Log In

Saturday, October 19: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

October 19, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Jodie Faster; 6-Warrior’s Moon

Forecast: Jodie Faster missed by a neck in decent debut at Los Alamitos last month and has every right to produce a forward move while stretching out and switching to turf, conditions she is bred to enjoy. The P. D’Amato-trained filly sports a healthy if unspectacular series of drills since that race and based on the early zip she displayed in her debut could easily wind up being the controlling speed. Warrior’s Moon has the benefit of three prior outings including a respectable third place (after moving too soon) in a two-turn state-bred maiden grass at Del Mar in her most recent start. She’s not particular fast on numbers but regains F. Prat and with patient handling may be capable of producing the last run. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two, with slight preference on top to Jodie Faster.

RACE 2: Post 1:01 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Tequila Sunrise

Forecast: Tequila Sunrise looks like the logical winner in the second race, a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler for fillies and mares, but in a four-runner field and listed at 4/5 on the morning line the R. Baltas certainly offers little to no wagering value. Though just 1-for-15 in her career, she’s hit the board in five of six career starts over the local main track, and she’s far superior to the other three based strictly on speed figures. This is a good race to pass.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Boogalute; 5-Broke Away Grey

Forecast: Broke Away Grey broke his maiden in his debut by more than six lengths over this main track more than two years ago but has had his issues and been sparingly raced since. Though beaten as the choice in a similar restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer at Los Alamitos in his last outing, the son of Broken Vow should be capable of producing the last run with his top effort. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics Boogalute, dropping into a claimer for the first time while also adding blinkers. He’s a fit on speed figures switches to F. Prat, and looked pretty good in a recent workout over this track.

RACE 4: Post 2:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-California Kook; 6-Navy Queen; 8-Ride Sally Ride

Forecast: We’ll spread the fourth race, a split of today’s opener, a mile turf affair for state-bred maiden juvenile fillies. Ride Sally Ride, third in both of her starts, stretches out for the first time and switches to turf, a surface that with Giant’s Causeway on top of her pedigree and Shakespeare on the bottom should move her up a ton. If she improves at all, the J. Carava-trained daughter of Creative Cause looks quite capable of earning her diploma. Navy Queen, a close second in the same dirt sprint that Ride Sally Ride finished third, is likewise eligible to improve routing on grass. Despite hailing from a low-percentage outfit, she must be considered a contender. California Kook is a first-timer from San Luis Rey Downs from the clever P. Miller barn and also has a nice turf pedigree. The works are nothing special but from the rail and with good bug boy J. Velez aboard the daughter of Boisterous represents stranger danger and is worth including somewhere on your ticket.

RACE 5: Post 2:40 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Claim of Passion; 5-Satchel Paige

Forecast: Trainer Phil D’Amato holds the aces with the two main contenders in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint. Satchel Paige is long overdue for a win and gets his easiest chance yet in a field of just a field of six runner. The gelded son of Grazen has no early speed but often produces a better-than-average late kick and with some help up front could be capable of wearing down the leaders late. Claim of Passion is strictly the one to beat based on his strong runner-up effort in a similar affair at Del Mar two runs back. A rough trip in his most recent outing – a dull try as the favorite at Los Alamitos – probably can be forgiven. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Satchel Paige on top.

RACE 6: Post 3:15 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-What a View; 2-Tribalist

Forecast: Tribalist is winless in five prior outings over the Santa Anita turf course but that’s the only real concern in this state-bred stakes for older turf sprinters. The son of Tribal Run was a bit below form when unplaced in the recent Eddie D. S.-G2 in open company but against Cal-breds the B. Heap-trained gelding should be able to exert his superiority. What a View may have lost a step now that he’s eight-years-old, but the classy gelding, after a two month vacation and returning in a rare sprint, could snap back to life over a course he’s been known to love. He’s always been most effective on the lead but could be asked to stalk and pounce today. We’ll prefer Tribalist on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 7: Post 3:45 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Totally Tiger; 4-Papster; 5-Flat White

Forecast: Papster has been burning up the Los Alamitos main track in the morning, though fast workout times at that track don’t always hold up over the much deeper Santa Anita surface. However, the son of Munnings is bred to win early and should be fit enough, so we’ll put him on top but not with a great deal of confidence. Flat White has looked okay in drills leading up to his debut and should be included as well. A recent gate drill (4f, :48hg, fourth fastest of 50 for the distance) should make him a fit in this state-bred juvenile dash. Totally Tiger is improving with racing and with another forward move today the A. Lerner-trained gelding should prove best of the known element. The son of Smiling Tiger isn’t real quick leaving the gate but has a bit of a late kick that could be effective if the first-timers aren’t all that.

RACE 8: Post 4:15 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Blue Sky Baby; 9-Bruja Escarlata; 11-Reducta

Forecast: Here’s another contentious maiden special weight juvenile sprint, this one on turf for fillies. Reducta had the good fortune of drawing in from the also-eligible list and despite her extreme outside draw the Irish-invader looks to have an edge based on her most recent race, a second place finish in mid-August in a 21-runner affair at Cork that was assigned a respectable 72 Timeform rating. She gets Lasix and A. Cedillo for her U.S. debut and shows a couple of short local easy breezes for M. Glatt to have her on edge. Bruja Escarlata brought $185,000 in the OBS March Sale where she previewed impressively in a quick 21 2/5 seconds and her works at Los Alamitos indicate she’s fit and ready. The J. Sadler barn is solid with first-time starters. Blue Sky Baby has done some solid work in the morning for the P. D’Amato barn and looks dangerous as well, though her pedigree suggests she’ll do her best work over a distance of ground. In her preview at the OBS April sale and prior to be purchased through the ring for $140,000, the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile breezed a furlong in 10 seconds flat while displaying a nice way of going. With F. Prat taking the call, she has to be included.