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Sunday, September 01: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

September 1, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. 
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level. 

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence. 
Grade B=Solid Play. 
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass. 
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value. 
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing

Today’s Day Makers: https://www.xbtv.com/video/day-makers/jeff-siegels-day-makers-at-del-mar-on-september-1st-2019/

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 2-Riding With Dino; 3-I Want One 

Forecast: Riding With Dino crushed a maiden $50,000 claiming field last month with a much improved speed figure and has all the makings of an excellent R. Hess, Jr. claim. Protected in this starter’s allowance sprint in his first start for his new connections, the son of Vronsky retains M. Pedroza and wins this with a repeat of last start. He’s 5/2 on the morning line and we suspect he’ll go lower. I Want One, a filly facing the boys, won a maiden special weight state-bred sprint last time out but is eligible to this race for having finished second for $50,000 in her debut. She’s not quite as fast on numbers as ‘Dino but could produce a sufficient forward move to give the favorite a run for his money. Both should be included in rolling exotic play. 
RACE 2: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+ 
Use: 1-Mad At Money; 5-Blue Skye Jade; 8-My Way Out; 10-Refractometer 

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers get together in a middle distance main track affair. Refractometer has improved his speed figures with each outing and seems ready to graduate despite his extreme outside post. The P. D’Amato-trained gelding should have enough tactical speed to get over and settle somewhere in mid-pack and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Mad At Money, runner-up under similar conditions in late July, shows a steady, healthy work pattern and has numbers that put him in the mix. He is a nine race maiden but a major contender in a soft spot. Blue Skye Jade, in the frame in two of his last three outings, stretches out again and should be part of the pace throughout. The C. Lewis-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure last time out and with continued improvement might be able to break through. My Way Out has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and a pedigree that should allow him to improve going long. With just two career starts, the son of Paynter is unexposed, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two. 
RACE 3: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B+ 
Single: 1-Encoder 

Forecast: Encoder was highly impressive breaking his maiden at first asking last month sprinting over this turf course, and today he gets to show what he can do over a distance of ground. The son of English Channel seems certain to improve two-turning for J. Sadler, and from the rail F. Prat can pretty much dictate his trip. At 9/5 on the morning and possibly going lower than that, he’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single in this year’s edition of the Del Mar Juvenile Turf. 

RACE 4: Post 3:41 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 4-Kylemore; 10-Vintage Hollywood 

Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 main track claiming miler for older horses. Vintage Hollywood, first off the claim for A. Lerner (a powerful 25% with this angle) just dismantled a lesser field over this track and distance by five widening lengths while earning a career top speed figure, and if the son of Country Day and turn a similar effort for his new connections he’ll be hard to beat. Both of his career wins have come over the Del Mar main track. Kylemore has been disappointing of late but is realistically spotted (finally) and seems likely to be highly competitive at this level. Dangerous if he can establish a front-running trip, the son of Tiz Wonderful has an excellent opportunity against this group to be the controlling speed and given that kind of trip he could be hard to run down. 
RACE 5: Post 4:06 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 5-War Beast; 8-Cool Runnings; 10-K P Indy 

Forecast: We loved the debut of K P Indy and expect big things from this juvenile son of Competitive Edge. Finding five furlongs too sharp but finishing full of run while mostly on his own courage, the J. Mullins-trained colt wound up a strong runner-up behind Encoder (see today’s third race) and today stretches out to a distance he certainly should be comfortable with. The draw isn’t ideal but won’t get him beat if he’s as good as we think he is. There are two other contenders to consider in your rolling exotics, at least as backups. Cool Runnings, a solid runner-up over this course and distance in his debut in late July for the Desormeaux brothers, will benefit greatly from that experience and can be expected to produce a forward move. He’s a son of American Pharoah, so there’s reason for his connections to be excited. War Beast already has had a couple of races over the local lawn and shows improving speed figures for the D. O’Neill barn. Blinkers are added for the first time, so the son of Declaration of War certainly has a right to continue in the right direction. 
RACE 6: Post 4:37 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 8-Shes All Woman; 9-Time for Suzzie; 10-Staythirstymyamigo 

Forecast: Here’s a difficult $25,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-old fillies that has a number of possibilities. We’ll hope to survive and advance going three-deep. Shes All Woman drops into a seller for the first time and may have found her proper level. On numbers she’s certainly a strong fit and she gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Diaz, Jr. Two nice five furlong workouts since raced are encouraging. Time for Suzzie moves up a notch after winning a $20,000 claimer here last month with a career-top number. If she can turn in two alike, she can be tough right back and R. Bejarano will give her the patient ride she needs. Staythirstymyamigo also is fresh from a nice score, hers coming vs. $12,500 foes with the rally-wide trip that has been so effective over this main track all season long. She’s favorably drawn outside and is worth using on a ticket or two despite the class hike. 
RACE 7: Post 5:08 PT. Grade: 
Use: 1-Foray; 2-Wound Tight; 5-Offshore 

Forecast: Wound Tight was visually very impressive winning at this level vs. state-bred foes over this course and distance in late July and has been kept on edge since with a steady, healthy series of workouts for R. Hess, Jr. Today he faces open foes, but his numbers are rapidly rising, he’s drawn favorably inside, and has the kind of tactical speed to ensure a perfect, pace-stalking journey. At 5-1 on the morning line the son of Coil offers value both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Foray had severe traffic trouble and lost his chance a furlong out against similar last time out in a race with a blazing early pace. There should be far less heat today; in fact, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the J. Sadler-trained gelding on the lead from the rail. Dangerous on figures and lightly-raced with only eight prior outings, the son of Eskendereya is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Offshore is a two-time winner over the Del Mar turf course, most recently rallying from off the pace with the help of the race-shape to win a $25,000 claimer in his first start since last December. Protected this time by high percentage connections, the R. Baltas-trained gelding should fire a similar shot today but probably will be forced to overcome softer early splits. You should at least use him as a backup or a saver. 
RACE 8: Post 5:39 PT. Grade: B 
Use: 4-Matera; 7-Quality Response; 10-Scarlet Lips 

Forecast: Matera disappointed in her debut when showing speed before weakening to wind up third at 70 cents on the dollar last month but she drew the dreaded rail in that race and paid the price in the final furlong. She’s trained very well since, gets a better draw, and should be given another chance to show here best stuff in this abbreviated sprint for maiden juvenile fillies. M. Smith got to know her and stays aboard. Scarlet Lips had the good fortune of landing the cozy outside post and has trained well enough to be a strong factor first crack out of the box. The daughter of Malibu Moon was a $400,000 yearling purchase and earlier this meeting was working in company and holding her own with yesterday’s Del Mar Debutante winner Bast. She’s one of two B. Baffert-trained entrants, the other being Quality Response, a daughter of Quality Road with a healthy work tab that should have her fit enough. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Matera on top. 

RACE 9: Post 6:09 PT. Grade: B+ 
Use: 3-Nolde; 5-Neptune’s Storm; 8-Moody Jim 

Forecast: Nolde lost a heartbreaker in the opening day Oceanside Stakes when hitting the front close home, only to be nailed by Jasikan in the final jump. The Pioneerof the Nile colt skipped the La Jolla Handicap to wait for this race, and we suspect the J. Shirreffs-trained sophomore will continue his improving pattern over this nine furlong trip that he’s certainly bred to like. V. Espinoza fits him well and stays aboard. Neptune’s Storm, a two-time stakes winner but most recently second, beaten a neck, in the La Jolla H. last month, picks up F. Geroux and should have every chance from a pace-prompting or stalking spot. The R. Baltas-trained gelding won the Cinema Stakes at this distance during the Santa Anita main track and has numbers that continue to rise with each recent outing. Moody Jim just broke his maiden and now is being asked to compete in Grade 2 company, a rather ambitious assignment, but the Irish-bred colt was quite impressive in victory and earned a speed figures that tells us he belongs at this level. The J. Mullins-trained colt may be the most dangerous of the deep closing types. Preference on top goes to Nolde but we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics. 
RACE 10: Post 6:38 PT. Grade: B- 
Use: 4-Eustace; 6-Mainframe Judy; 8-Itsthattime 

Forecast: Mainframe Judy was favored in straight maiden state-bred company in his debut last month but faded to fourth after pressing the pace, so his connections drop him into a maiden $50,000 claimer that should be well within his capabilities. The P. Miller-trained gelding earned a pretty good speed figure in defeat, one that should be sufficient to beat this modest bunch. Itsthattime also was a beaten choice in his debut, finishing fifth in a maiden $80,000 affair in late July. The class drop is warranted and as a first-time gelding the J. Bonde-trained son of Strong Mandate looks like a live item. Eustace earned a respectable speed figure when second in a similar maiden claimer last month, beaten more than five lengths by a colt who came back hit the board in the stakes race earlier this week. The Ministers Wild Cat colt can further improve as he gains experience and should at least get a part of it again today.