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Saturday, September 14: Belmont Park Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

September 14, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Getoffmyback; 5-Orpheus

Forecast: Orpheus has won 13 races during his career, but the 8-year-old gelding hasn’t been very productive in the past two years (he’s 1-for-22 and winless in 11 starts in 2019). However, even in his present form, the C. Martin-trained gelding looks best of this modest group. Six furlongs has never been his trip, but the son of Forestry should be able to find a way to tag the leaders late. Getoffmyback, first off the claim for R. Atras (20% with this angle), is another old pro with nine career wins, one of which came over the Belmont Park main track last year. Recent numbers have been well below his norm, but for new connections he could easily snap back. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these and we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 2: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B-
Single: 5-The Happy Giant

Forecast: We’ll single this very difficult state-bred maiden claiming turf router, not so much because we have a great conviction but simply because we don’t feel like investing a lot of money trying to be right. The Happy Giant was a close fourth (beaten a length) in a similar event at Saratoga last month and with any kind of forward move today may be capable of producing the last run. He’s a fit on numbers and his one prior try over the local lawn wasn’t bad against maiden special weight foes. If it’s not him, it could be anybody. The other options are to use as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play or simply pass the race.

RACE 3: Post 2:06 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Identity Politics/1a-Build to Suit

Forecast: Build to Suit was nosed out in his first start in more than five months in a state-bred stakes at Saratoga last month and a repeat of that race today in this second-level open allowance race should be good enough. The sparingly-raced son of Dominus shows a healthy recent work pattern since that race so we’re expecting to see a top effort. Entry mate Identify Politics has credentials of his own and gives C. Brown a powerful hand. Let’s make the coupling a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 2:39 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Adorable Maya; 4-Maru; 6-Saratoga Beauty

Forecast: This New York-bred juvenile sprint for fillies appears to have come up fairly weak. We’ll spread using three and hope to get by. Saratoga Beauty is the quickest of the quick though she has yet to show a willinglyness to finish under pressure. Against this group as the controlling speed, the daughter of Mucho Uno may get brave and never look back. Adorable Maya, a fair fourth in her debut over a sloppy track, didn’t get much play in that race (19-1) so she’s a hard one to judge. If she moves forward, she has a chance to be a strong late threat. Maru is a first-timer with a moderate series of drills. The daughter of Competitive Edge won’t have to be a world beater to be a fit in this spot.

RACE 5: Post 3:12 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Rhode Island

Forecast: Rhode Island drops to $10,000 below his $40,000 claim level, but this barn can be aggressive with this type of horse so we suspect the son of Giant’s Causeway is ready for a major effort. A winner over this course in the past and with solid recent speed figures, the L. Rice-trained colt lands the good rail and should have every chance from a ground-saving position. Let’s take a stand and use him as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post 3:45 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Secondary Market; 3-Mrs S; 4-New Day Dawning

Forecast: Mrs. S is an intriguing first-timer from the T. Pletcher barn and looks cranked up for a major effort following a series of good-looking drills. The expensive ($230,000) daughter of Creative Cause doesn’t have a whole lot to beat, so if she breaks cleanly she should be a major player from start to finish. Secondary Market closed with some interest to be third in her debut and has a right to move forward with that experience behind her. She doesn’t appear to have a lot of quickness leaving the gate and as such her rail post may be problematic, but you have to use her. Thissmytime brought $140,000 at the OBS April sale where she previewed in 10 1/5 seconds and looked decent doing it. She’s bred to win early (Carpe Die,) and in an open fray is worth tossing in somewhere.

RACE 7: Post 4:18 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Indochine; 5-Scrape; 11-Coalition Building

Forecast: Coalition Building has been impressive in the morning and appears to have plenty of speed, even though her pedigree (Lemon Drop Kid) suggests she should be at her best going long on grass. It’s under these conditions that she makes her racing debut for C. Brown, and if she breaks with her field she should be in the fray – or perhaps even in front – in a field that doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed in it. Let’s put her on top both in rolling exotic play and in the straight pool but use a couple of others as back-ups or savers. The logical favorite and strictly the one to beat is the other C. Brown entrant, Indochine, a strong-finishing third in a fast sprint in her debut and likely to improve significantly with experience and added distance. Scrape has looked decent in the morning as well and the debuting daughter of War Front could be dangerous for W. Mott. A bullet gate drill (47 2/5 seconds, fastest of 37) catches the eye.

RACE 8: Post 4:51 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Connectivity; 6-Morelikelythannot; 9-Keota

Forecast: Keota remains protected by J. Servis – always a positive sign – and with the return to grass the daughter of Lonhro should regain her best form. A proven course specialist with three wins in five starts, the versatile filly can be tough on the front end or from off the pace, so J. Lezcano can assess the race flow and adjust accordingly. Connectivity, claimed in her last pair and now in the barn of S. Asmussen (20% with this angle), is lightly-raced with competitive numbers and room for further improvement. A repeat of her race before last – a sharp win for $50,000 when in the C. Brown stable – probably would be good enough to beat this field. Morelikelythannot finally broke her maiden in her eighth career start and could come right back with another forward move. On numbers she’s a fit. Let’s give Keota top billing but include all three in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post 5:24 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Bassman Dave; 5-Lutsky

Forecast: Lutsky makes his first start as a gelding and will race without blinkers, two reasons we suspect the son of Yes It’s True will regain his best form. He broke his maiden at Belmont Park last year, and while disappointing ever since he exits the Jersey Shore Stakes and should appreciate this softer assignment. Bassman Dave won a recent maiden race with an improved speed figure but today will have to handle a tougher field and extra half furlong. He should draft into a good stalking spot and then have every chance from there. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Lutsky.

RACE 10: Post 5:57 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Seek and Destroy; 8-East

Forecast: East was a closing but distant second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and earlier this year in France finished an excellent third in the French 1000 guineas. Unplaced in a pair of Group-1 races since, she returns to the States and will get Lasix so it’s entirely possible that in her first start for C. Clement the daughter of Frankel will regain her top form. Seek and Destroy looked outstanding winning a Grade-3 race at Woodbine with a strong late kick and if she can repeat that effort under these conditions she’ll have a big chance to score right back. She’s a versatile filly that can be tough on the lead but is just as effective when held up early. Let’s put East slightly on top but double the race in rolling exotic play.

RACE 11: Post 6:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mike’s Girl; 7-Andretta

Forecast: Andretta shows up in a $30,000 claimer, a realistic spot, and the J. Bond-trained daughter of Freud has recent numbers that will beat this field. She’s hit the board in four of five career starts over the Belmont Park turf course and should be forwardly placed and trouble-free throughout. Mike’s Girl won a maiden $40,000 claimer at Saratoga in gate-to-wire fashion recently, finally earning her diploma in her 10th race career start. It was a career-top performance by the daughter of Scat Daddy, once that puts her in the hunt at this level. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying Andretta on top.