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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies for 8/29/19

by Jeff Siegel

August 29, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Thursday, August 29, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Top Two Plays at Saratoga on August 29th, 2019

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 5-Irish Danzing

Forecast: Irish Danzing has been training steadily without manufacturing any fancy times for C. Clement but the daughter of Danza doesn’t have to advertise her early speed. She did that last April at the OBS sale where she breezed a quarter in 21 seconds flat, fastest time for the distance during the entire preview session. Though doing most of her preparatory work at Belmont Park, she vanned up a couple of weeks ago to get a feel of the Saratoga main track and debuts in a state-bred maiden special weight juvenile filly dash that is begging to be won a by a fresh face. At 4-1 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Cross Border; 9-Gambler’s Fallacy

Forecast: Cross Border is a thoroughly genuine and consistent turf performer seeking his third straight score in this second-level allowance/optional claimer for New York-bred older horses. The veteran son of English Channel is solid in the speed figure department, perfect (2-for-2) over the Saratoga turf course and has the kind of tactical speed that always puts him the proper spot and keeps him from harm’s way. At 8/5 on the morning line he’s a logical top pick, though we’ll also include in our rolling exotics Gambler’s Fallacy, a closing second when last seen in late June in his first start of the year for C. Brown and likely to produce a forward move today while being reunited with “win rider” J. Castellano. The son of Violence is a fit on numbers, has further improvement in him, and should be doing his best work from off the pace.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Camorra; 7-Golden Vale

Forecast: Camorra nosedives in class and clearly is being culled by the stable, what with the September yearling sales just around the corner. The daughter of Street Boss never lived up to expectations and likely never will, but in this $20,000 claimer the T. Pletcher-trained filly should win at a short price, assuming she has one good one left in her. Golden Vale, first off the claim for low profile connections, is raised in class despite being away since mid-June in a sign of confidence and shows the always-dangerous blinkers off angle. Drawn comfortably outside, she’s short of where she needs to be in the speed figure department but with a forward move off her brief vacation she might be able to make a race of it.

RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Seven Gems; 5-Tenure

Forecast: Seven Gems always has been suspect under pressure in the final furlong and will be again today in his first outing since shipping up from Gulfstream Park. The S. Klesaris-trained gelding may stick better with this turn back to an abbreviated sprint, and it was at this distance on grass that he was last won a race more than a year ago at Laurel Park. He’s got only one way to go, on the lead for as long as he can carry his speed. Tenure also is a fast sort but he’s drawn outside ‘Gem and probably will employ pace-pressing tactics. The lightly-raced gelding has rising numbers plus winning form sprinting on grass, and with J. Rosario staying aboard for C. Clement the son of Uncle Mo should have every chance to stalk, pounce, and draw clear late. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Tenure on top.

RACE 5: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Business Cycle; 2-Bronxville

Forecast: Business Cycle, freshened since early June, drops into a claimer for the first time and is even money on the morning line in this soft restricted (nw-2) $16,000 event. Now 6-years-old and clearly no longer in the stable’s plans, the son of Curlin is reunited with “win rider” J. Castellano and should outclass this modest field, with his rail post the only real concern. If ‘Cycle no longer has it in him, Bronxville will probably be the one to benefit the most. A maiden $30,000 winner two races back with a speed figure that wasn’t strong but looks good against the rest of this group, the R. Handal-trained gelding probably will employ gate-to-wire tactics in a race without too much early speed.

RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: X
Single: 7-Lead Guitar

Forecast: Lead Guitar produced a significant forward move when missing by head while more than three lengths clear of the rest over this course and distance earlier this month and off that race she’s listed at even money on the morning line in this maiden special weight turf sprint for state-bred fillies and mares. She has upside the others don’t and yet probably doesn’t even need to improve to win. We’ll pass the race other than to make the daughter of Maclean’s Music a no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 8-Saratoga Beauty; 11-Critical Value

Forecast: Saratoga Beauty was well-meant in her debut but broke slowly, lost position, then made a mid-race move to be within range before understandably flattening out. The daughter of Macho Uno has since recorded a sharp bullet gate drill (three furlongs in 35 3/5 seconds, fastest of six) at her home base at Monmouth Park and ships back to the Spa (along with the barn’s go-to rider P. Lopez) for another crack at a similar maiden state-bred juvenile filly field. If she leaves with her field today for the P. McBurney barn (strong stats with second-time starters) she can certainly make amends. Critical Value had the good fortune of drawing in from the also-eligible list and is the likely choice and one to beat. Nosed out in her debut after a slow start and a wide trip, the daughter of Bodemeister has the benefit of the comfortable outside post position and should have clear sailing and every chance.

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Ray’swarrior; 5-Mr. Dougie Fresh

Forecast: We’ve got this starter optional claiming sprint down to two main contenders, both from the J. Servis barn and both shipping in from Monmouth Park. Ray’swarrior just won a listed stakes impressively with a powerful speed figure, and if he runs back to that performance today he’ll be hard to catch once again. He’s dyed-in-the-wool front runner and should be quick enough to secure his preferred trip again today. Stable mate Mr. Dougie Fresh is fast on speed figures as well, but not as quick leaving the gate, and will be doing his best work from slightly off the pace. He’s also – at least based on form – more effective on dirt than he is on grass. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics while pressing with Ray’swarrior on top.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Crystalle; 7-English Breeze; 8-Sweet Melania

Forecast: The bottom three fillies in this year’s edition of the P. G. Johnson Stakes should get the bulk of the action in this middle distance turf event for juvenile fillies. English Breeze won at first asking like a very nice grass prospect and looks tough right back, though this field is considerably more challenging that the state-bred group she just handled. Crystalle also crossed the wire first in her debut but lost the purse for causing interference in deep stretch, eventually being put back to third. Even though she’s still a maiden, the daughter of Palace Malice is faster on numbers than English Breeze and picks up J. Rosario, so she’s certain to attract plenty of play. Sweet Melania gets the worst of the draw but has a bit more experience than the other two and won a nice maiden race over the Saratoga lawn that already has been franked by the runner-up, who came back to win. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to English Breeze.

RACE 10: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Eighty Seven North; 7-Fusi; 13-Ideational

Forecast: Eighty Seven North just finished second at this level despite a rugged start and with better racing luck today the daughter of Quality Road should be able to produce the last run in this maiden $40,000 maiden claiming middle distance turf event for fillies and mares. She switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. and shows speed figures that aren’t fast but at least are gradually rising. Fusi, claimed in her last pair and now in the R. Atras stable, stretches out for the first time and has a closing style that should be effective at this one mile turf. She’s only had three starts and therefore has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. Ideational gets in from the also-eligible list and is worth including in her first start since finishing a close fifth in her debut last November. This appears to be a realistic spot for the Noble Mission filly, who clearly isn’t highly regarded by the C. Brown barn but won’t have to be a world beater to be competitive at this level.