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Wednesday, August 28: Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 28, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Two Plays at Saratoga on August 28th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The first race is a steeplechase. We will pass this race.

RACE 2: Post 1:22 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jump for Joy; 5-Le Weekend

Forecast: Jump for Joy exits a series of much tougher races and finds a logical spot to regain her winning form in this starter optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares. First or second in 12 of 18 career starts, the veteran mare has been freshened for nearly two months and, assuming she leaves cleanly from the rail, should be on or near the lead throughout. Le Weekend returns to the level at which she was claimed earlier this year and though her recent form looks muddled she has earned recent speed figures that make her a major player. She should have enough early speed to be within striking range throughout and have every chance when it matters in the final furlong. We’ll prefer Jump for Joy slightly on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Dynamite Kitten; 6-Classic Lady

Forecast: Dynamite Kitten ran better than the line will show when rallying wide against slow fractions to wind up third in a similar second-level state-bred allowance race on grass, and today from the rail the daughter of Animal Kingdom projects to secure an ideal ground-saving, second-flight trip. She’s reunited with “win rider: J. Alvarado, and with a repeat of her last race should be capable of producing a winning late bid. Classic Lady is dangerous based on speed figures and consistent recent form, having finished no worse that second in her last three outings. Considerably improved since being claimed for $50,000 in January, the daughter of Jimmy Creed likes to settle well off the pace and then kick home from top of the lane to wire. With good racing luck and a decent pace to chase, she’ll be heard from when it counts. We’ll give the slight edge on top to Dynamite Kitten but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 4: Post 2:26 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 4-Indian Pride

Forecast: Indian Pride has been impressing the clockers for more than year and finally makes it to the post in this maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares. The daughter of Proud Citizen has never failed to impress both in team drills and when working alone; in fact she has trained like a top prospect while displaying an immense amount of speed and is finally healthy enough to get her career officially started. She’s 2-1 on the morning and likely will go lower as a short price rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 2:58 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Trixie’s Time; 10-O’Malley; 12-Decorated Ace

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for $40,000 claiming fillies and mares that requires a deep spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll pass the race while going three-deep in our rolling exotics. Decorated Ace looks the best on paper but is stuck on the far outside and may have difficulty navigating a decent trip. She drops a notch to her winning level, switches to J. Castellano, and has numbers that are good enough to win, so you have to use her even though she probably won’t offer much value at 5/2 on the morning line. Trixie’s Time has the always-dangerous blinkers off angle going for her and a favorable inside post, so it won’t be surprising if the M. Miceli-trained filly outruns her morning line of 15-1. She’s not fast on speed figures, which justifies her long shot status, but if granted an easy early lead she could take this field a very long way. O’Malley is a Presque Isle Downs invader with form that makes her a fit. The lightly-raced daughter of More Than Ready has an improving pattern and a prior win on grass. Also, she makes her first start since joining the M. Maker barn and lands J. Ortiz, so there are reasons to expect another forward move.

RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: A-
Single: 3-Moonachie

Forecast: Moonachie brought $85,000 in the Timonium May sale after previewing impressively and has since trained like a win-early type leading up to his Saratoga debut for J. Engelhart, who hits at a strong 22% with debut runners. Bred to be quick and giving every indication in the morning like he’s loaded with speed, the son of Central Banker seems more than capable of handling this state-bred field of 2-year-olds and will offer excellent wagering value if he leaves at or near his morning line of 4-1. Let’s make him a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Logic N Reason; 3-Morality Clause; 5-Jazzique; 6-Selflessly

Forecast: Here’s a wide-open maiden special weight turf sprint for juvenile fillies that has many x-factors and question marks and is borderline inscrutable. Use has many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Logic N Reason debuts for the always-dangerous C. Clement/J Rosario team and as a daughter of Declaration of War seems certain to enjoy turf. The works are good enough to win a race like this, so in what amounts to nothing more than an educated guess we’ll put her on top. Selflessly has looked okay in the morning and is another bred to handle grass (More Than Ready. She’s 8-1 on the morning line and may be a bit better than that. Her C. Brown-trained stable mate Jazzique also has shown some ability in the a.m., and while we doubt she’s one of the barn’s better 2-year-olds she could be good enough to be a threat in this moderate affair The Irish-bred daughter of Kingman has a nice gate work (47 1/5 seconds) that was third fastest of 108, so on the basis of that she’ll probably get plenty of play. Morality Clause has the benefit of three prior runs, and while she’s not fast on speed figures she has managed to hit the board in three outings. A good filly will beat her, but there may or may not be one in here.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Dark Money

Forecast: This starter’s allowance sprint doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed signed on, and that’s good news for the connections of Dark Money. He’s now in the R. Rodriguez barn after trouncing a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 field by five lengths with a career top speed figure in late June and returns protected for a stable that hits at 28% with a flat-bet profit with the first-off-the-claim angle. Though not blazingly quick himself, the son of Central Banker looks like the best of the speed types, and if runs back to his last race he’ll be tough catch. At 8/5 on the morning line we’ll make him a rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Our Country

Forecast: Our Country was given a race in his debut and then exploded to beat maidens by almost six lengths in a visually impressive performance earlier this month. The son of Constitution will be hard to deny in today’s With Anticipation Stakes if runs back to that race today, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t. The colt that we thought might give him a serious run – Eagerly – has been scratched, leaving us with the G. Weaver-trained son of Constitution as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Winifred J; 6-Mike’s Girl

Forecast: The finale is a messy maiden-claiming turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. We’ll try to get by using just two, but you may find the need to spread considerably deeper. Mike’s Girl and Winifred J finished two-three in a similar event last month and both should fire similar shots today. Winifred J, first-off-the-claim for J. Engelhart, switches to J. Ortiz and is likely to produce a forward move after earning a career top speed figure in her most recent outing while Mike’s Girl, a nine-race maiden but in the frame in her last three starts, should flash considerably more early speed today. If she can shake loose early she may never look back. Of the two, we’ll slightly prefer Winifred J on top.