Log In

Friday, August 30: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 30, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-top-two-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-30th-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 6-He’s Like Violence; 7-Aussie Fox; 9-Chosen Vessel 

Forecast: In his second start off a long layoff, He’s Like Violence makes a pivotal jockey switch to F. Prat after earning a career top speed figure when crossing the wire second but then being disqualified back to fifth in a slightly softer spot earlier this month. The lightly-raced gelding is eligible to produce a forward move after pressing the pace and hanging on gamely in that race, and in a field without much pace might be able to establish the running without undue pressure. Aussie Fox finished a willing fourth in the same race He’s Like Violence exits and though winless in six career starts over the local lawn has hit the board on five occasions. He should be heard from late. Chosen Vessel gets the worst of the draw but exits a series of tougher starter’s allowance races and has numbers that are competitive. The English Channel gelding has a chance to get over and secure a good pace-prompting position and given that type of trip should have every chance from the quarter pole home. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying He’s Like Violence on top. 

RACE 2: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Alicia’s Pride; 4-Rolinga 

Forecast: Alicia’s Pride was tried in straight maiden company in her debut last month going long on the lawn, and while she was never a factor at a big price it was encouraging that she was a least given a chance. She drops to the bottom today, switches to dirt, shortens to a sprint, and gets weight off with the presence of good bug boy J. Velez in the saddle. If she can run, this would be a good place to show it. Rolinga is winless in her first 12 starts but at least she’s been In the money in three of her last four. She’s a contender by default 
RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 1-Absolutely Perfect; 3-Sunrise Royale 

Forecast: Absolute Perfect returns following a nine month layoff and her works indicate the daughter of Vronsky is fit and ready. The main concern is that the D. Blacker-trained filly might be using this race as a prep for a stretch out, similar to the pattern she produced last year, and the barn’s record with comebackers isn’t strong. However, even though this five furlong trip might be a tad sharp for her liking, she appears fast enough on pure speed figures to outclass this first-level allowance field, and with a good ground-saving trip seems capable of tagging the speed. Sunrise Royale has been a miler most of her career and is turning back to an abbreviated sprint, but she does like this turf course (both of her victories came here) and with some help up front could make some noise in the final furlong. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Absolutely Perfect on top. 
RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 3-Summer Fire; 7-Lightning Fast; 10-Rebel Fire 

Forecast: Summer Fire has a very good race over this track that should make him hard to beat in this maiden special weight juvenile state-bred sprint unless one of the newcomers is better than expected. The son of Creative Cause missed by less than a length over this track and distance earlier this month while nearly three lengths clear of the rest and earned a decent speed figure, one that should be improved upon with that bit of experience behind him. The Hess, Jr. barn is solid with second-time starters and hot riding A. Cedillo stays aboard, so we’ll put him on top while also including in our rolling exotics a couple of intriguing first-time starters. Rebel Fire shows a healthy work tab for P. Eurton and should be more than fit enough to produce a good effort, especially from the cozy outside post position, while Lightning Fast, from the clever B. Spawr barn, is a nicely-bred son of Violence with a couple of recent solid gate drills that catch the eye. 
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 2-Great Return; 6-Excellent Sunset 

Forecast: Excellent Sunset was a strong runner-up in the Frankel S.-G3 when last seen in late December and if she returns as well as she left – and with the scratching of our original top pick Ficanas - the Irish-bred mare will be the one to beat in this second-level allowance turf mile assignment. Her recent works are impressive and give every indication that she’s fit and ready. R. Bejarano knows her well and stays aboard. Great Return is progressing nicely as she gains experience, and the lightly-raced daughter of Exchange Rate may be capable of building on her recent entry-level allowance victory over this course and distance while moving up a notch on the class ladder. She has good tactical speed and lands a favorable inside draw, so D. Van Dyke can draft into an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip and have every chance when the pressure is turned on. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Excellent Sunset on top. 

RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Phantom Boss; 10-Tap Back 

Forecast: Tap Back won his debut in clever fashion two weeks ago and is wheeled back quickly in this state-bred sprint stakes for juveniles. He’s a fit on speed figures and is bred to improve with distance and experience, so we’re going to assume he will move forward, not backward, despite the relatively quick turnaround. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Einstein retains V. Espinoza and should be part of the pace throughout. Phantom Boss shipped to Churchill Downs to win the Bashford Manor S.-G3 at Churchill Downs in late June after a pair of promising runs at Santa Anita in the spring. He returns for J. Periban with an uninspiring series of recent works but on pure numbers he’s a major contender and will be the likely, though possibly vulnerable, race favorite. 
RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 8-Georgian Road; 10-Test the Water 

Forecast: Georgian Road was a $100,000 OBS April sale purchase but isn’t been culled by the stable after just one start. The son of Quality Road had speed but not much stick, though at this level he could get brave. Test the Water finished fourth in a maiden $80,000 claimer in his debut last month after a slow start and is also dropping drastically to the maiden $32,000 ranks. The son of Mark Valeski brought only $5,000 at auction and failed to change leads in his first start in what was a slow race for the level, so his connections are simply being realistic. Improvement certainly is possible, though, as indicated by two recent bullet workouts, including a 46 3/5 seconds gate drill just five days ago. We have little confidence in either but suspect the winner will be one or the other. Tread lightly here.