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Friday, November 15: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

November 15, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Hartel; 5-Swamp Souffle

Forecast: Hartel has rising speed figures for the hot P. Miller barn and though winless in seven starts in 2019 rates top billing over a course he’s shown he likes. Not necessarily a need-the-lead type but probably most comfortable on the front end, the son of City Zip should be tough to run down given the projected pace scenario. Swamp Souffle just won a $50,000 claimer and drops to the $40,000 level today, not necessarily a suspicious move as this is restricted to 3-year-olds and not many more of those will be available as the year concludes. The son off Bodemeister is the most dangerous of the closing types and with a little bit of help up front could produce the last run. We’ll give Hartel the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Love of Art; 5-Heart’s Passion

Forecast: Love of Art drops to her lowest level ever and the Bay Area shipper seems to have found a proper spot to return to winning form. Her recent speed figures are solid for this level, and with the switch to A. Cedillo the daughter of Declaration of War should be along in time. Heart’s Passion, away for seven weeks after finishing second in her first outing in nearly 10 months, obviously has a spotty pattern but she’s stretching out to her preferred trip and shows a bullet six furlong workout at Los Alamitos two weeks ago for the J. Hollendorfer barn, so we’ll assume she’s doing well. Off her best race, she’s right there.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Venetian Harbor; 4-Beguiled; 6-Morning Addiction

Forecast: The main contenders in this five-furlong grass dash for juvenile fillies are first-time starters from capable outfits, so we’ll spread the race in rolling exotic play while giving preference on top to Morning Addiction. The P. Eurton-trained daughter of Carpe Diem has done plenty right in the morning and appears blessed with excellent speed, so in an open affair let’s put her on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1. Her dam was a highly capable turf sprinter and maybe this filly will be, too. Venetian Harbor and Beguiled have done all of their preparatory work out of sight at San Luis Rey Downs, so we’re largely guessing with both. ‘Harbor, from the R. Baltas barn, lands F. Prat and has several workout times that indicate plenty of talent, while Beguiled, a daughter of Orb from the P. D’Amato barn, sports a healthy work tab for a trainer whose first-timers often outrun their workouts.

RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Eternal Endeavor; 3-D’s Lovely Sophia; 7-Rizzi’s Honors

Forecast: Here’s a spread race for starter’s allowance ($32,000) fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on the main track. D’s Lovely Sophia seems as good as any, so we’ll give her a slight edge on top. Both of her prior races over the Del Mar main track – a starter’s allowance win and a runner-up effort in a first-level allowance sprint - earned very strong speed figures and a repeat of either one of those outings today should be good enough. Eternal Endeavor returned off a long layoff and crushed restricted (nw-2) $25,000 foes with a sharp speed figure last time out and if she can duplicate that performance today she’ll be right there. Rizzi’s Honors lands the cozy outside post and is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track. She has issues – she was a voided claim for $8,000 three runs back – but has run well in two subsequent starts and is protected by M. Glatt, so we’ll assume she’s doing well and will fire her best shot.

RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Red Bunting; 2-Saburai; 9-Flying to the Line

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) turf miler for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares is another event requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. Flying to the Line gets the worst of the draw but she’s won over this course in the past and may have enough early speed to get over and secure her coveted front-running trip. Fresh from earning a career-top speed figure, she switches to A. Cedillo, one of this barn’s go-to jockeys, and sports a bullet workout at San Luis Rey Downs since raced. We’ll give her the edge on top. Red Bunting drops to her lowest level ever, lands the good rail, retains D. Van Dyke, and will be a strong late threat if she gets a decent pace up front and good racing luck from the quarter pole home. She’s strong in the speed figure department and has run well over this course in the past. Saburai is a one-paced grinder with just won victory from 18 career outings, so she’s certainly not one to bank on, but t he V. Cerin-trained mare is competitive on numbers and projects to be in a good pace-stalking position from her inside draw and have every chance when the pressure is turned on.

RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Temple Bar; 6-Knifes Edge; 7-Itsthattime

Forecast: Temple Bar has steadily rising speed figures, stretches out for the first time to a distance he’s bred to like, is comfortably drawn inside and exits a strong, productive heat. The son of Temple City shows a good, healthy work pattern for J. Hollendorfer and seems primed to produce another forward move, one that may land him in the winner’s circle. Knifes Edge exits a series of maiden special weight events and certainly should appreciate this drop into the maiden $50,000 ranks. On numbers he’s a fit and we suspect the son of First Samurai will find himself in an ideal pace-stalking position outside. Itshattime is slower on numbers than the other two main contenders but has an improving pattern and is bred to handle a mile. The J. Bonde-trained gelding switches to R. Bejarano and at 8-1 on the morning line is worth including on a ticket or two.

RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Doc Yco Cheeks

Forecast: Doc Yco Cheeks looked quite good beating state-bred maidens on turf at this mile trip in just her second career outing at Santa Anita last month and seems more than capable of repeating on the raise from her comfortable inside draw. The daughter of Unusual Heat earned a good speed figure in victory and there doesn’t appear to be any reason why she can’t come right back and add to her resume. At 5/2 on the morning line with R. Bejarano staying aboard for P. Eurton, she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tigre Di Slugo; 5-Loafers Boy; 9-Grandpa Louie

Forecast: Tigre Di Slugo was a $190,000 yearling purchase back in 2016 and finally makes it to the post for M. Puype in this state-bred maiden special weight sprint. The son of Smiling Tiger is bred for much speed, gets F. Prat, and has worked well enough to be live at first asking. Additionally, this barn has terrific stats with debut runners. Loafers Boy has shown some ability in the morning for A. Lerner and is worth some consideration in rolling exotic play. A bullet six-furlong workout in 1:13 3/5 over the deep Santa Anita main track nine days ago is hard to ignore. Grandpa Louie, away since March, gets the favorable outside draw and should be part of the pace throughout. The P. Miller-trained gelding, second twice in three outings vs. similar competition, could easily be a better type this time around and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.