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Sunday August 25: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 25, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing


Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-25th-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: A- 
Single: 6-Call Your Tomorrow 

Forecast: Call You Tomorrow, scratched yesterday in favor of this more logical spot, was a brave second despite racing along the deeper inside every step of the way in a similar starter’s allowance sprint last month and today had the good fortune of drawing the very favorable outside post. The B. Koriner-trained colt earned a strong, career-top speed figure in that race and nothing more will be needed to get him home in this six-runner event. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 2: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B 
Single: 7-Sweet Connie Girl 

Forecast: Sweet Connie Girl, second off the claim for P. Aguirre, has been a beaten choice in her last pair but we’ll give her one more chance to make amends in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming main track miler. She’s been primarily on turf specialist throughout her career but did run quite well in both of her main track appearances and it would appear that she’s actually more comfortable on dirt than she is on grass. In this moderate event she should be able to settle in mid-pack outside in the favorable lanes and then have every chance to exert her superiority from the quarter pole home. Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 5/2. 

RACE 3: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 5-S Y Sky 

Forecast: S Y Sky just missed when second to Painting Corners in the Daisycutter S. over this course and distance last month but seems capable of turning the tables today. The veteran mare by Grazen may have lost more ground that she was beaten by in that affair and with a slight (3 lbs.) shift in the weights compared to ‘Corners she should be capable of regaining her winning form. At 2-1 on the morning line we’ll make her our third consecutive straight play on the program and a rolling exotic single. 

RACE 4: Post 3:43 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Seesawsam; 7-Govenor Cinch 

Forecast: We’re largely guessing in this maiden claiming sprint for juveniles but the two main contender listed above seem fairly logical for various reasons. If you find the need to go deeper in rolling exotic play, by all means do so. Seesawsam is a first-timer from the P. Miller barn with some okay works at San Luis Rey Downs and seems well-placed for a big effort first crack out of the box. He’ll get plenty of play due to the presence of F. Prat in the saddle. Govenor Cinch hails from a barn that does well with debut runners and this colt is bred to win early. The works are good enough to indicate some ability and it won’t require a world beater to win at this level. 
RACE 5: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Deuce; 3-Torosay; 8-Mountain Spirit 

Forecast: Mountain Spirit launches a comeback for J. Mullins and if he returns as well as he left the first-time gelding should be capable of earning his diploma in this five furlong maiden special weight turf sprint. M. Smith, who rode him in both of his prior starts, stays aboard, and with a sharp recent work tab the son of Point of Entry seems fit and ready. Deuce ran well sprinting on grass at Santa Anita but was well-beaten when tried on dirt here last month. Back on the lawn today, the son of Into Mischief should be able to fire his best shot, which on pure numbers puts him right in the picture with ‘Spirit. Torosay is a first-time starter by Goldencents with a brief but intriguing work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. Two of the four drills earned best-of-morning status so this 3-year-old gelding is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. 

RACE 6: Post 4:44 PT. Grade: B- 
Use:4-Rather Nosy; 6-Stirred; 7-Mongolian Humor; 8-Spend Spend Spend 

Forecast: This is a spread racing in rolling exotic play – we’re using four of the eight starters – but a pass race for win wagering. Rather Nosy missed by a neck in a similar spot here earlier this month while more than four lengths clear of the rest. A repeat of that race probably will be good enough. Spend Spend Spend lands the cozy outside post and drops out of a pair of tougher races. She’s won this condition in the past but she’s eligible for having been entered for the $40,000 tag. On numbers she’s right there with these. Mongolian Humor has the route-to-sprint angle in her chart and, in a sign of confidence, is protected by new trainer V. Cerin, who claimed this daughter of Drosselmeyer for $20,000 out of a winning effort two weeks ago. There’s no reason she can’t be effective from off the pace and A. Cedillo, who was aboard for her victory, rides her back. Stirred, freshened since March, seems to be training well for her return and since she won her debut we know she can fire fresh. She’s a late running sprinter hoping for a rally-wide trip and hot pace to compliment her style. 
RACE 7: Post 5:13 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 3-General Interest 

Forecast: General Interest was highly impressive last month winning a state-bred sprint over this course and distance in his first start in almost two years and just his third career outing. The son of Calimonco raced in traffic early, had plenty to do from the quarter pole home but accelerated when room developed inside the furlong pole to win going away with being asked for his best. He can do the same thing today against open rivals. There should be enough pace to compliment his late running style, so with good racing luck we’re expecting the B. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding to be along in time as a straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 8: Post 5:42 PT. Grade: X 
Single: 3-King Jack 

Forecast: King Jack is unbeaten in two starts and extremely fast on speed figures. The son of Jimmy Creed will be stretching out to a mile for the first time but the added distance shouldn’t bother him in the least. We’re expecting this extremely talented 3-year-old colt to remain perfect while continuing his ascendency in the 3-year-old ranks. However, in a race that has been reduced to four runners and essentially boils down to a match race between ‘Jack and Improbable, there’s really not much we do here. 

RACE 9: Post 6:11 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 2-Grey Lady; 5-Objective; 11-Prance; 12-Coldwater 

Forecast: The Sunday nightcap is a grass grab bag for maiden claiming older fillies and mares. Objective shows up in a seller for the first time and should appreciate the class relief. The D. O’Neill-trained filly stretched out for the first time over this course and distance last month vs. straight maidens and led the way into the lane before weakening. Against this group, and with patient handling, the daughter of Super Saver should be tough to deny. Coldwater gets in from the also-eligible list and is a contender despite her outside draw, having finished in the frame in her last two with numbers that put her in the hunt. Prance is a sneaky first timer from the N. Drysdale barn. Her works aren’t bad, and this barn is more dangerous with debut runners then given credit for. The stable’s “go-to” rider, R. Bejarano, takes the call. Grey Lady, first off the claim for A. Marquez, has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and will be adding blinkers while switching to R. Fuentes. Drawn comfortably inside and with a nice recent work for her new connections, the daughter of Candy Ride has the pedigree to run long and handle grass and could be a nice price in an open fray. Toss her in.