Log In

Friday, November 29 Del Mar Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

November 29, 2019

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, Pick-3s, Pick-4s, Pick-5s, and the Pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

The selections are available every racing day no later than 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
B=Solid Play.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Cardiff Cay; 3-Paint Me Lucky

Forecast: Cardiff Cay makes his first start on dirt after displaying an improving pattern in three grass outings to begin his career. A closing third when favored in a maiden special weight turf outing in his local debut three weeks ago, the son of Medaglia d’Oro has the pedigree to run just as well on the main track, if not better. M. Smith got to know him last time out and stays aboard. Paint Me Lucky makes his first start since June of last year and it is encouraging that as a first time gelding he remains protected by B. Baffert in straight maiden company. Recent works are pretty good, so we’ll assume he will return as least as well as he left. Let’s try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Cardiff Cay.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Aggressivity

Forecast: Aggressivity was a respectable but distant runner-up in a maiden special weight sprint last month at Santa Anita and today drops into the maiden $40,000 ranks while trying to break his maiden late in his 4-year-old campaign. This seems like a logical spot, so there should be no excuses for the R. Ellis-trained gelding, who based strictly on speed figures lays over this modest field. At 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the son of Dialed In isn’t likely to offer much in the way of wagering value but if nothing else we can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 3: Post 1:32 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Don’tteasethetiger; 4-More Honor; 6-Whatsittoya

Forecast Here’s a spread affair, a restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming extended sprint for older horses. Whatsittoya earned a career top speed figure when crushing a slightly softer field in early August over the Del Mar main track but hasn’t been out since. The R. Hess, Jr.-trained gelding shows a spotty recent work tab, so this unhealthy pattern makes backing the son of Atta Boy Roy somewhat problematic. Certainly, he can win if he repeats his last outing but that may be a big if. More Honor plummets in class seeking his proper level for the always-dangerous M. Glatt/F. Prat team and may have found his friends. All of his recent efforts have come on grass, but the son of More Than Ready did run well on dirt early in his career, so we’re thinking the surface switch won’t be an issue. He’s a fit on numbers and should get the second flight, stalking trip that he desires. Don’tteasethetiger was all out to beat a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 field at Santa Anita earlier this month and better will be needed for a successful repeat on the raise. We’ll include the G. Vallejo-trained gelding in our rolling exotics on a few back-up tickets because he’s won over this track and distance in the past and shows two good workouts since his victory which gives hope that he can produce another forward move.

RACE 4: Post 2:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Impression; 6-Dukes Up

Forecast: Impression looked good beating a $20,000 claiming group over this track and distance earlier this month and this double jump in class is a sign of confidence from his high percentage connections that the veteran Smart Strike gelding came out of the race in peak condition. On numbers alone he belongs at this tougher level, so we’ll put him on top while also including Dukes Up in our rolling exotics. He’s a first-off-the-claim for P. Eurton, retains A. Cedillo, and always has been thoroughly genuine and consistent, having finished first or second in 15 of 31 career starts.

RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Secret Square; 5-La Croix

Forecast: Secret Square stumbled badly at the start when a runner-up at 50 cents on the dollar in a similar maiden $50,000 maiden claiming sprint for state-bred juvenile fillies last month at Santa Anita but it was a decent race for the level and not much more should be needed for the daughter of Square Eddie to make amends in this moderate event. Her speed figures have risen with each of her three starts, so with another forward move the J. Sadler-trained filly should be able to earn her diploma. La Croix is an intriguing Bay Area shipper that is worth including on a few tickets in rolling exotic play. A non-threatening fifth in a better-than-par straight maiden juvenile filly dash at Golden Gate Fields earlier this month, she projects as a strong fit at this level on this circuit, and with the addition of blinkers the daughter of Congrats seems likely to produce a forward move.

RACE 6: Post 3:04 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Trouville; 6-It’s a Riddle

Forecast: Trouville flashed improvement to finish second while more than five lengths clear of the rest at this level last month at Santa Anita and today will race with blinkers. With F. Prat riding her back for the L. Powell barn, she seems the logical top pick and we suspect she’ll go lower than her morning line of 5/2. It’s a Riddle is a bit faster on pure numbers than Trouville and should get plenty of play as well. Though missing at even money when second while more than five lengths clear of the rest last time out, the daughter of Merit Man actually ran a winning race, one that if repeated today could easily be good enough. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to Trouville.

RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Unbroken Star; 6-Canadian Game; 7-Mutineer

Forecast: Mutineer drops from a first-level allowance main track miler to a starter’s allowance affair and against this easier group the D. O’Neill-trained gelding looks well-spotted to regain his winning form. Twice second in four prior outings over the Del Mar main track, the son of Into Mischief picks up R. Bejarano and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home to wear down the leaders. Unbroken Star got lost on grass when finishing far back in a similar starter’s race last month but remains protected by M. Puype, switches to F. Prat, and broke his maiden over this course and distance during the summer meeting. He definitely can bounce back. Canadian Game, in the money in his last three starts with speed figures that make him a solid fit, returns to dirt after a couple of okay tries on grass and should be set for a forward move. The main concern, of course, is that he’s always preferred to run second or third (10 times) rather than win (once) in 16 prior outings.

RACE 8: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Truck Salesman; 7-Top Brass; 10-Madman

Forecast: Top Brass missed at 6/5 vs. $20,000 sellers in his last start but earned a strong figure and may prove to be a timely claim by R. Hess, Jr., who protects him today in a first-level allowance sprint while switching to V. Espinoza. A four-time winner at this six-furlong trip and an admirable seven-for-16 overall, the hard-knocking son of Arch likes to settle in mid-pack and then kick it in late, a style that usually works very well over the Del Mar main track. There’s some value to be found at or near his morning line of 9/2. Madman won for fun in his debut last May at Santa Anita while earning a good speed figure but then, according to Daily Racing Form, went to the sidelines with a chip in an ankle. He returns for R. Baltas (a strong 25% with layoff runners) while switching to F. Prat, so the gelded son of Violence is a major contender and a “must use.” Truck Salesman is buried on the rail but a recent outing on grass can be dismissed and a repeat of his runaway starter’s allowance score two runs back charts very well with these. He’ll also be adding blinkers (though he’s worn them in the past). Toss him in on a ticker or two.

RACE 9: Post 4:34 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 6-Promise Nothing; 8-Eustace

Forecast: Eustace drops to his lowest level ever and returns from the Bay Area after a couple of non-productive outings over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface. His two races at Del Mar during the summer meeting chart quite well in this maiden $32,000 sprint for juveniles, so at 5-1 on the morning line he’s worth consideration both in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play. Promise Nothing drops again in class while seeking his proper level and based on numbers he’s found it today. A respectable third in a maiden $50,000 sprint at Santa Anita last time out, the son of Street Boss was almost three lengths clear of the rest while finishing with interest, and not much more should be needed to make him a major player. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but feel free to include as many as you can afford to in a race that contains a lot of question marks.