Log In

Weekly Bankroll Builder: September 6 Stronach 5 Play

by Brian Nadeau

September 5, 2019

Back to battle with the Stronach 5 after a two-week hiatus, and it will once again have a 100k guarantee, though the pool has been easily surpassing that number every week. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 45 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout.
I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R8 (5:12 ET) – 3up Md-bred/sired 35k allowance at 6 furlongs

While I’m not bold enough to single #2 TAPPIN CAT, there’s little doubt he’s the most likely winner, so I don’t want to go too deep here, as his run in the restricted ranks have been better than this group, plus he should sit a dream trip just off the speed. The other A I’ll use is #1a STREET PRAYER, since the race flow should suit his stalking/closing style, and he’s never been in with restricted foes, so this is a class drop off his first two.

Pk5 A horses: 2,1a

It’s tough to get a feel on #3 NICO BREE N TEEJ, as his best can win this, but he doesn’t always deliver it, though his last says he’s in good form and must be used in some regard. A wide draw doesn’t help #9 THATWOULDBEGRAND, but he wasn’t too far behind ‘Cat last time and is another who will appreciate a contested pace.

Pk5 B horses: 3,9

(Please note that to keep the backup ticket here to a minimum, I’ll be singling #4 on this ticket in the last leg.)

Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R7 (5:25 ET) –3up SOC (25k/S16k) at 1-mile (turf)

Getting back to the dirt and going off the claim for Hess Jr. (23%) makes #4 WINGMAN a huge player here, especially since he has the tactical speed to get the jump on the favorite and drew a lot better than him too. Obviously #8 CASH CALL KITTEN is the horse to beat, but this draw did him no favors and this group looks a little tougher than the one he just beat, so I’m not completely sold on his chances.

Pk5 A horses: 4,8

I’m going to be a little bold here and call it a day, as the top pair look better than the rest, but clearly a more expansive bankroll can use others, as #5 Just the Facts should trip out nicely, and #3 Grand Nenuco and #1 Dexter Road weren’t far behind ‘Kitten when 2-3, respectively, last time, though their decided lack of early speed won’t help.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Leg 3: Golden Gate Fields R4 (5:45 ET) – 2yof MSW at 5 furlongs (turf)

Tough sledding here, as none of these gals have run on turf and only two have met the starter, though the good news is that you can look into the double will pays to get an idea who is live and taking money. I’ll stab with #2 ANNA LEE ENCORE, who has some sharp works showing and Wright reaches for main man Hernandez, so there’s probably some intent here. The experience, speed, and post of #6 UNTIED can’t be a bad thing, nor can cutting back a half-furlong after a pop-and-stop in his local debut on the Tapeta last time. I’ll also use #4 EDDIE’S PRINCESS, since there are several promising AM drills showing and I love when a smaller barn (Tekos) lands a top rider (Orozco).

Pk5 A horses: 2,6,4

I don’t love the rail for #1 PULPIT SINGER, but she’s the only other one with a run, so that alone means she needs to be used. The only other one I’d give a look to is #7 Big Maria, but with McCanna, who is a very sharp trainer, being 0-for-28 with first time turfers, I’ve got to make this one prove it before backing.

Pk5 B horses: 1

Leg 4: Laurel Park R9 (5:52 ET) –2yof MSW at 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)

This one just looks impossible, so I want to try to use anyone who looks live or has shown some promise, though the list is a long one, so it’s going to be tough to incorporate everyone I’d like to. I’ll go with #7 AMARIN, #9 PALACE CHECK, #3 GIGGLE FACTORY, #1 MIDSHIP LADY, and #5 NEXT SUMMER on top, as they all have their merits, some angles, and go for sharp connections.

Pk5 A horses: 7,9,3,1,5

The rail hurts #2 FACTORINTHEHEAT, but Eppler is sharp and she lures McCarthy, so you have to be at least a bit interested here, while #8 PEPPER got a useful tightener on debut at Colonial Downs and did well to draw outside the other speed.

Pk5 B horses: 2,8

Leg 5: Gulfstream Park R9 (6:29 ET) – 2yo 25k MCL at about 7 1/2 furlongs (turf)

If post position is at a premium going a mile, then going a half-furlong shorter makes it detrimental, so we need to really elevate the inside runners, and being a first-time starter against a group like this isn’t a bad thing, so #4 KEEPSAKEKITTEN has to be a huge player here on debut for Maker, who is a solid enough 15% on debut and gets Gutierrez, who 37% with at the meet. Blinkers and turf moved up #1 HUGOIGO last time and there’s no reason he can’t improve again off that tightener, while #8 THE DOER has the speed to negate this draw a bit and he was a very close, albeit slow, 3rd in his turf debut last time.

Pk5 A horses: 4,1,8

The post basically kills the chances of #11 VENEZUELAN HEART and #12 FRIO, but they have some solid form, and that’s tough to discount against this weak crew, so let’s use them underneath. If he runs his best then #7 El Duque is a big player, but he was awful with no apparent excuse last time and is now 0-for-8, and that big run three-back is getting more and more like the exception than the rule too.

Pk5 B horses: 11,12

My Stronach 5 Tickets:

Main Ticket: 2,1a with 4,8 with 2,6,4 with 7,9,3,1,5 with 4,1,8 = $180
Leg 1 B Backup: 3,9 with 4,8 with 1 with 7,9,3,1,5 with 4,1,8 = $60
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,1a with 4,8 with 2,6,4 with 7,9,3,1,5 with 4 = $60
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,1a with 4,8 with 2,6,4 with 2,8 with 4,1,8 = $72
Leg 5 B Backup: 2,1a with 4,8 with 2,6,4 with 7,9,3,1,5 with 11,12 = $120