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Jeff Siegel's Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies for 11/09/19

by Jeff Siegel

November 9, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.


RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Potantico; 7-Via Egnatia

Forecast: The Saturday opener has the look of a chaotic affair, as the favorites seem a bit suspect on paper and probably shouldn’t be trusted. Via Enatia is a first-time gelding returning to the main track with no history of success on dirt, yet he’s the 2-1 favorite by default based purely on speed figures. Certainly, he could win because he’s a need-the-lead type in a race that doesn’t appear to have too much other zip. Potantico was a sharp maiden winner over this track and distance two runs back at 34-1 but then reverted to his previous form when far back and never a threat vs. first-level allowance company. He’s not as fast on numbers as Via Egnatia but we know he can handle the track and at Del Mar sometimes that’s half the battle. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with any degree of confidence, and if you’d prefer to spread the race or pass it altogether that’s fine, too.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 7-Gold Arrow

Forecast: Gold Arrow trained well for her comeback but then spun her wheels over the deep Santa Anita main track and finished far back in a maiden affair last month. She did show enough last winter to indicate she has enough ability to win a race like this, and with the switch to turf the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro should be given another chance to display her best form. With F. Prat under suspension, D. Van Dyke takes over and will likely have this N. Drysdale-trained 4-year-old on or near the lead throughout. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Papa Turf; 3-Fast Cotton

Forecast: This race boils down to two main contenders, with slight preference on top to Fast Cotton. Up a notch on the class ladder after a sharp score vs. $10,000 foes at Santa Anita last month, the D. O’Neill-trained gelding is comfortably drawn just outside his chief rival and can be on the pace or just off it depending upon the race flow.. A prior winner over the Del Mar main track and retaining A. Delgadillo, the veteran son of High Cotton seems well-placed for a repeat score. Papa Turf woke up and ran his best race in years when crushing $10,000 foes by almost 13 lengths while earning a powerful speed figure last time out. He’s protected today under the starter’s allowance conditions of the race – a good sign – and if the J. Mullins-trained gelding can turn in two alike he’ll be tough right back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with Fast Cotton, the slightly more trustworthy of the two, getting top billing.
RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Savvy Gal; 6-Guitty

Forecast: Guitty broke her maiden in her U.S debut over this course and distance in early September and a similar effort today will make her tough to beat right back in this first-level allowance grass miler for juvenile fillies. She packs a powerful late kick and in a race that should have a normal to fast early pace the French-bred filly seems capable of producing the last run once again. Savvy Girl lands the good rail and will take them as far as she can on the front end. A respectable fourth in the Surfer Girl Stakes last month at Santa Anita, the daughter of Street Sense graduated over this course in her debut, switches to R. Bejarano, and has three recent easy workouts at San Luis Rey Downs to tick her over. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have extra tickets keying Guitty on top.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Jeffnjohn’sthundr; 5-Absolute Unit; 6-Authentic

Forecast: Absolute Unit has done everything like a quality colt for P. Eurton and though his work tab doesn’t show any fancy fast drills, the son of Will Take Charge is a beautiful mover with plenty of speed and will get a chance to show it when it matters in the afternoon. The barn doesn’t have a great record with debut winners, but this colt may prove the exception to the rule. Authentic has shown enough in the a.m. for B. Baffert to expect a good effort in his debut and due to his connections and the two recent bullet gate works the son of Into Mischief is certain to get plenty play on the tote. We doubt he’s any kind of world beater, but he should be competitive, so we’ll toss him in. Jeffnjohn’sthundr has the benefit of a prior run, having finished an okay third in his debut in a strong race at Santa Anita. The son of Union Rags has every right to produce a significant forward move with that bit of experience behind him, so we’ll include him on a ticket or two in the rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Overjoyed; 3-Beautiful Thunder; 9-Lookingtogeteven

Forecast: Lookingtogeteven flashed plenty of promise in her debut when rallying from far back into the teeth of a modest pace to finish third, but then missed the entire Santa Anita fall meeting (and went a month without a workout) due to some undisclosed physical ailment. She’s had two recent moderate drills, so we can’t be sure how cranked up she is, but if the J. Cassidy-trained daughter of Ghostzapper returns as well as she left she’ll be tough to contain. Overjoyed ran reasonably well when debuting in a turf stakes here during the summer meeting and then failed to threaten when apparently uncomfortable over the Santa Anita main track last month. Back on grass today, the N. Drysdale-trained filly should be heard from in the final furlong. Beautiful Thunder has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern for B. Koriner and may be quick enough to be the controlling speed from her favorable inside draw. On pedigree she should enjoy the added distance and seems likely to produce a forward move in the speed figure department. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Lookingtogeteven slightly on top.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Principe Carlo; 3-Union Ride; 6-Posterize

Forecast: Principe Carlo missed by a neck as the favorite in a recent $40,000 claiming sprint but ran well enough to expect a similar effort despite the slight raise in class. He was a voided claim two runs back in a dominating victory over this main track, so if he has another good one in him the M. Polanco-trained colt should be in the battle once again. Union Ride just edged ‘Carlo by a head in that common race at Santa Anita Oct. 18 and must be given a good look right back. Though fourth in his only previous outing over the Del Mar main track, the H. Palma-trained gelding actually earned a career top speed figure in that event, one that would be good enough to beat this field. Posterize, the third head on the wire in the same race that the other two main contenders exit, is drawn nicely and should be part of the pace throughout. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics – they’re very tough to separate – with a slight preference on top to Principe Carlo.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Proud Pedro; 3-Ocean Fury; 5-Bob and Jackie

Forecast: There are several question marks surrounding the main contenders in this listed grass stakes for 3-year-olds, so tread lightly. Bob and Jackie, away since winning the Eddie Logan S. at Santa Anita last December and a successful over Omaha Beach when breaking his maiden over this course as a 2-year-old, returns for R. Baltas (a strong 24% with layoff runners) and will be dangerous if fit and ready. The work tab looks okay, not spectacular, so he’s a hard one to gauge, but certainly a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Ocean Fury is wheeled back in a week after finishing unplaced in the Twilight Derby-G2 at Santa Anita. This is a considerably easier spot, and the drop back to a mile won’t hurt, so the D. O’Neill-trained colt will be a major player if the short rest isn’t an issue. Proud Pedro, freshened since July, may find a mile a tad sharp for his liking, but on numbers he’s a fit and the works indicate he’sbe ready for a good effort. Look for this L. Powell-trained French-bred to be running on late.
RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Defense Wins; 5-Uncaptured Hero

Forecast: The finale in an expensive maiden claiming sprint for juveniles that didn’t come up particularly strong. Defense Wins, third in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 three runs back as a maiden but non-competitive in his last pair, drops to a realistic spot and seems like the logical top pick. Based on speed figures and company lines, he’ll be hard to beat. Uncaptured Hero flashed good speed before weakening in the final furlong when finishing fourth in a maiden special weight affair at Los Alamitos in September. It was a decent race for that track and he has every right to step forward with that effort underneath him. The R. Baltas-trained could get brave if he can shake loose early and is worth including at least as a back-up or a saver.