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Sunday, November 10: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

November 10, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in boldface.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Octopus; 6-Mahi Mahi; 7-Nonno’s Polaris

Forecast: Mahi Mahi was as flat as a pancake in his local debut at Santa Anita, failing to pick up the bridle at any stage and winding up a non-threatening fourth, beaten 10 lengths, as the even money choice in a maiden $50,000 affair last month. A strong runner-up in a Bay Area maiden $25,000 event two runs back charts well here, so we’ll give the J. Wong-trained colt a chance to make amends under the assumption that he’ll handle the Del Mar main track a lot better than he did the one in Arcadia. Nonno’s Polaris, beaten a head in his debut with a competitive speed figure vs. softer, moves up a notch while adding blinkers and landing the favorable outside draw. If he produces a forward move as expected, the H. Palma-trained col will be right there again. Octopus drops to his lowest level ever for P. Eurton and is the likely choice and one to beat. A repeat of his race before last – a decent third place effort vs. straight maidens at Los Alamitos – probably will beat this field if repeated. This race requires a spread, for sure, so we’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and then press a bit keying Mahi Mahi on top.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Empress of Lov; 3-Princess Dorian

Forecast: This extended claiming sprint for fillies and mares should boil down to two main contenders. Princess Dorian just won for $10,000 and today shows up in a bottom-rung $8,000 affair, not a healthy sign, but if she has at least one good one left she can score again. The Andrew Lerner-trained mare is winless in five prior starts over the Del Mar main track, but those outings came against much tougher foes. Empress of Lov seeks her fourth straight win but her last two scores came at Los Alamitos, and form from there doesn’t always translate to Del Mar’s deeper strip. However, she’s always been genuine and versatile and can win on the front end or from off the pace. We’ll give a very slight edge on top to Princess Dorian but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Da Kine; 3-Ghost Street

Forecast: Ghost Street is lightly raced with plenty of improvement in him, and the Ghostzapper gelding gets ideal conditions to step forward in a big way in this nine-furlong turf affair for older maidens. A close fifth with trouble in his most recent outing in a hot pace miler, he’ll thoroughly enjoy the softer splits that he’ll likely face today, and with his kind of tactical speed the P. Gallagher-trained four-year-old should have every chance to earned his diploma at a nice price. Da Kine is worth a ticket or two as a saver or back-up in your rolling exotics. The Will Take Charge colt continues to train sharply at San Luis Rey Downs for high-percentage trainer R. Baltas and finally gets a chance to show his stuff over a distance of ground (and grass). From the rail there’s a likelihood that he’ll inherit the role as the controlling speed, and if not respected could take the field a very long way.

RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Mike Operator; 5-Lord Adare; 6-Silver Fury

Forecast: Lord Adare, a first-time blinker play, is certain to attract plenty of play as he plummets from straight maiden company all the way down to the maiden $20,000 level for the always dangerous Hess-Desormeaux team. He has back numbers that are more than good enough to beat this field, and a repeat of his race-before-last likely will get the job done. But with this pattern, you can’t fully trust him, so we’ll be backing him up with two others in our rolling exotics. Silver Fury is an 11-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but this is first start in a day short of one year and he could be a better type this time around for B. Heap, who has solid stats with layoff runners. The son of Old Fashioned should be running on late, a style that is often promoted by the local main track, and at 20-1 on the morning line he offers excellent long shot value. Mike Operator, in the money in his last three, has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, and his race over this track in August – a good runner-up performance at this level – charts very well in this modest event.

RACE 5: Post 2:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Red Livy; 7-Miss Hot Legs

Forecast: Miss Hot Legs is overdue for another win and shouldn’t have any excuses from her cozy outside draw in this abbreviated turf sprint for first-level allowance fillies and mares. Second after a poor start in a similar grass dash at Santa Anita last month, the daughter of Verrazano projects to secure a nice stalking spot and then have every chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. Red Livy is a sharp Bay Area invader with three straight wins at Golden Gate Fields. She’s fast on numbers and has moved all the way up the ladder since being claimed here during the summer meeting for a paltry $8,000. The B. McLean-trained mare is winless in five career starts over the Del Mar turf course but she’s clearly better now than she’s ever been. We’ll give Miss Hot Legs the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Prayer Warrior; 4-Tiger Strike

Forecast: Tiger Strike was simply second best in a similar allowance optional claiming sprint for state-bred horses at Sant a Anita last month, but it was just his third career start and the son of Smiling Tiger has plenty of room for further improvement. The C. Dollase-trained gelding should be within striking range throughout and rates a slight edge in a competitive dash that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Prayer Warrior, versatile, genuine, and consistent, returns to dirt, probably his preferred surface. The J. Metz-trained son of Ministers Wild Cat has a right to return to winning form from a second flight, stalking position. The winner should be one of these t wo, so we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with Tiger Strike on top.

RACE 7: Post 3:33 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Murad Khan; 4-Wound Tight

Forecast: Wound Tight earned a career top speed figure when nosed out in a similar first-level allowance turf miler at Santa Anita last month and nothing more will be needed for the Coil gelding to return to winning form today. Regular rider R. Bejarano should have him in an ideal pace-stalking position every step of the way. Murad Khan was visually quite impressive beating a restricted $32,000 claiming field in August over this course and distance and looks live on the one-level raise for new trainer J. Sadler. If he can turn in two alike the French-bred gelding will be heard from in the final furlong. This race should come down to these two and both are “must uses” in rolling exotic play. We’ll have a few extra tickets keying Wound Tight on top.

RACE 8: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-Leucothea

Forecast: Leucothea, a 14-length winner over high priced maiden claimers here in August and most recently very impressive dominating her outclassed rivals in the Anoakia Stakes by more than eight lengths at Santa Anita, seems well-spotted for another runaway score in this year’s edition of the Desi Arnaz Stakes for juvenile fillies. However, she’ll be a very short price – deservedly so – and won’t offer any real wagering value. You can use her a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.

RACE 9: Post 4:33 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Much More Halo; 8-Frasard; 11-Royal Act

Forecast: This maiden turf event miler for juveniles came up usually strong and it will take a pretty good colt to win it. Frasard makes his U.S. debut for L. Powell (good stats with European imports) and the English-bred colt brings with him form that should be good enough to beat this field. Second vs. winners in his last pair, most recently when 13 lengths clear of the rest in a 10-runner field, he’ll race with blinkers following a nice series of local workouts that should have him primed and ready for a winning effort in his first outing since early July. Royal Act is a very well-regarded son of American Pharoah in the P. Eurton barn. His works have been excellent, but he had the misfortune of drawing the extreme outside 11 post position, so his task won’t be easy. Make no mistake, though, this colt can run, and you have to use him somewhere. Much More Halo closed a gap but too late in a turf sprint at Santa Anita while needing the experience and seems certain to improve on the stretch-out for B. Baffert. The barn hits at 24% with second timers and this son of More Than Ready could easily take a giant step forward today.