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Sunday, October 06: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 6, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Takeo; 4-Mutineer

Forecast: Takeo tries dirt for the first time and if he handles the surface he may be capable of taking this field gate to wire. The son of First Samurai has shown good speed on occasion, and in a five-runner maiden claimer comprised of himself and four plodders, the J. Shirreffs-trained gelding would be wise to take the initiative under bug boy Diaz and wire the field. Mutineer returns to his claim level for D. O’Neill after finishing a distant third in a fairly strong straight maiden miler at Los Alamitos last time out. Off his best race the son of Into Mischief is a solid fit on speed figures and should have every chance to produce the last run form a stalking position. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 2: Post 1:05 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Orquidias Biz; 9-I’m the Hero

Forecast: This maiden turf sprint for juvenile fillies didn’t come up particularly strong. There’s always a chance that one or more of the first-timers outrun their workout times but in the absence of a hidden gem we’ll stick with two best experienced entrants. Orquidias Biz has an improving pattern for J. Mullins, and if she duplicate her dirt form on turf and produces another forward move the daughter of Fed Biz looks as good as any. I’m the Hero has a similar pattern, though slower on speed figures than ‘Biz, and is worth including as well. That :21 3/5 opening quarter at Del Mar in a much tougher straight maiden sprint that saw the winner (Quality Response) return to capture a Los Alamitos stakes race makes this daughter of Bayern a major contender, assuming she handles the surface switch. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two, but if you feel the need to spread in rolling exotic play, go right ahead.

RACE 3: Post 1:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Carressa; 5-Der Lu

Forecast: Carressa didn’t show anything in a pair if sprints last winter before being stopped on but the daughter of Uncle Mo appears to have come back much improved based on her facile victory at Del Mar and sharp recent workouts since that four length maiden score. Today’s one level class jump will require further improvement but we suspect the J. Shirreffs-trained filly has it in her. Der Lu has looked especially sharp of late in the a.m., and after failing to fire in her comeback on turf at Del Mar the B. Baffert-trained filly should be ready for a significant forward move. She’s reunited with “win rider” D. Van Dyke and projects to display more early speed and be in the fray every step of the way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Carressa.

RACE 4: Post 2:15 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Encoder; 4-Billy Betts

Forecast: The Zuma Beach Stakes is essentially a rematch between the first two finishers of the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes, a similar mile grass affair in which Encoder wore down Billy Betts right on the money. This race shapes up the same, with Encoder rallying from off the pace and ‘Betts trying to hang on. Both have a right to improve, so rather than split hairs we’ll use both in our rolling exotics while otherwise passing the race.

RACE 5: Post 2:50 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Lily Con; 6-Darpa

Forecast: This bottom-rung maiden claiming sprint for fillies and mares offers little in the way of wagering value, with Darpa, beaten a head while eight lengths clear of the rest in a similar event at Del Mar last time out, listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite. Lily Con drops to a realistic level in her first outing since February and might be a better type off the layoff. She hails from a winning barn (R. Baltas) and did flash speed in a pair of route races before being stopped on. You can toss her in on a ticket or two while recognizing that Darpa is a likely short-price winner.

RACE 6: Post 3:25 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Raging Whiskey; 8-Square Deal

Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag for juvenile sprinters, and a case can be made for many if not most of the 11 entrants. We’ll recommend two in rolling exotic but best advice is to include as many as your budget allows. Raging Whiskey is unproven on turf – he failed in a two-turn grass race that we won’t hold against him – but on pure form he’s good enough to beat this field if handles the surface switch. Square Deal isn’t as fast on figures as ‘Whiskey but he’s a son of Square Eddie and therefore eligible to move up a ton on turf. Prat stays aboard and should have him within striking range outside every step of the way.

RACE 7: Post 3:55 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Anuket; 5-Miss Ava’s Union; 6-Rather Nosy

Forecast: Anuket has been away since stumbling and losing her rider at the start in a first-level allowance race at 50 cents on the dollar last winter, but the works indicate she’s fit and ready and her debut maiden win in her previous outing, if repeated, is good enough to beat this field. She gets a break in the weights with the presence of good bug boy J. Diaz in the saddle, so we’ll put her on top while also including Miss Ava’s Union and Rather Nosy in rolling exotic play. ‘Union graduated with a sharp speed figure at Del Mar while on the pace throughout and with another forward move could be tough to beat right back. You can also toss on a ticket or two as a back-up ‘Nosy, a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and back with “win rider” Prat. Her numbers are solid and consistent and should put her in the thick of things throughout.

RACE 8: Post 4:25 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Yesterdayoncemore; 5-Mind Out; 7-Croughavouke

Forecast: Mind Out walked out of the gate, lagged, commenced her rally very wide into the lane and gobbled up the leaders late to graduate over five furlongs on turf in very impressive fashion in her racing debut. She galloped out strong to indicate more distance will be well within her capabilities, so despite the raise into stakes competition the daughter of Tapit could easily be this good. Recent works have been quite impressive as well, further evidence that’s she’s capable of stepping forward. Yesterdayoncemore and Croughavouke finished one-three in their U.S. debuts in the Del Mar Juvenile Fillies Stakes, both making highly favorable impressions, and if they don’t “Euro-bounce” they will be major players right back. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then press keying Mind Out on top.