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Friday, August 23: Del Mar Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 23, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Plays at Del Mar on August 23rd, 2019 

RACE 1: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Mutineer; 6-Strike That 

Forecast: Mutineer has rising speed figures and should be set to graduate in this six-runner maiden claiming sprint. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding was more than five lengths clear of the others when second last time out and a repeat of that race last month gets him home. Strike That is a fresh face from a sharp outfit and should have every chance from his cozy outside post. He won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive, so we’ll include him on a ticket or two while preferring Mutineer on top. 

RACE 2: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 6-Etching; 8-Archana 

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this modest maiden $20,000 claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. Archana has hit the board in her last five and seems well-spotted to finally break through with a win. The J. Wong-trained filly should be forwardly placed throughout, free of trouble, and then have every chance to grind it out late. Etching drops to her lowest level ever and appears to have found her friends. Away since February but with numbers that are good enough to win, she sports a work tab that should have her fit enough. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass. 

RACE 3: Post 5:00 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Eric the Trojan; 6-Dom the Bomb; 9-Portando 

Forecast: This wide-open turf sprint has several possibilities so you probably should include as many as you can afford to. We’ll go three-deep and hope to survive and advance. Dom the Bomb had every chance in his local debut earlier this month but simply couldn’t seal the deal when worn down late after establishing a clear lead in a similar $40,000 turf claiming sprint. The J. Wong-trained gelding has 16 career wins from 40 career outings so he certainly knows where the wire is, and if he clears early without pressure he could be long gone. Eric the Trojan, always a threat from off the pace, was too little, too late in the same race Dom the Bomb exits and wound up fourth, beaten just over two lengths. From the rail and with the switch to R. Bejarano, the J. Carava-trained gelding should be heard from in the final furlong. Portando, first off a $20,000 claim by M. Rowan, didn’t get the best of runs when a close fourth in an optional state-bred $20,000 sprint last month but with clear sailing today might be dangerous from a stalking position. He’s worth including on your ticket at a price that may be higher than his morning line of 9/2. 

RACE 4: Post 5:30 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Pride’s Gold; 10-First Star 

Forecast: Pride’s Gold returns to her best trip (a mile) and switches to dirt, a surface she’s certainly bred to like (Animal Kingdom from a Medaglia d’Oro mare). She likes to lag and produce a late run, and in a field that should have ample speed signed on the E. Harty-trained import seems capable of producing the last run at 6-1 on the morning line. First Star, a highly-rated debut sprint winner last month, stretches out to a distance she’s bred to handle and is strictly the one to beat, though her extreme outside draw does her no favors. The R. Ellis-trained daughter of First Dude won’t be 27-1 today, that’s for sure. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll press with extra tickets using Pride’s Gold in the straight pool. 

RACE 5: Post 6:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 5-Too Hot for Curlin 

Forecast: State-bred older fillies and mares compete at a mile and one-sixteenth on grass. Too Hot for Curlin probably has the most upside, having started just once when third at odds-on here earlier this month. She ran like she needed the outing but will have no such excuse today. F. Prat, who alone seems to be worth a length or two when riding over this course, stays aboard, so we’ll assume she’ll produce enough of a forward move to graduate from this modest group. The P. D’Amato-trained filly is listed at 5/2 on the morning line but likely will go lower. 

RACE 6: Post 6:30 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Kaydetre; 6-Vibrance 

Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, the restricted Tranquility Lakes Stakes for fillies and mares over a mile on the main track. Vibrance probably was a bit rusty in her first start since December when finishing fourth, beaten just under five lengths, in a tough allowance affair on grass last month but the M. McCarthy-trained filly should be fitter and tougher today and will greatly appreciate the return to dirt. A maiden winner over this track and distance last year and Group-1 placed as a juvenile, the daughter of Violence should step forward today with the switch to F. Prat. Kaydetre was a visually pleasing winner of a first-level allowance dirt miler here last month while earning a career-top number, one that makes her dangerous right back despite the class hike. She has good tactical speed and B. Blanc stays aboard and fits her well. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Vibrance. 

RACE 7: Post 7:00 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Phast Pharoah; 4-Soccer Dad; 6-Strongconstitution 

Forecast: Phast Pharoah flashed good speed for a half before packing it in when facing top prospect Eight Rings in the strongest maiden juvenile sprint in the West so far this year and should find this group much more palatable, especially with the switch to grass and the shortening in trip to five furlongs. From the rail, the son of American Pharoah has only one way to go, on the lead, from start to finish. Soccer Dad and Strongconstitution are two first-time starters with work tabs that makes them dangerous. The former shows a 46 seconds flat gate work at Los Alamitos in June so we’re expecting the son Bayern to come out firing, while ‘Constitution, from the hot D. O’Neill barn, was a $220,000 OBS April sale purchase and previewed impressively in 10 seconds flat. We’ll prefer Phast Pharoah on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.