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Monday, September 02: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

September 2, 2019

Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Del Mar
Monday, September 2, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers: Jeff Siegel's Day Makers at Del Mar on September 2nd, 2019

RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Magic At Midnight

Forecast: Magic At Midnight is listed at 9/5 on the morning line in this starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares and based on speed figures she should be odds-on (and probably will be). A 13-length winner in her debut at Los Alamitos in mid-July, the daughter of Midnight Lute was claimed by M. Glatt out of that race and for whatever reason didn’t start her throughout the Del Mar until closing day, even though her work tab indicates that she’s been training right along. Rail and all, she figures to easily dispose of her outclassed rivals but clearly will offer no wagering value. You can make her a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Be a Shero; 3-Cellar Door

Forecast: Cellar Door ran quite well in her debut to finish second over this course and distance and seems certain to improve with M. Smith riding her back for J. Mullins. The daughter of Awesome Again had her effort franked when the filly who beat her, Stylishly, came back to win convincingly on the raise. Three easy workouts since that late July outing should have her right on edge. Be a Shero, also a runner-up under these conditions in her most recent outing, makes her second start off a long layoff and is another that seems likely to move forward. She switches to F. Prat, lands the rail, and like Cellar Door figures to do best work from off the pace. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Cellar Door.

RACE 3: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Durga; 6-Miss Megan; 10-Sothalis

Forecast: Miss Megan gets off the dreaded rail and may be capable of controlling this race on the front end after opening up and then paying the price in the final furlong when third in a similar maiden special weight sprint last month. She shortens up a half-furlong, retains D. Van Dyke, and shouldn’t have any excuses in what looks to be a below par race for the level. Sothalis exits the same race as Miss Megan and finished a respectable fourth while having a right to need the outing. She retains F. Prat, lands the cozy outside post, and has worked well since that race, so a forward move by the P. D’Amato-trained daughter of Vronsky is probable. Durga showed a bit of ability in a maiden claiming dash in her debut last month and earned a comparable speed figure to what Miss Megan was assigned in her race. The issue for her is today’s post – the rail – and that’s not where you want to be sprinting on this racetrack. However, the L. Powell-trained filly should be fitter today, so we’ll include her in our rolling exotics on a ticket or two while reserving the main punch for Miss Megan.

RACE 4: Post 3:38 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Cleopatra’s Strike

Forecast: When last seen in January Cleopatra’s Strike was earning a career top number when beaten a nose in the San Gabriel S.-G2 at Santa Anita in his first start since arriving West and joining the P. D’Amato barn. The veteran gelding was stopped on after that race but appears to be returning as well as he left based on his impressive recent work tab over the Del Mar grass course. The son of Smart Strike has run very well fresh in the past and appears cranked up and ready to roll in this nine-furlong, second-level allowance event. There’s plenty of wagering value if you can get close to his morning line of 7/2, so let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 4:08 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Conquest Smartee; 3-Ooh La La Whalah; 8-Big Barrel

Forecast: We’ll spread the fifth race, a restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint while giving the edge on top to Ooh La La Whalah. Raised a notch in his first-off-the-claim for P. Miller (a powerful 27% with this angle), the lightly-raced gelding has the route-to-sprint pattern that we like, adds blinkers for the first time, and switches to hustling rider M. Garcia. He’ll need a bit of improvement in the speed figure department to beat this field but we suspect he’ll step forward enough to just that, and at 6-1 on the morning line he’s quite enticing. Conquest Smartee has never been big on winning (he’s 1-for-15 with 10 seconds and thirds) but is in good form right now and really won’t have to improve much for new trainer M. Pearson to be a strong threat throughout. He should at least land in the frame. Big Barrel plummets in class for L. Powell, almost suspiciously so, but if he has one good one left the Surf Cat gelding should be highly-competitive in this league based on his state-bred maiden win two runs back. We expect to see him running on late under R. Bejarano.

RACE 6: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 10-Shedaresthedevil

Forecast: Shedaresthedevil was no match for Amalfi Sunrise when third in the Sorrento S.-G3 sprinting on dirt last month but has nothing even remotely that good to worry about as she stretches out and tries grass for the first time in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Turf. She doesn’t really have what you’d call a grass pedigree, but a recent solo workout around dogs on grass was quite impressive and provided strong evidence that she will handle the surface switch just fine. With gets F. Prat as well, so at 9/5 on the morning line we’ll make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 5:08 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Mandy; 2-Traffic Stopper

Forecast: Mandy will have to overcome her poor rail draw but in what appears to be a below standard race for state-bred juvenile fillies the P. Miller-trained daughter of Commissioner seems to have found a field she can handle. Fourth in a prior run at Indiana Downs last month, she adds Lasix and blinkers today and has two easy workouts over the Del Mar main track to have her ready, but probably will have to extract herself from the deeper inside lanes to have her best chance at earning her diploma. Breaking right along is the one she probably has to worry about the most, Traffic Stopper. The Cross Traffic filly showed ability in her debut when second at Los Alamitos in July but then had a rough trip and was no factor over this main track later that month. Freshened and working steadily, the B. Koriner-trained filly seems likely to bounce back with her best effort and is worth including in rolling exotic play.

RACE 8: Post 5:38 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Guitty

Forecast: European invader Guitty showed some ability in her only start, finishing second in a representative maiden race in the French provinces in June and was subsequently purchased privately and shipped to California. The L. Powell-trained filly shows a couple of local satisfactory workouts and lands F. Prat, so in a maiden two-turn turf race for juvenile fillies that is begging to be won by a fresh face, she fits the bill. Let’s make the French-bred filly a straight play at or near her morning linen of 2-1 and a rolling exotic single as well.

RACE 9: Post 6:08 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 2-Eight Rings

Forecast: Eight Rings was the most impressive maiden juvenile winner of the meeting last month and deserves top billing in a strong edition of the Del Mar Futurity-G1, the traditional closing day feature of the season. The son of Empire Maker earned a sensational speed figure in his six length romp and should be even more comfortable at this elongated sprint distance. A bullet six furlong work since his win shows that the B. Baffert-trained colt remains spot on, though he’d be wise to duplicate or even improve on his debut win as there are a numbers of other highly promising and talented colts in the field. At 5/2 on the morning line – and we’re pretty sure he’ll go lower – he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post 6:38 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Zee Drop; 3-Sedamar; 5-Seranitsa

Forecast: The season finale is a grass grab bag for first-level allowance 3-year-old fillies. Seranitsa seems as good as any and better than most after finishing a respectable fifth, beaten just three lengths, in the San Clemente S.-G2 earlier this season. Her only win came in gate-to-wire fashion but she strikes us as capable of stalking and winning if the race flow dictates. One of the barn’s main “go-to” jockeys, R. Bejarano, takes the call. Zee Drop, in her second start since arriving from the east, should produce a forward move for the F. Prat/P. D’Amato barn and projects to enjoy a comfortable ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. A close fourth vs. similar last month, the daughter of Lemon Drop King seems capable of producing a significant forward move. Sedamar just won a state-bred allowance race over this course and with continued improvement could be good enough to act in open company. She’s competitive on speed figures and employs a stalking style that should keep her free of trouble.