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Thursday, August 22: Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 22, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Thursday, August 22, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on August 22nd, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Swirling; 3-G Q Cowgirl

Forecast: G Q Cowgirl is the best of the speed and Swirling is the best of the closers and the winner of today’s opener, a five furlong grass sprint $40,000 claiming fillies and mares, likely will be one or the other. ‘Cowgirl always is suspect under pressure in the final furlong but catches a pace scenario that should be to her liking while Swirling, fourth in the same race that her main rival just finished third in, will be dangerous in the final furlong if she can avoid traffic trouble from behind. In a race that offers little in the way of wagering value, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass.

RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Unicorn

Forecast: Unicorn ran a winning race when second in a similar affair on grass last month in her first outing since February and if she replicates that performance today in her first try on dirt she should be along in plenty of time. Based in pedigree, she should have no trouble with the main track, but when you’re taking 6/5 (or less) you probably don’t’ want to have to ask that question. You can make her a no-value rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Ber Lifted Up; 4-Staythirstymyamigo

Forecast: Be Lifted Up is stuck on the rail but against this group she might be able to overcome the poor draw. Dropping from $32,000 to $12,500 while seeking her proper level, the J. Bonde-trained daughter of Ministers Wild Cat has a prior win over the Del Mar main track and consistent numbers that are better than par for this level. Staythirstymyamigo, first or second in three of five prior starts over this main track, also is dropping and dangerous following an okay third place effort when facing $20,000 foes last time out. She’ll be doing her best work late. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, but they’re the first two favorites on the morning line, so this is a race we’ll probably not get involved in.

RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Toothless Wonder; 8-Verynsky

Forecast: Toothless Wonder, a class dropper from the R. Hess barn, shows two recent turf sprints vs. much tougher foes that didn’t produce anything but his dirt track races chart rather nicely in this league. Most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the son of Street Boss should get the patient ride he needs from R. Bejarano and looks capable of producing the last run. Verynsky was out of his element two-turning on grass vs. $40,000 claimers last time out but returns to reality today. His win over this main track two races back may be good enough to beat this $20,000 restricted (nw-3) field, so let’s include him in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Toothless Wonder on top.

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Blues Rapper; 8-Lemon King; 9-Fantasy Game

Forecast: Fantasy Game gets the worst of the draw but his runner-up effort at 39-1 over this course and distance in a similar spot earlier this month makes him the one to beat in this maiden two-turner on turf for juveniles. He certainly won’t be that price today. Bred for grass (Boisterous) and with good bug boy Velez staying aboard, the S. Miyadi-trained juvenile can win if he can negotiate a decent trip. Lemon King makes his debut for T. Yakteen following an okay work tab, and as a son of Kitten’s Joy he should be able to show his best stuff first time out going long on the lawn. With F. Prat taking the call, he’s certainly to attract plenty of play. Blues Rappers hasn’t done anything of note in the morning but with Dynaformer on the bottom side of the pedigree it’s conceivable that he’ll outperform his work tab on turf. At 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in somewhere.

RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Qahira

Forecast: Qahira earned a confidence-building allowance win at Los Alamitos last month with an improved speed figure and appears to be rounding back to the form that saw her win her debut so impressively over the Del Mar main track last November. The B. Baffert-trained daughter of Cairo Prince should be comfortably placed on or near the lead through easy early fractions and then have every chance to exert her superiority from there. At 2-1 on the morning line, she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Concise Advice

Forecast: Concise Advice is bred to be very quick (Slew’s Tiznow) and has trained better than her modest workout times would lead you to believe. An $85,000 yearling and a full sister to El Camino Real Derby winner Zakaroff, she debuts for a barn whose first-timers often outrun their modest workout times, and this filly could easily do just that. So at 8-1 on the morning line, she offers a chance at a nice price to close out the day so let’s take a shot and use her as a straight play in rolling exotic single.