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Sunday, October 13: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 13, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-High Velocity

Forecast: High Velocity has trained like a quick colt and looks ready to win at first asking for the B. Baffert barn, which clicks at an amazing 42% with first-time starters. This $350,000 yearling purchase by Quality Road is listed at even money for a reason – he appears to be a standout in this maiden special weight dash for juveniles that attracted only six entrants. There’s no value to be found here, so your choice is to make ‘Velocity a short-price rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Shandling

Forecast: Shandling is listed at 8-1 on the morning line in this maiden special weight turf sprint for older horses. We doubt you’ll get it. The son of Distorted Humor finally makes it to the post after bringing $150,000 at the Fasig-Tipton March 2-year-old in training sale back in 2018, and his workouts, both at San Luis Rey Downs and at Santa Anita, show this gelding is fit and ready. Though he most certainly is blessed with early speed, the P. D’Amato-trained 3-year-old has been trained to rally around horses, so whatever race flow develops he should be able to cope with it. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Honor A. P; 5-Eel Point; 9-Eddy Forever

Forecast: This is a fairly strong maiden main track mile affair for juveniles with several that own stakes potential. Eel Point closed a considerable amount of ground after breaking slowly in his sprint debut and since then has trained very well, much better in fact than he did prior to his first outing. The son of Into Mischief retains bug boy Diaz and should produce a significant forward move, one that makes him very dangerous at 12-1 morning line. We’ll use him in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Honor A. P. and Eddy Forever are both talented colts as well and probably should also be included on your ticket. The former closed with purpose to be a strong runner-up in his debut at Del Mar and has trained steadily since, while the latter switches to dirt for the first time and is bred to improve with the change in surface.

RACE 4: Post 2:05 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Absolutely Perfect

Forecast: Absolutely Perfect turned in a solid third place performance in her sprint comeback at Del Mar in August, shows a healthy work tab since, and seems ready to regain her winning form while stretching out to a distance she’s proven she can handle. The daughter of Vronsky retains Prat for a barn that has strong stats with second-off-layoff runners, so we’re expecting the D. Blacker-trained 4-year-old to settle into a stalking position and then have every chance to exert her superiority from the quarter pole home. However, at 6/5 on the morning line, there’s not much we can do with her other than to single her in rolling exotic play.

RACE 5: Post 2:37 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Love of Art; 5-Princess Dorian

Forecast: We’ll try to get by using just two in this $10,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares. Love of Art is a three-time winner in good form for J. Metz and can score again if she can repeat her Los Alamitos performance from last month against this similar group. Bug boy Velez, who was aboard for her most recent win, should have her within range throughout. Princess Dorian, first off the claim for A. Lerner (26% with this angle), plummets from $20,000 to $10,000, not a healthy sign. But if the daughter of Idiot Proof has at least one good one left she can certainly win in this league, and in her first start over a distance of ground she could easily get loose on the lead and never look back.

RACE 6: Post 3:12 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Grinningeartoear; 10-Apache Pass

Forecast: Apache Pass missed as the favorite in her debut sprinting on turf in August but we’re willing to give the daughter of Paddy O’Prado a second chance. She continues to impress in the morning for M. Glatt, adds blinkers, and switches to hot-riding A. Cedillo. We’re expecting to see here display a lot more early speed and draft into an ideal pace-stalking or pressing position outside. Grinningeartoear may be the quickest of the quick, having cut out good fractions in her debut at Los Alamitos last July before fading late and then being vanned off after she noticeably bled. She trains like she’s over that problem, so with R. Bejarano staying aboard, she’s highly-likely to stick around a whole lot longer. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Apache Pass on top.

RACE 7: Post 3:47 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Shedaresthedevil; 4-Leucothea; 6-Eclair

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Anoakia Stakes for juvenile fillies came up quite contentious, so you probably should include as many as you can afford to in rolling exotic play. Shedaresthedevil couldn’t stay a mile when tried in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar last month but today she returns to the main track, shortens to her preferred trip, and adds blinkers. Assuming she leaves cleanly from the rail, F. Prat should have her within striking range throughout. Leucothea earned a speed figure at Del Mar when breaking her maiden for a high price tag that would win this. Whether or not she can reproduce that form after two subsequent disastrous outings is questionable, but we’ll have her somewhere on our ticket. Eclair is learning to rate and from her outside post should inherit a cozy stalking journey. On numbers she’s in very tough but based on recent workouts she’s certainly appears capable of improving. Toss her in as a saver, at least.

RACE 8: Post 4:19 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-South West Bay; 3-Unbroken Star

Forecast: Unbroken Star tries turf for the first time after finishing a solid runner-up in a similar main track affair at Del Mar in mid-August. The lightly-raced son of Broken Vow sports a steady, healthy series of recent works, and seems likely to produce a good forward move with J. Talamo staying aboard for the M. Puype barn. South West Bay broke his maiden sprinting at Saratoga in late July and makes his first start since for new connections. He’s almost certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics and if he can shake loose early without undue pressure the English-bred gelding could take the field a very long way. We’ll prefer Unbroken Star on top but include both in our rolling exotics.