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Saturday, November 16: Del Mar Analysis/Wagering

by Jeff Siegel

November 16, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

Today’s Day Makers: View Video

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Dubnation

Forecast: Dubnation earned a career top speed figure when breaking his maiden for $20,000 last time out and is realistically spotted in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 affair. Second in his only prior outing over the Del Mar main track, the P. D’Amato-trained gelding probably will go lower than his morning line of 5/2 as a logical top pick and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-King Abner; 4-Jalen Journey

Forecast: Jalen Journey wasn’t quite up to graded stakes company in his first two local outings but shows up today in a second level allowance main track miler for hot trainer P. Miller and projects to be the controlling speed. Untested around two turns (he did win a one-turn mile in Florida), the son of With Distinction is very fast on speed figures so we suspect he’ll get the trip, but as protection we’ll also include on a ticket or two King Abner, a two-time winner over the local main track and a willing third in a state-bred turf stakes at Santa Anita last month.
RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-Zipper Mischief

Forecast: Zipper Mischief had no visible excuse when missing at 40 cents on the dollar in a similar first-level allowance turf sprint at Santa Anita last month but both of his efforts over the Del Mar course during the summer meeting were quite good, so we’re expecting the B. Heap-trained colt to regain his top form. The pace flow looks comfortable, so a gate-to-wire result seems quite plausible, but at another short price. We’ll make him a no-value rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Luck Is My Name; 6-Brazilian Summer

Forecast: Brazilian Summer finished a solid second in a similar maiden $20,000 claimer last month at Santa Anita and with further improvement the lightly raced gelding should be able to earn his diploma today. With just three lifetime outings, the M. Chew-trained son of Gervinho has upside the others don’t, so we’ll put him on top while also including in our rolling exotics Luck Is My Name, a Bay Area shipper trying conventional dirt for the first time. He’s a fit on speed figures and has a one-paced, grinding style that might work well over the deepish Del Mar main track.
RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-French Getaway; 5-Moonlight Drive; 9-Offshore

Forecast: Offshore missed at even money in a similar mid-level claiming turf event at Santa Anita last month but we’ll give him a chance to make amends over a turf course he’s previously won twice on. The R. Baltas-trained gelding switches to A. Cedillo and looks capable of producing the last run, his outside draw notwithstanding. Moonlight Drive won the race that Offshore just finished third in and must be given a look right back, though the veteran Italian-bred gelding is winless in six previous outings over the Del Mar turf course. French Getaway lands the good rail while dropping in class and should fit nicely at this level. A win over this course and distance during the summer meeting is a positive factor and two subsequent failures on dirt probably can be excused. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Offshore.
RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Night On the Town; 7-Parkour; 8-Paige Anne

Forecast: The R. Mandella barn holds the aces here. Parkour chased home a very good filly in her debut when a distant second and with that effort behind her looks primed for a winning effort in a competitive maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies. This trainer is solid with second time starters, so we’ll expect the daughter of Carpe Diem to produce a forward move, one that earns her top billing. Stable mate Night on the Town is the one to fear most and attracts F. Prat, so she must be respected. A series of sharp drills should have her fit and ready, so she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Paige Anne, with the always dangerous route-to-sprint angle in her chart, is drawn comfortably outside and adds blinkers. With the cut back in trip, the daughter of Take Charge Indy could be a serious late threat, so be sure to include her as a back-up or a saver.
RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Kitty Boom Boom; 5-Sedamar

Forecast: Kitty Boom Boom hasn’t been out since winning a state-bred stakes at Golden Gate Fields last spring but if she’s ready she can return a winner in this entry-level allowance middle distance turf event restricted to 3-year-old fillies. The works are steady but unspectacular, so there’s a question as to how cranked up she is, but the R. Baltas barn has superior stats (25%) with layoff runners so we’ll assume that she’s fit enough. Sedamar is racing in good, consistent form and shows rising speed figures, so the daughter of Richard’s Kid, with two prior wins over the Del Mar turf course must be considered a major player. She’ll likely fold into a good second flight early position and then have every chance from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to Kitty Boom Boom.
RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: X
Use: 5-High Velocity; 6-Strongconstitution

Forecast: This is a race we’ll pass, as the two listed above are hard to separate and both will be a short price in a small field. High Velocity won at first asking like a good colt and has trained well since, so the B. Baffert-trained colt should be tough to deny despite the raise into graded stakes company. Strongconstitution lands the cozy outside post and has two excellent races under his belt, including a narrow defeat in the Sunny Slope Stakes last month at Santa Anita. On pure numbers these colts are equally fast, so rather than split hairs we’ll double the race in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.
RACE 9: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Abusive Gary; 8-Play Money

Forecast: Play Money is overdue for a win and gets ideal conditions to break through. After knocking on the door in his last four starts, the D. Hofmans-trained colt should settle into a soft pace-stalking trip and then be able to seal the deal. Abusive Gary returns as a gelding in his first start since New Year’s Day. The works are solid, though his numbers are average at best. The bulk of our action goes to Play Money, but we’ll have a ticket or two backing up with Abusive Gary.