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Friday, November 08: Del Mar Wagering Strategies

by Xpressbet

November 8, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Summer Fire; 5-I Will Not

Forecast: We’ll be watching closely to see if the regular anti-inside bias of the Del Mar main track – which was so prevalent during the summer meeting – returns for this 15-day boutique season. Assuming it remains in effect, we’ll give I Will Not a slight edge on top over Summer Fair primarily because of the draw. The son of Square Eddie tries dirt for the first time while returning to a sprint and adding blinkers, so we’re expecting improvement by the D. O’Neill-trained juvenile colt. If he can run, this would be an ideal time to show it. Summer Fire had the misfortune of drawing the rail but the R. Hess-trained colt switches to F. Prat, shows a bullet workout since raced, and has enough early speed to gain a favorable position. In a race that might otherwise be best left alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Big Runnuer; 3-Wildman Jack; 7-General Interest

Forecast: Here’s a spread race, a first-level allowance turf sprint that has at least three main contenders among the seven entered. Wildman Jack is quite fast on speed figures and all three of his career outings have been excellent. Nosed out in a hot race in his most recent appearance at Santa Anita under similar conditions last month, the Goldencents gelding graduated over this course and distance during the summer meeting and can be expected to fire a similar shot with regular rider R. Bejarano staying aboard for D. O’Neill. Big Runnuer won easily in his debut last month at Santa Anita and while he probably didn’t have a whole lot behind him he did it stylishly while earning a better than par speed figure. We’ll see what he’s made of today. General Interest is the best of the closers, and if there’s a pace meltdown he’ll be heard from late. Toss him in as a saver or a back-up.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Kenzou’s Rhythm; 5-Brimstoned

Forecast: Let’s try to get by using just two horses in the third race, a mid-grade claiming main track miler for older horses. In a race loaded with speed-types, Brimstone is intriguing at 5-1 on the morning line. The veteran gelding will get the patient ride he needs from regular pilot B. Blanc, and two of his four career victories were accomplished over this main track. His recent form is just so-so, but under these conditions the son of Unusual Heat seems likely to bounce back. Kenzou’s Rhythm was rusty and far back in his recent comeback in a starter’s allowance event but the J. Mullins-trained gelding certainly can do better and has several back numbers that would fit very well in this field. We’re going to assume he’s okay, otherwise, the barn would be running him considerably cheaper than $20,000.

RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Golden Melodie; 6-It’s a Riddle; 7-Chieftess

Forecast: Maiden claiming $32,000 juvenile fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in a fairly wide open affair that requires a spread. It’s a Riddle, overmatched in straight maiden state-bred company last time out, drops for the money run today and appears to have found her proper level. The R. Hess. Jr.-trained daughter of Merit Man finished a strong runner-up in a maiden $50,000 affair in her debut over this track and distance two runs back and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough to earn her a diploma. Chieftess, in the money in her last pair, has rising speed figures and with another forward move should be in the fray throughout. Golden Melodie adds blinkers for the first time, shortens up a furlong, and displayed sufficient early speed in her four prior runs to project expect that she’ll have a strong pace preference from the start. However, she has only one way to go from her two-hole post, and if the early races on today’s program suggest that track may be biased against inside runners her chances will diminish.

RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Hootie; 2-Storm the Bastille; 8-Volubile

Forecast: Volubile makes his first start since being haltered for $50,000 by R. Hess, Jr. (strong 20% with this angle) and makes a major jockey switch to F. Prat. The son of More Than Ready broke his maiden over this turf course during the summer meeting and with only mild improvement looks capable of producing the last run. Storm the Bastille has speed figures that are rising with every outing and from where he’s drawn projects to enjoy an ideal ground-ground-saving trip. He remains protected in a sign of confidence by W. Spawr and may find himself in a good pace-stalking position in a race that isn’t likely to have fast early splits. Hootie got burned up pressing a 45 seconds half mile in a similar starter’s grass affair at Santa Anita last month and did very well to battle back through the lane and wind up third, missing by only a neck. He’s winless in five career starts over the local lawn – that’s a concern – but if the M. McCarthy-trained gelding is allowed to establish his own pace he may prove tough to catch. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Volubile.

RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Adorably Sweet; 4-Too Hot for Curlin; 7-Stormin Ranger

Forecast: Too Hot for Curlin shortens from a series of grass route events to a dirt sprint and we suspect the change in trip and surface will bring our her best. The P. D’Amato-trained filly figures to settle early and then rally late, a running style that during the summer meeting proved quite effective. Adorably Sweet must overcome the dreaded rail in this abbreviated sprint for maiden state-bred fillies and mares but if the track appears to be playing fair – pay close attention to the early races – she should be a major contender. Off the board and vanned off when favored in her only prior start last December over this main track, the daughter of Richard’s Kid has trained nicely for her return, and it seems significant that she returns protected, not in a high price maiden claimer. Stormin Ranger represents stranger danger as a first-time starter from a capable barn with some decent drills at Los Alamitos on her resume. The daughter of U S Ranger won’t have to be a world beater to act with these, so we’ll include her on a few tickets in our rolling exotic play.

RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Poster Girl

Forecast: Poster Girl earned a graded stakes-quality speed figure in the best race of her career when winning an optional claimer over a mile on grass in her most recent outing. Claimed out of that race for $62,500 by W. Spawr, the veteran English-bred mare sports a healthy work pattern since that early October score, and with strong previous form over the local lawn she appears capable of taking this raise in class to overnight stakes company in stride. T. Pereira, who knows her well, stays aboard and should have her in an ideal pace-stalking position, ready to pounce when called upon. At 3-1 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tiz Toffee; 5-Road Test

Forecast: Tiz Toffee, never worse than second in four career outings over the Del Mar main track, should be the controlling speed in this starter’s allowance main track miler for fillies and mares and is reunited with A. Delgadillo, who was aboard the daughter of Sydney’s Candy when she last won three races back over this track and distance. A similar effort today should be good enough, so we’ll put her on top but also include Road Test in our rolling exotics. Better known for finishing second or third (17 times) rather that winning (four times), she goes for a small but capable outfit in her first off the $12,500 claim and could be a strong late threat if she can settle in the second flight behind the speed types. She’s run well at Del Mar in the past (a win and two seconds in five prior starts) and retains good bug boy J. Diaz, Jr., who has won on her in the past. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Tiz Toffee.