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Friday, August 30: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 30, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-two-plays-at-saratoga-on-august-30th-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 5-Luna’s in Charge; 8-Freaky Styley 

Forecast: Freaky Styley closed a world of ground after a slow start in his debut last month and seems certain to step forward today from a cozy outside post and with J. Rosario staying aboard for a barn that does very well with second-time starters. The son of Scat Daddy has trained steadily that race and, assuming he leaves cleanly this time, shouldn’t have any excuses. Luna’s in Charge has rising speed figures and dangerous early speed in a race that doesn’t project to have a quick opening quarter or half. With another forward move and a soft pace-pressing trip, the Take Charge Indy gelding should be prominent every step of the way. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Freaky Styley. 

RACE 2: Post 1:34 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Peter’s Project; 4-Cowboy Rhythm 

Forecast: Old pro Peter’s Project is a Finger Lakes shipper in good form with speed figures that fit nicely on the Big Track at this level. The 9-year-old gelding has 18 career wins on his resume and should be forwardly placed throughout in a race that won’t likely produce a fast early pace. The one to fear most is the 8/5 morning line favorite, Cowboy Rhythm, a huge class-dropper from the high-percentage R. Diodoro stable. The Tapit gelding has never raced this cheaply but this stable always is very aggressive with its claiming stock so this is not necessary a suspicious pattern. However, the 7-year-old hasn’t won a race in a couple of years and may not be one to trust. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics but this is not a race we’re planning on getting too involved in. 

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-Wicked Grin; 3-Clear the Ramp; 4-Wild William 

Forecast: This turf sprint for state-bred older horses has a number of maiden-to-maiden claiming droppers to consider, so we’ll spread the race without any great conviction. Wicked Grin, freshened since early June, shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. He ran well over this course and distance as a 2-year-old and his recent speed figures, earned when facing tougher foes, makes him a strong fit at this level. Clear the Ramp, in his third start off a layoff and his first in a seller, earned a buried number two races back that despite finishing a well-beaten seventh makes him a fit with these. This will be his first try on grass, and as a son of Big Brown he has a right to like it. Wild William has a race two back that charts well with these, though he’s always been trouble prone and never one to count on. We’ll throw him in on a ticket or two, but that’s it. 
RACE 4: Post 2:38 ET. Grade: B- 
Use: 1-Wonderful Light; 5-Vici 

Forecast: Wonderful Light ships in from Laurel following a sharp score in an optional claimer that earned a solid speed figure, one that makes him the one to beat right back even on this tougher circuit. First or second in seven of 10 career starts, the lightly-raced 5-year-old picks up Johnny V. and, assuming he breaks cleanly from the rail, should be prominent throughout and have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Vici shows good recent grass form but has run well in the few off-the-turf races on fast ground that he’s competed in, so we’ll make him a major player as well. Fast on speed figure but never known to have a winning spirit (he’s 4-for-36 lifetime with 18 seconds and thirds), the son of War Point figures in the fray but isn’t necessarily one to trust. We’ll use him as saver in our rolling exotics while preferring Wonderful Light on top. 
RACE 5: Post 3:10 ET. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Dream Passage; 4-Arch of Troy 

Forecast: Dream Passage is sharp and consistent and although beaten as the favorite when runner-up over this course and distance earlier this month looks capable of making amends from her good inside draw. The B. Cox-trained mare does her best running on the lead and seems likely to employ gate-to-wire strategy under J. Rosario. She’s been first or second in three of four career starts over the Saratoga lawn but at 7/5 on the morning line probably won’t offer much wagering value. Arch of Troy, a $35,000 claim last winter in Florida, was overmatched when facing Grade 3 company at Parx in early June but has been freshened since then and fits much better at this level. The J. Servis-trained mare has run well over the Saratoga grass course in the past, gets I. Ortiz, Jr., and can be tough on or near the lead or from farther back if the pace flow dictates. Preference on top goes to Dream Passage, but both should be included in rolling exotic play. 
RACE 6: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 4-Freewheeler; 7-True Grace; 8-First Deputy 

Forecast: There are several legitimate possibilities in this intriguing turf sprint for state-bred juveniles. True Grace, 6-1 on the morning line, is wheeled back quickly by C. Clement after drawing the rail and encountering a rough trip in a main track sprint just seven days ago. The son of Competitive Edge was shuffled back along the rail in the early stages and lost valuable position but then took hold in the final furlong and finished better than the line will show when sixth, beaten just under seven lengths, before galloping out strongly. Rosario stays aboard the homebred colt, who almost certainly will produce a significant forward move with the switch to grass. First Deputy displayed promise when a nosed out under these conditions a couple of weeks ago and the L. Rice barn has terrific stats with second-time starters. The son of Awesome Again is the likely choice and one to beat. Freewheeler brought $430,000 at the Fasig-Tipton March sale, where he previewed in 10 1/5 and did it easily and without any need of encouragement. Locally, he’s hasn’t been quite as impressive in the morning, most recently showing a tendency to lug out in a gate drill while appearing a bit green. However, as a son of City Zip, he should love the turf, so you probably should toss him in somewhere. 
RACE 7: Post 4:14 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 6-Hallajoori; 10-Remain Anonymous 

Forecast: This maiden juvenile filly main track sprint is a complete raffle. You could make reasonable case for half the field or more. We’ll use two, but feel free to spread as deeply as your budget allows. We know next to nothing about the Maryland shipper Remain Anonymous other that she lands J. Rosario and probably wouldn’t be here if her connections didn’t think she could fit on this circuit. She should have speed (Tapiture) and she’s comfortably drawn outside for a capable trainer with maidens, so at 15-1 on the morning line why not take a flyer? Hallajoori is a second time starter from the S. Asmussen barn (a strong 21% with this angle) and adds Lasix after flashing good speed and then weakening to finish third, beaten more than six lengths in her debut. She has a right to be fitter and stronger today and maybe the best of the known element. 

RACE 8: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 2-A Little Faith; 7-Niko’s Dream; 9-Chiclet’s Dream 

Forecast: Niko’s Dream finished second in two recent New York Stallion stakes races but remains eligible to the first condition so that’s where she shows up today while seeking a confidence building win for the B. Tagg barn. The daughter of Central Banker probably is most effective when held up and allowed to produce a late kick and given that type of ride today she may be capable of wearing down the leaders late. Chiclet’s Dream is drawn farther out than we’d prefer but she’s a fit on speed figures and is overdue for another win following three in-the-frame finishes, the last two as a short priced favorite. A Little Faith, with just two starts under her belt, has room to improve, and as a daughter of Candy Ride has every right to do just that. Truthfully, any one of the three could win and they’re very difficult to separate. Tread lightly here.

RACE 9: Post 5:18 ET. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Tour de Force; 2-Supreme Aura 

Forecast: Tour de Force stopped badly in the Alydar Stakes earlier this month after making the running while setting quick fractions. Today he removes blinkers, shows up where he belongs in a $50,000 claimer, and should snap back to good form if he can draft into a second flight, pace-stalking position. Supreme Aura is a first-time gelding and also is dropping into a seller for the first time. Additionally, he picks up J. Rosario, so the stakes-winning son of Candy Ride looks well-meant from the M. Stidham barn. We don’t see a lot of wagering value here, so other than doubling the race in rolling exotic play this might be a race that is best left alone. 
RACE 10: Post 5:50 ET. Grade: X 
Single: 3-Disco Partner 

Forecast: The projected contested pace in this five and one-half furlong turf stakes should set up nicely for Disco Partner. However, the high-class veteran, who always preferred the Belmont Park turf course to the one at Saratoga, couldn’t take advantage of a dream run in the recent Troy S.-G3 and finished second in a race that he didn’t appear he could lose at the furlong pole. Perhaps at age seven and with 31 hard races behind him, the son of Disco Rico has lost a step or two. He still has to be respective and seems a most likely winner in this below average added money event, but at what probably will be a very short price he really won’t be offering any wagering value. We can use him as a rolling exotic single, but better yet simply pass the race. 

RACE 11: Post 6:22 ET. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Tempers Way; 4-Awesome Alana; 6-Flush 

Forecast: Awesome Alana vans in from Monmouth Park where she has been training steadily for her first start since last December, and the C. Brown-trained filly could easily be better type now that she was last year. This will be her first try on grass; who knows, maybe she’ll like it. She’s intriguing at 8-1 on the morning line and is worth a gamble at that price. Tempers Way had every chance when worn down in the final strides in a $40,000 claimer over this course and distance last month but in doing so earned a career top speed figure and returns protected today in a state-bred first-level allowance affair for fillies and mares. From her inside draw, the daughter of Giant’s Causeway has only one way to go,, on the front end for as long as she can. Flush was a tad disappointing when third in a similar event over nine furlongs in mid-July but she’s probably capable of better while shortening up a furlong to a flat mile. Three nice recent workouts indicates she’s doing well. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press keying Awesome Alana on extra tickets and in the straight pool as well.