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Saturday, August 31: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Xpressbet

August 31, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/Jeff-Siegel/jeff-siegels-top-two-plays-at-del-mar-on-august-31st-2019/ 

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 3-Distinctive B; 5-Spokane Eagle 

Forecast: Distinctive B had a right to be a bit short when second as the favorite in his first start since March earlier this month but should be fitter and tighter today in this $40,000 claiming sprint for older horses. F. Prat stays aboard and should have this veteran gelding on or near the lead in a field that doesn’t have a whole lot of early zip in it. Spokane Eagle, very popular at the claiming box throughout his career and now in the J. Mullins barn, looked sharp winning a productive $32,000 affair last month while earning a speed figure that makes him a strong fit on the one-level raise. A. Delgadillo, who knows him well, stays aboard the Speightstown gelding who should be in a good stalking spot outside, just as he was in most recent win. These two are tough to separate but since he’s exiting a tougher race we’ll put Distinctive B on top while using both in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 2: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: A- 
Single: 8-Justinian 

Forecast: Justinian was a $275,000 Timonium 2-year-old in training purchase in the spring of 2018 and finally makes it to the post 15 months later. The B. Baffert-trained colt has done some excellent work in the a.m. to be fit and ready for this maiden special weight sprint for a barn that hits an almost unheard of 45% with debut runners. The son of Justin Phillips recently stayed even in a workout with Mucho Gusto, who since went on to finish third in the Travers S.-G1, so compared with that multi-stakes winner these maidens should be easy pickings. As the lukewarm morning line favorite of 7/2 – and we suspect he’ll go lower – he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single. 
RACE 3: Post 3:08 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 1-Fantasy Heat; 7-Miss Hot Legs; 3-First Screening 

Forecast: Fantasy Heat is improving with racing and recently earned a career-top speed figure when winning a first-level state-bred allowance affair over this course and distance. She’s tackling open foes today, but we suspect the daughter of Unusual Heat has further improvement in her and from the rail she projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from a stalking position. Miss Hot Legs, a beaten favorite in her last pair but landing in the frame in both while running well, should be in the fray again and have every chance from a pace-pressing position. First Screening, third in the same race ‘Legs exits, projects to be part of the pace again and at 10-1 on the morning line seems worth including at least on a ticket or two as a saver. 
RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 4-I Belong to Becky; 8-Outlaw 

Forecast: Outlaw lands the cozy outside post (again) and should appreciate this shortened trip to five and one-half furlongs. The V. Belvoir-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure when a distant second in a fast, highly rated race for this level last time out and not much more will be needed to outrun this modest restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming field. I Belong to Becky will be part of the pace throughout, and in a field lacking in closers should stick around for a while. Winless this year and always susceptible in the final furlong, he probably has to clear this field to have his best chance. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Outlaw 
RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 7-Crystal Tribe; 8-Eagle Song; 10-Ocean Fury 

Forecast: This competitive first-level middle distance turf affair has several legitimate contenders, requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll use three and hope that’s enough. Top billing goes to Eagle Song, winless around two turns but with rising speed figures and a sharp sprint tightener under his belt. The son of No Nay Never switches to M. Smith and might have his best chance if held up early and allowed to run late. At 6-1 on the morning line the M. Glatt-trained colt may be worth a gamble. Crystal Tribe won a pair of minor handicaps in England earlier this year and arrives in good form right off the plane for J. Mullins. His form is hard to classify but there’s no doubt he was facing considerably inferior company to what he’s seeing today. Still, we give him a chance as a first-time Lasix user carrying considerably less weight than he’s used to, and with good turf rider D. Van Dyke aboard he’s certain to get the patient ride he appears to want. Ocean Fury won a starter’s allowance race in good style last month with a career-top speed figure and did so with a nice pace-stalking trip. With a similar journey today, the son of Stormy Atlantic can at least outrun his morning line of 6-1 and maybe do even better than that. 

RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 6-Fait Accompli; 11-Castle Gate 

Forecast: Castle Gate, drawn comfortably outside while plummeting in class from straight maiden to maiden $20,000 claiming, makes his first start over conventional dirt and appears to have the kind of tactical speed to be wherever R. Fuentes wants him. A strong fit on numbers, the son of Point of Entry should be able to win at this level with anything close to his best turf or all-weather form. Fait Accompli, in the money in his last pair but a beaten choice when third vs. similar in his first start for G. Stute, looks very much like a major player again. The son of Flat Out should be on or near the lead throughout and in a shallow field might be able to stick it out. 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 1-Vasilika; 4-Toinette 

Forecast: Vasilika is re-united with regular pilot F. Prat and seems well-spotted from the rail to regain her winning form in the John C. Mabee S.-G2, a race she captured last year. The veteran daughter of Skipshot rarely loses around these parts and actually ran a winning race when settling for a close third (beaten a half-length by Beau Recall) in the Yellow Ribbon H.-G2 earlier this month. She can bounce back today and is the logical top pick. In her first start since last October, Toinette returned in winning form with a clever overnight and seems likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind. She’s the one Vasilika will have to worry about. 
RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 3-Backshot; 5-American Theorem; 6-Hydrogen; 8-Whirl Candy 

Forecast: Backshot is a very fast first-timer from the B. Baffert barn making his debut in a hot maiden sprint that showcases several well-regarded juveniles in the five and one-half furlong sprint. The son of Tapiture sizzled in the preview session of the June Santa Anita 2-year-old in training sale, breezing a quarter in 21 1/5 seconds, by far the fastest clocking at the distance, and has done everything right since, including a five furlong bullet drill in 1:00 1/5 seconds 10 days ago. If he breaks with his field, the others may not know which way he went. Baffert’s other entrant, Hydrogen, has the benefit of an excellent prior run over the track, having finished second with a strong number two weeks ago. This is a relatively quick turnaround for a barn that doesn’t do this very often, so we assume the the son of Violence came out of the race in good order and is doing well. American Theorem, a first-timer by American Pharoah, has looked good in several workouts and should be plenty fit, though this barn doesn’t often win with debut runners. Whirl Candy is another that appears to have plenty of talent to go along with winning connections (Prat/Baltas) and is comfortably drawn outside. We’ll include all four in our rolling exotics and then come back and press strongly with extra tickets keying Backshot on top. 
RACE 9: Post 6:14 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-Bast; 7-Inspiressa 

Forecast: This is a deep and contentious edition of the Del Mar Debutante-G1 for juvenile fillies. Inspiressa was arguably the most impressive debut winner of the Del Mar season and should be tough right back following a pair of sharp drills since that win Aug. 11, including a bullet three furlong drill nine days later followed by an equally sharp five furlong move in 1:01 seconds six days after that. The J. Sadler-trained daughter of The Big Beast should be as quick leaving the gate as anything in here, and also should have no difficulty carrying her speed seven furlongs. Bast, who was second to Inspiressa in that race and enters the Debutante as a maiden, was late changing leads in the race but stayed on nicely and today will be equipped with blinkers. The B. Baffert-trained daughter of Uncle Mo will be especially dangerous if she breaks well, something she did not do in her first outing. There are others in here that have credentials to win, but we’ll try to get by in our rolling exotics using just these two. 

RACE 10: Post 6:43 PT. Grade: B 
Single: 10-Fravel 

Forecast: Fravel was well-meant in his debut in a similar state-bred maiden special weight turf affair three weeks ago, but after looming a threat into the lane, lost some of his punch late and wound up fourth, beaten three lengths. The son of Unusual Heat should be a lot fitter and tighter today, so with F. Prat staying aboard for a barn that has strong stats with second-timers the R. Mandella-trained colt should be set to show us his best stuff. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.