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Thursday, August 22: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 22, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, August 22, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:Jeff Siegel's Best Bets at Saratoga on August 22nd, 2019

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is a steeplechase event. We will pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 1:22 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Internet of Things

Forecast: Internet of Things is even money on the morning line and thus offers no wagering value, especially when considering the suspicious class drop that clearly indicates he is being culled by the stable. A maiden state-bred winner over a sloppy track last April via disqualification, the C. Brown-trained colt owns a decided edge in speed figures and should have no difficulty handling this nine furlong trip, at least at this level. You can use him as a rolling exotic single, try to beat him, or better yet simply pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Quiet Dignity; 4-Cap de Creus

Forecast: Cap de Creus earned a career top speed figure when missing by a nose in a mini-marathon over this course last month, and this cut back to a mile and three-sixteenths shouldn’t be an issue. On numbers she’s a fit, and the T. Pletcher-trained daughter of Tapit likely has plenty of improvement in her. Quiet Dignity finished steadily against slow fractions to be third in a similar event in her U.S. debut last month and seems likely to produce a forward move for the C. Brown barn, which has powerful stats (26%) with second-off-layoff runners. The lightly-raced daughter of Kitten’s Joy retains I. Ortiz, Jr. and gets an extra furlong to work with today. In a race that projects to have an extremely slow pace, we’ll use both in rolling exotic play with a slight preference on top to Cap de Creus

RACE 4: Post 2:26 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Sargeant Drive; 4-Derby Memories; 5-Grit and Glory

Forecast: This six-runner starter’s allowance main track router is another race that we’ll pass other than to include the logical contenders in rolling exotic play. Derby Memories just won a maiden $20,000 claimer by almost 15 lengths and earned giant speed figure in what was just his third career start. From the high percentage D. Gargan barn, the son of Curlin is protected today and though facing tougher foes seems quite capable of taking this class hike in stride. However, at 6/5 on the morning line there’s no value to be found. Grit and Glory is an intriguing Churchill Downs shipper from the S. Hough barn. He’s steady if unspectacular in the speed figure department and projects to enjoy a soft pace-stalking trip and have every chance to produce a forward move. Sergeant Drive, first off the claim for R. Atras (very strong 25% with this angle) is just 1-for-15 during this career but has numbers that fit and with improvement for his new connections figures in the fray from off the pace.

RACE 5: Post 2:58 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Raggedy Annie; 9-Project Whiskey; 10-Central Capital

Forecast: This maiden-special-weight race for 2-year-olds has been transferred to the main track, shortened to seven furlongs, and is restricted to horses that sold or RNA’d for $45,000 or less in their most recent sale. MTO entrant Project Whiskey is the beneficiary of the change in surface and distance and seems like a logical contender after finishing a decent third with a less-than-ideal trip over sloppy track in her debut last month. She’s a first-time Lasix user and seems likely to improve. Raggedy Annie, a second-timer for the D.W. Lukas barn which sent out a winner yesterday with a similar pattern, has every right to improve as well and also will be adding Lasix. Central Capital closed a bit of ground when well-beaten in her debut and likely will benefit from the experience. She is comfortably drawn outside and is an MTO entrant worth using on a ticket or two.

RACE 6: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Lucky Curlin

Forecast: Lucky Curlin has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern, exits a pair of hot races, shows rising speed figures, and has a pedigree that suggests he’ll improve dramatically over a distance of ground. Drawn comfortably inside, the M. Casse-trained colt has a chance to become a very nice prospect and that development should be in evidence today. However, at 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, he’ll probably not offer a whole lot of wagering value other than as a logical rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 4:02 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 8-Deep Space; 10-Tatterazzi; 13-Nasty Affair

Forecast: This maiden special weight affair for state-bred fillies and mares has been transferred to the main track and shortened to seven furlongs. Tatterazzi didn’t get the best of runs when well-backed (9/2) in her sprint debut and should have a better chance to show her true form today. The J. Terranova barn has good stats with second-time starting maidens so this daughter of The Factor looks like a live item. MTO entrant Nasty Affair broke slowly, raced greenly, then closed some ground in her debut and is another likely to step forward with a race under her belt. The L. Rice barn excels with second-timers and this daughter of Liaison retains I. Ortiz, Jr. Deep Space, a $750,000 daughter of Curlin, was in California with the B. Baffert stable last winter but never started, and to be frank showed next to nothing in the morning before being stopped on. Maybe she’s a better type now, maybe not. In a race that probably requires a significant spread in rolling exotic play, we’ll try to survive and advance going three-deep, but not with a great degree of confidence.

RACE 8: Post 4:34 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Fiery Opal; 5-Storm Prophet

Forecast: Fiery Opal is racing in good form and was sharp when third despite a slow start in a hot recent sprint at Parx. A winner over the Saratoga main track at this nine furlong trip in his previous start, the son of Gemologist switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and appears primed for another top effort. First off a $40,000 claim for R. Atras, Storm Prophet returns to that level in his first outing since mid-June and is properly spotted, but always has been more comfortable finishing second or third than winning (3 victories, 17 seconds and thirds from 28 career starts). It’s possible he’ll improve for his new barn, which is very strong (25%) with the first-off-the-claim angle, but he’s been winless since December of 2017 and simply isn’t one to trust. We’ll use him on a ticket or two in our rolling exotics, but the main punch goes to Fiery Opal.

RACE 9: Post 5:06 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Catch a Bid; 8-New and Improved; 10-Hotsy Totsy

Forecast: Hotsy Totsy makes her U.S. debut for C. Clement in her first outing since finishing an outstanding third (of 27) in the Sandringham Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Yes, as a 3-year-old she was getting a lot of weight in that race, but her career-top Timeform rating of 94, indicates she’s developing smoothly. She’s also a first-time Lasix user with a healthy series of recent works over the Saratoga turf course and gets J. Rosario. The C. Brown barn has two strong contenders, as usual. Catch a Bid won her debut smartly and then was worn down late when edged by subsequent stakes winner Varenka here last month, so this lightly-raced and obviously very talented daughter of Real Solution deservers her favorite’s role at 7/5 on the morning line. Interestingly, she loses J. Castellano (who stays with New and Improved) but won’t be inconvenienced by the switch to I. Ortiz, Jr. Brown’s other starter, New and Improved, won at first asking like a quality filly, rallying strongly against the grain to beat maidens with authority. The number was good and there’s no doubt she’s capable of better. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; we’ll have extra tickets keying Hotsy Totsy on top.

RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Deft; 9-Foti, 13-Final Say

Forecast: The finale has been taken off the turf but remains at nine furlongs. We’ll triple the race but you can spread deeper if you find the need. Deft represents inside speed and will take them as far as he can. His numbers are gradually rising, and with J. Rosario staying aboard the Hard Spun gelding should produce another forward move. Foti, first off the $45,000 claim for P. Serpe, has grass numbers that make him competitive but will be trying the main track for the first time. He’s been trouble-prone so far but if he learns to settle he might be okay. MTO entrant Final Say, a recent $40,000 claim by D. Cannizzo, is a first-time gelding removing blinkers, so there’s a few reasons to expect improvement.