-claim for R. Diodoro, whose record with this angle is rather impressive (26% with a flat-bet profit). Her chances will increase due to today’s wet surface, and with J. Ortiz staying aboard she’ll probably run just as well today as she has been of late, possibly better. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics; we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Clairvoyant Lady. 
RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Good Shabbos; 7-Sharing 

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be contested at seven furlongs. Sharing tipped her hand with an excellent debut performance sprinting on grass, finishing fastest of all but simply running out of room before galloping out far in front past the wire and into the clubhouse turn. How will she do on a wet track? Hard to say. Her dam was the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf champion Shared Account, but as a daughter of Speightstown she should handle it. Also, the G. Motion barn has excellent stats with second-time starters. Good Shabbos has two solid races under her belt, a pair of runner-up efforts with okay but not great speed figures. If Sharing doesn’t handle the surface switch, ‘Shabbos will be the one to benefit the most. 

RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 3-Pugilist; 4-Madita 

Forecast: European invader Madita has placed in a number of listed and group stakes races in Germany – most recently in early July when she finished well to be a strong third - and has Timeform ratings that indicates that she’s superior to what she’s facing in this first-level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares. She’s been in this country for a few weeks and shows a light work tab, but really doesn’t need much as she was plenty fit upon arrival. With addition of Lasix and with J. Leparoux in the saddle, the the A. Delacour-trained daughter of Soldier Hollow looks well-spotted for a win. Pugilist has won three of her last four races from lesser company and probably will try gate-to-wire-tactics, although she has stalked and won as well. A former modest claimer, the daughter of Get Stormy is vastly improved has has speed figures that make her dangerous. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then press with additional tickets keying Madita on top. 
RACE 5: Post 3:13 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Wedontbelieveher; 4-Quantum Computing 

Forecast: We’ve got the fifth race – a maiden $75,000 claimer for juvenile fillies – down to two main contenders. Wedontbelieveher, haltered for $50,000 out of her debut by A. Quartarolo, pressed the pace and hung on gamely to be second, beaten a half-length, while earning a pretty good number, one that makes her the one to beat despite the class hike. The daughter of Bayern retains M. Franco, shows a nice half-mile breeze since the race and seems best of the known element in a race with five first-time starters. Quantum Computing comes from the C. Brown barn, which wins with 21% of its maiden claiming first-time starters. The stable’s main guy J. Castellano (28%) takes the call and with a work tab from Monmouth Park that indicates she has some talent the daughter of Competitive Edge may be the most dangerous of the fresh faces. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Wedontbelieveher on top. 

RACE 6: Post 3:53 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 6-Mrs. Danvers 

Forecast: Mrs. Danvers ran a winning race in defeat but had to settle for third money after a slow start that cost her valuable early position. She seems sure to improve with that bit of experience behind her, and with J. Rosario staying aboard for Shug, the daughter of Tapit seems sure to improve, especially with an extra-half furlong to work with. The first-timers don’t scare, but at 8/5 on the morning line with the potential to go lower, she’ll probably be too short to play, other than as a no-value rolling exotic single. 

RACE 7: Post 4:28 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Still Krz; 10-Maniacal 

Forecast: The seventh race has been taken off the turf and is a real scramble with the switch in surface and the wet condition of the racetrack. Maniacal is questionable on an off track but does show a highly-rated off-the-turf win in his resume and from his cozy outside post should enjoy a good pace-stalking trip. Still Krz has only one way to go, on the lead, and will take them as far as he can. Freshened since early June, dropping below his claim level, and reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., the veteran gelding is a “must use.” 

RACE 8: Post 5:08 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 10-Hit a Provisional; 13-Righteous Ruby 

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be contested at seven furlongs. Righteous Ruby is comfortably drawn outside and is more than fast enough on figures to beat this field over a wet track that she’s proven she likes (two off-track wins in four starts). Though she was somewhat disappointing under these conditions in the mud last time out, she remains protected by a high-percentage outfit and switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. We’re expecting her best effort today. Hit a Provisional is lightly-raced with improvement in her, though to be honest her off-the-turf maiden win last year was low-rated. Still, she’s reunited with “win rider” M. Franco and figures to be close up throughout with every chance, so we’ll use her. 
RACE 9: Post 5:42 ET. Grade: X 
Use: 1-Pacific Wind; 7-Blue Prize 

Forecast: Blue Prize and Pacific Wind have been facing the best in the division of late and both are dropping into listed stakes competition searching for a confidence-building win. ‘Prize is 4/5 on the morning line while seeking her first win this year; in her most recent start she was third in the Delaware H.-G2 behind Elate last month. First of second in 15 of 20 career outings, the Argentine-bred mare always lays her body down. Pacific Wind looked sharp in a recent workout to indicate she’s ready to produce a forward move in her third 2019 outing. She’s always been a cut the below the real good ones and probably won’t beat Blue Prize if that one runs her race, but we can use on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play as a saver or a back-up. 

RACE 10: Post 6:16 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Sooner Schooner; 5-Take Charge Tina; 9-Moyne Spun 

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be contested at a mile and one-eighth. Take Charge Tina earned a career top speed figure when second in a similar affair last month but that was on turf. Her only career win came in gate-to-wire fashion, so we’re going to assume that front-running strategy will employed. Based on the projected race flow, the daughter of Take Charge Indy can be the controlling speed. Sooner Schooner hails from a high percentage outfit, takes a realistic class drop, and was a nice winner over a wet track at Oaklawn Park three races back to makes her dangerous under these conditions. Moyne Spun has to prove she can handle dirt but she has winning connections and pace-stalking style that should allow for a good trip. We’ll toss her in on a ticket or two.